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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-06-10 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-06-10
115 matched props 65 unmatched
Newer: 2026-06-11 Older: 2026-06-09

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 115
Grouped Pitchers 18
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 65
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-09 2026-06-08

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-06-10 | Raw sportsbook rows: 115 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-06-10/strikeout_edges_2026-06-10.json
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs AZ | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap Over +31.71%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap +31.71% / Under gap --
Over +31.71%
Model O 58.7% | U 41.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.2
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs NYM | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.16
Strongest Gap Under +17.65%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -23.63% / Under gap +17.65%
Under +17.65%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -23.05% / Under gap +16.06%
Under +16.06%
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +106
Over gap -19.84% / Under gap +12.97%
Under +12.97%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -19.49% / Under gap +12.49%
Under +12.49%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -6.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -9.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -16.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -21.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.5% | U 61.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.6
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs SEA | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.83
Strongest Gap Under +17.40%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -23.57% / Under gap +17.40%
Under +17.40%
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -102
Over gap -20.49% / Under gap +15.44%
Under +15.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U -102
Over gap -22.08% / Under gap +15.44%
Under +15.44%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -20.49% / Under gap +13.56%
Under +13.56%
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -9.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -14.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -21.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -24.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.5
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs CWS | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 6.26
Strongest Gap Under +15.80%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -110 / U -115
Over gap -21.67% / Under gap +15.80%
Under +15.80%
FanDuel
7.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -21.21% / Under gap +14.34%
Under +14.34%
FanDuel
7.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -21.21% / Under gap +14.34%
Under +14.34%
FanDuel
8.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap -15.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -23.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -26.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -26.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.7% | U 69.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.8
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs BOS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.29
Strongest Gap Under +13.59%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -19.56% / Under gap +13.59%
Under +13.59%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -18.73% / Under gap +11.44%
Under +11.44%
FanDuel
5.5
O +128 / U -158
Over gap -16.47% / Under gap +11.37%
Under +11.37%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -17.25% / Under gap +11.37%
Under +11.37%
FanDuel
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap -5.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap -10.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -18.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -23.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -24.62% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.4% | U 72.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8
Ryne Nelson headshot

Ryne Nelson
AZ vs MIA | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Under +9.59%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap -15.59% / Under gap +9.59%
Under +9.59%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U -104
Over gap -15.98% / Under gap +8.86%
Under +8.86%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U -104
Over gap -15.98% / Under gap +8.86%
Under +8.86%
FanDuel
6.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -5.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -9.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -16.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -18.61% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.8
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs KC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.52
Strongest Gap Over +7.04%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +7.04% / Under gap --
Over +7.04%
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +6.30% / Under gap --
Over +6.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap +3.74% / Under gap --
Over +3.74%
DraftKings
4.5
O -157 / U +123
Over gap +0.05% / Under gap -5.98%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -0.40% / Under gap -6.59%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -0.40% / Under gap -6.59%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -0.40% / Under gap -6.89%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -4.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -5.77% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.8% | U 78.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.9
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs WSH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.52
Strongest Gap Over +7.04%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +580 / U --
Over gap +7.04% / Under gap --
Over +7.04%
FanDuel
6.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap +5.59% / Under gap --
Over +5.59%
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -160
Over gap +2.63% / Under gap -7.65%
Over +2.63%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap +1.47% / Under gap -7.65%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +0.66% / Under gap -7.65%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap -2.20% / Under gap -3.74%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -3.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -450 / U --
Over gap -6.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -6.96% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.8% | U 78.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.5
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs CHC | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.16
Strongest Gap Over +6.51%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap +6.51% / Under gap -12.61%
Over +6.51%
FanDuel
3.5
O -105 / U -115
Over gap +6.03% / Under gap -10.74%
Over +6.03%
Model O 57.2% | U 42.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.5
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs CIN | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.69
Strongest Gap Under +5.12%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap -10.10% / Under gap +5.12%
Under +5.12%
FanDuel
5.5
O -142 / U +116
Over gap -10.10% / Under gap +5.12%
Under +5.12%
DraftKings
6.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -9.67% / Under gap +3.79%
Under +3.79%
FanDuel
8.5
O +550 / U --
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +270 / U --
Over gap -3.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -7.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -8.99% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +105 / U --
Over gap -13.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -14.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -14.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.1
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs MIN | 8 books
Play
Adj K 5.53
Strongest Gap Over +4.32%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +4.32% / Under gap --
Over +4.32%
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap +1.99% / Under gap --
Over +1.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -142
Over gap -0.04% / Under gap -4.94%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -0.91% / Under gap -4.94%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -2.28% / Under gap -3.89%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -7.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -8.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -580 / U --
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.9% | U 78.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.9
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs BAL | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.50
Strongest Gap Over +3.33%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +3.33% / Under gap --
Over +3.33%
FanDuel
6.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap +1.58% / Under gap --
Over +1.58%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -2.72% / Under gap -4.15%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -140
Over gap -2.72% / Under gap -4.15%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -3.20% / Under gap -2.90%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -4.18% / Under gap -3.27%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -8.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -8.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -600 / U --
Over gap -10.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.5% | U 78.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.5
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs TEX | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Over +3.22%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +640 / U --
Over gap +3.22% / Under gap --
Over +3.22%
FanDuel
6.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap +2.08% / Under gap --
Over +2.08%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +1.19% / Under gap -8.17%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -144 / U +116
Over gap -4.34% / Under gap -0.98%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -152 / U +116
Over gap -5.64% / Under gap -0.98%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +146 / U --
Over gap -1.28% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -2.22% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -8.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -9.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.7% | U 83.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.1
Max Scherzer headshot

Max Scherzer
TOR vs PHI | 4 books
Play
Adj K 4.12
Strongest Gap Over +3.09%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +3.09% / Under gap --
Over +3.09%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +0.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +114
Over gap -1.76% / Under gap -3.30%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -3.75% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.8% | U 75.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs COL | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.28
Strongest Gap No Play +1.31%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -7.45% / Under gap +1.31%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap -5.07% / Under gap +0.19%
No Play
Model O 42.5% | U 57.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.1
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs SD | 7 books
No Play
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap No Play +0.65%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -6.71% / Under gap +0.65%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -138
Over gap -7.65% / Under gap +0.65%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -138
Over gap -7.65% / Under gap +0.65%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +490 / U --
Over gap -0.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +225 / U --
Over gap -3.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -11.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -12.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.4% | U 58.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.2
Carlos Rodón headshot

Carlos Rodón
NYY vs CLE | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.61
Strongest Gap No Play -0.92%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -6.06% / Under gap -0.92%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -108 / U -122
Over gap -4.49% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -2.82% / Under gap -3.38%
No Play
Model O 47.4% | U 52.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.5
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs TOR | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.90
Strongest Gap No Play -1.80%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap -4.20% / Under gap -1.80%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -3.00% / Under gap -3.93%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -3.00% / Under gap -3.93%
No Play
Model O 51.5% | U 48.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.