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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-04 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-04
101 matched props 67 unmatched
Older: 2026-09-03

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 101
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 67
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-04 | Raw sportsbook rows: 101 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-04/strikeout_edges_2026-09-04.json
Blake Snell headshot

Blake Snell
LAD vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.35
Strongest Gap Under +16.94%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -23.72% / Under gap +16.94%
Under +16.94%
DraftKings
7.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -21.21% / Under gap +15.11%
Under +15.11%
FanDuel
7.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -19.14% / Under gap +13.21%
Under +13.21%
Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.6
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.74
Strongest Gap Under +14.04%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -20.14% / Under gap +14.04%
Under +14.04%
DraftKings
4.5
O -103 / U -121
Over gap -18.27% / Under gap +12.78%
Under +12.78%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -18.75% / Under gap +11.97%
Under +11.97%
Model O 32.5% | U 67.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.1
Cristian Javier headshot

Cristian Javier
HOU vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.63
Strongest Gap Under +13.90%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -20.68% / Under gap +13.90%
Under +13.90%
DraftKings
4.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -16.41% / Under gap +10.44%
Under +10.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -16.19% / Under gap +10.11%
Under +10.11%
Model O 30.5% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.1
Logan Allen headshot

Logan Allen
CLE vs DET | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Over +13.81%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap +13.81% / Under gap -19.84%
Over +13.81%
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +13.61% / Under gap -19.69%
Over +13.61%
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +13.61% / Under gap -19.69%
Over +13.61%
FanDuel
4.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap +13.54% / Under gap --
Over +13.54%
FanDuel
5.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +11.94% / Under gap --
Over +11.94%
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +11.44% / Under gap -19.06%
Over +11.44%
FanDuel
2.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap +6.25% / Under gap --
Over +6.25%
Model O 59.1% | U 40.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.6
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs BAL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.70
Strongest Gap Under +13.71%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -116 / U -111
Over gap -20.02% / Under gap +13.71%
Under +13.71%
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -18.93% / Under gap +12.83%
Under +12.83%
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -18.93% / Under gap +12.83%
Under +12.83%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -16.32% / Under gap +8.87%
Under +8.87%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -7.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -13.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -16.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -22.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -24.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.2
Erick Fedde headshot

Erick Fedde
CWS vs MIN | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.07
Strongest Gap Over +13.26%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +13.26% / Under gap --
Over +13.26%
DraftKings
3.5
O +133 / U -171
Over gap +12.80% / Under gap -18.82%
Over +12.80%
FanDuel
3.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap +12.62% / Under gap -18.68%
Over +12.62%
FanDuel
3.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap +12.62% / Under gap -18.68%
Over +12.62%
BetMGM
2.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +12.30% / Under gap -19.29%
Over +12.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +11.27% / Under gap --
Over +11.27%
FanDuel
2.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap +4.14% / Under gap --
Over +4.14%
Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Max Fried headshot

Max Fried
NYY vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.29
Strongest Gap Over +12.87%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +12.87% / Under gap -18.86%
Over +12.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap +11.62% / Under gap -17.60%
Over +11.62%
BetMGM
3.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap +9.59% / Under gap -16.71%
Over +9.59%
Model O 57.9% | U 42.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.7
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs PHI | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.54
Strongest Gap Under +8.45%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -14.44% / Under gap +8.45%
Under +8.45%
FanDuel
6.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -14.44% / Under gap +8.45%
Under +8.45%
DraftKings
6.5
O -151 / U +119
Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +7.84%
Under +7.84%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -12.30% / Under gap +5.01%
Under +5.01%
FanDuel
8.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -4.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +126 / U --
Over gap -10.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -12.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -17.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -18.74% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.5% | U 53.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.4
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.12
Strongest Gap Under +7.91%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -14.69% / Under gap +7.91%
Under +7.91%
FanDuel
6.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -13.26% / Under gap +7.21%
Under +7.21%
DraftKings
6.5
O -118 / U -110
Over gap -13.26% / Under gap +6.75%
Under +6.75%
Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs CWS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.84
Strongest Gap Over +5.88%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +5.88% / Under gap --
Over +5.88%
FanDuel
5.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap +4.09% / Under gap --
Over +4.09%
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +2.10% / Under gap -8.02%
Over +2.10%
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +2.10% / Under gap -8.02%
Over +2.10%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap -6.07%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap -6.68%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -4.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -6.04% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.4% | U 76.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs TEX | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.77
Strongest Gap Over +5.33%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +5.33% / Under gap -11.32%
Over +5.33%
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap +2.76% / Under gap -8.71%
Over +2.76%
Model O 50.4% | U 49.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.0
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs BOS | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap Over +2.97%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +2.97% / Under gap --
Over +2.97%
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +1.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -5.81% / Under gap -0.07%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -5.81% / Under gap -0.07%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -153 / U +121
Over gap -5.04% / Under gap -0.68%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -2.61% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -4.57% / Under gap -3.05%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -9.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -9.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.3% | U 82.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.0
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs CLE | 6 books
Lean
Adj K 3.25
Strongest Gap Over +2.68%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +2.68% / Under gap --
Over +2.68%
DraftKings
2.5
O -151 / U +117
Over gap +0.54% / Under gap -6.78%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap +0.31% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -0.08% / Under gap -7.21%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -1.13% / Under gap -4.95%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -1.13% / Under gap -4.95%
No Play
Model O 24.0% | U 76.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.4
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs MIA | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Under +1.70%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +1.70%
Under +1.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +1.70%
Under +1.70%
DraftKings
5.5
O +117 / U -154
Over gap -7.78% / Under gap +1.07%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -7.15% / Under gap +0.16%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -0.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -3.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -12.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -14.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -560 / U --
Over gap -15.16% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs CHC | 7 books
No Play
Adj K 3.47
Strongest Gap No Play +1.39%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +1.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -0.42% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +114 / U -144
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -4.03%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -4.03%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -4.10% / Under gap -3.01%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -7.92% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.7% | U 84.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.9
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs STL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.14
Strongest Gap No Play +1.35%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap +1.35% / Under gap -8.13%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -1.07% / Under gap -4.99%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -147 / U +115
Over gap -2.60% / Under gap -3.42%
No Play
Model O 56.9% | U 43.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.9
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.62
Strongest Gap No Play -1.23%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -1.23% / Under gap -5.88%
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -3.91% / Under gap -2.10%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -3.43% / Under gap -2.50%
No Play
Model O 47.5% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.8
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs COL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.23
Strongest Gap No Play -1.36%
Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
2.5
O -161 / U +125
Over gap -1.36% / Under gap -4.77%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -1.79% / Under gap -4.19%
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap -3.31% / Under gap -3.81%
No Play
Model O 60.3% | U 39.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.8
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs HOU | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap No Play -1.75%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -5.36% / Under gap -1.75%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -2.03% / Under gap -4.05%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +118 / U -154
Over gap -2.45% / Under gap -4.05%
No Play
Model O 43.4% | U 56.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.