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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-06 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-06
33 matched props 30 unmatched
Older: 2026-09-05

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 33
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 30
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-06 | Raw sportsbook rows: 33 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-06/strikeout_edges_2026-09-06.json
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.94
Strongest Gap Under +22.88%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -118 / U -110
Over gap -29.39% / Under gap +22.88%
Under +22.88%
DraftKings
6.5
O -114 / U -114
Over gap -28.53% / Under gap +21.99%
Under +21.99%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -27.87% / Under gap +21.77%
Under +21.77%
Model O 24.7% | U 75.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.5
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs DET | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.78
Strongest Gap Under +22.80%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -119 / U -110
Over gap -29.52% / Under gap +22.80%
Under +22.80%
FanDuel
7.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -28.23% / Under gap +22.13%
Under +22.13%
Model O 24.8% | U 75.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.9
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.60
Strongest Gap Under +17.73%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -23.90% / Under gap +17.73%
Under +17.73%
DraftKings
6.5
O -123 / U -106
Over gap -21.43% / Under gap +14.81%
Under +14.81%
BetMGM
5.5
O -210 / U +155
Over gap -20.46% / Under gap +13.50%
Under +13.50%
Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.1
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs BOS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.91
Strongest Gap Over +12.70%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +12.70% / Under gap -19.68%
Over +12.70%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +10.05% / Under gap -16.19%
Over +10.05%
DraftKings
4.5
O -131 / U +102
Over gap +9.48% / Under gap -15.69%
Over +9.48%
Model O 66.2% | U 33.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.41
Strongest Gap Under +8.71%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -16.00% / Under gap +8.71%
Under +8.71%
DraftKings
7.5
O +121 / U -154
Over gap -12.66% / Under gap +6.78%
Under +6.78%
FanDuel
7.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -12.86% / Under gap +6.78%
Under +6.78%
Model O 44.8% | U 55.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 86.5
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs TB | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.90
Strongest Gap Over +7.30%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +7.30% / Under gap -13.38%
Over +7.30%
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +3.47% / Under gap -9.53%
Over +3.47%
Model O 51.5% | U 48.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.1
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.42
Strongest Gap Under +6.58%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -13.69% / Under gap +6.58%
Under +6.58%
FanDuel
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -12.26% / Under gap +6.34%
Under +6.34%
DraftKings
5.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -9.28% / Under gap +3.21%
Under +3.21%
Model O 44.6% | U 55.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.9
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs CWS | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.35
Strongest Gap Over +5.40%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U --
Over gap +5.40% / Under gap --
Over +5.40%
DraftKings
3.5
O -140 / U +109
Over gap +2.02% / Under gap -8.20%
Over +2.02%
Model O 60.4% | U 39.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.2
Jackson Jobe headshot

Jackson Jobe
DET vs CLE | 2 books
Lean
Adj K 3.70
Strongest Gap Over +2.78%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +116 / U -144
Over gap +2.78% / Under gap -8.10%
Over +2.78%
FanDuel
3.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -0.92% / Under gap -5.22%
No Play
Model O 49.1% | U 50.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.6
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs STL | 2 books
Lean
Adj K 3.94
Strongest Gap Under +1.50%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -7.49% / Under gap +1.50%
Under +1.50%
DraftKings
3.5
O -158 / U +122
Over gap -7.79% / Under gap +1.50%
Under +1.50%
Model O 53.4% | U 46.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.5
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs NYY | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.51
Strongest Gap No Play +1.20%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -117 / U -112
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap +1.20%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -5.49% / Under gap -0.52%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -4.03% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
Model O 46.0% | U 54.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.3
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs HOU | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap No Play +1.17%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -7.34% / Under gap +1.17%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +121 / U -154
Over gap -4.05% / Under gap -1.83%
No Play
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.8
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs MIL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.54
Strongest Gap No Play -1.83%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -4.95% / Under gap -1.83%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -2.27% / Under gap -3.90%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +104 / U -130
Over gap -2.75% / Under gap -2.79%
No Play
Model O 46.3% | U 53.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.