Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-26 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-26

54 matched props 15 unmatched

Newer: 2026-07-27 Older: 2026-07-25

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 15

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-26 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-26/strikeout_edges_2026-07-26.json

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.36

Strongest Gap Under +22.42%

Best Line 8.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

8.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -29.20% / Under gap +22.42%

Under +22.42%

DraftKings

8.5

O -101 / U -127

Over gap -28.23% / Under gap +22.03%

Under +22.03%

FanDuel

8.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -26.06% / Under gap +20.00%

Under +20.00%

Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.9

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs SEA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.74

Strongest Gap Under +17.33%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -24.44% / Under gap +17.33%

Under +17.33%

DraftKings

7.5

O +113 / U -149

Over gap -22.61% / Under gap +15.82%

Under +15.82%

FanDuel

7.5

O +128 / U -164

Over gap -19.52% / Under gap +13.54%

Under +13.54%

Model O 24.3% | U 75.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.2

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs CLE | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.20

Strongest Gap Under +14.29%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -20.27% / Under gap +14.29%

Under +14.29%

DraftKings

5.5

O +116 / U -150

Over gap -20.27% / Under gap +13.97%

Under +13.97%

BetMGM

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -20.27% / Under gap +12.98%

Under +12.98%

Model O 26.0% | U 74.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.3

Emmet Sheehan

LAD vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.96

Strongest Gap Under +14.01%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -137 / U +107

Over gap -20.13% / Under gap +14.01%

Under +14.01%

FanDuel

5.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +12.82%

Under +12.82%

BetMGM

5.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -16.87% / Under gap +9.94%

Under +9.94%

Model O 37.7% | U 62.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.8

Walker Buehler

SD vs MIA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.41

Strongest Gap Under +13.21%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -169 / U +131

Over gap -19.33% / Under gap +13.21%

Under +13.21%

FanDuel

3.5

O -164 / U +128

Over gap -18.62% / Under gap +12.64%

Under +12.64%

BetMGM

3.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -14.83% / Under gap +7.72%

Under +7.72%

Model O 43.5% | U 56.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.7

Kyle Freeland

COL vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.63

Strongest Gap Under +13.13%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +102 / U -129

Over gap -18.96% / Under gap +13.13%

Under +13.13%

FanDuel

4.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -18.48% / Under gap +12.56%

Under +12.56%

BetMGM

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -14.91% / Under gap +7.92%

Under +7.92%

Model O 30.5% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.4

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.25

Strongest Gap Under +12.89%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O +105 / U -130

Over gap -18.19% / Under gap +12.89%

Under +12.89%

FanDuel

7.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -17.95% / Under gap +11.78%

Under +11.78%

BetMGM

6.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -18.14% / Under gap +10.85%

Under +10.85%

Model O 30.6% | U 69.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.6

Janson Junk

MIA vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.45

Strongest Gap Under +10.05%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -154 / U +119

Over gap -16.34% / Under gap +10.05%

Under +10.05%

FanDuel

3.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -11.85% / Under gap +5.71%

Under +5.71%

BetMGM

3.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -12.23% / Under gap +4.49%

Under +4.49%

Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.5

Will Warren

NYY vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.96

Strongest Gap Over +9.52%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap +9.52% / Under gap -16.64%

Over +9.52%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap +7.13% / Under gap -13.00%

Over +7.13%

DraftKings

4.5

O +117 / U -150

Over gap +6.92% / Under gap -13.00%

Over +6.92%

Model O 53.0% | U 47.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.1

Logan Gilbert

SEA vs TEX | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.12

Strongest Gap Under +7.67%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -124 / U -106

Over gap -14.49% / Under gap +7.67%

Under +7.67%

FanDuel

6.5

O -108 / U -118

Over gap -11.05% / Under gap +5.00%

Under +5.00%

BetMGM

6.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -11.51% / Under gap +4.58%

Under +4.58%

Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.8

Erick Fedde

CWS vs HOU | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.81

Strongest Gap Over +7.25%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +128 / U -164

Over gap +7.25% / Under gap -13.23%

Over +7.25%

DraftKings

3.5

O +119 / U -154

Over gap +5.45% / Under gap -11.74%

Over +5.45%

BetMGM

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +4.60% / Under gap -11.89%

Over +4.60%

Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.5

Freddy Peralta

NYM vs LAD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.94

Strongest Gap Over +4.03%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +108 / U -136

Over gap +4.03% / Under gap -9.74%

Over +4.03%

DraftKings

5.5

O +101 / U -130

Over gap +2.36% / Under gap -8.63%

Over +2.36%

BetMGM

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap +2.11% / Under gap -9.56%

Over +2.11%

Model O 52.1% | U 47.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6

Shane Baz

BAL vs ATL | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap Under +2.46%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -9.57% / Under gap +2.46%

Under +2.46%

DraftKings

5.5

O +113 / U -144

Over gap -7.74% / Under gap +1.77%

Under +1.77%

FanDuel

5.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -5.84% / Under gap -0.15%

No Play

Model O 39.2% | U 60.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0

Kevin Gausman

TOR vs BOS | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.66

Strongest Gap Over +1.85%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap +1.85% / Under gap -7.83%

Over +1.85%

DraftKings

5.5

O +111 / U -139

Over gap +0.76% / Under gap -6.31%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -1.85% / Under gap -5.60%

No Play

Model O 48.1% | U 51.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4

José Soriano

LAA vs SF | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.48

Strongest Gap No Play +1.41%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -145 / U +112

Over gap +1.41% / Under gap -7.76%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap +0.59% / Under gap -6.46%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -2.09% / Under gap -5.53%

No Play

Model O 60.6% | U 39.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.4

Framber Valdez

DET vs KC | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.09

Strongest Gap No Play +0.18%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -158 / U +123

Over gap -6.26% / Under gap +0.18%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap -4.70% / Under gap -1.28%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -2.47% / Under gap -4.98%

No Play

Model O 55.0% | U 45.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1

Andrew Abbott

CIN vs STL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.98

Strongest Gap No Play -0.67%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -6.62% / Under gap -0.67%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -5.19% / Under gap -0.89%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -149 / U +114

Over gap -5.68% / Under gap -0.89%

No Play

Model O 54.2% | U 45.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.9

Jeffrey Springs

ATH vs MIN | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.27

Strongest Gap No Play -1.72%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -155 / U +121

Over gap -1.72% / Under gap -4.31%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -158 / U +124

Over gap -2.18% / Under gap -3.70%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -2.48% / Under gap -4.51%

No Play

Model O 59.1% | U 40.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.