Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-05 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-05

54 matched props 11 unmatched

Older: 2026-09-04

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54

Grouped Pitchers 21

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 11

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-05 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-05/strikeout_edges_2026-09-05.json

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.83

Strongest Gap Under +28.18%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -34.96% / Under gap +28.18%

Under +28.18%

FanDuel

5.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -30.86% / Under gap +24.85%

Under +24.85%

DraftKings

5.5

O +109 / U -139

Over gap -27.25% / Under gap +21.24%

Under +21.24%

Model O 20.6% | U 79.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.4

Cade Cavalli

WSH vs LAD | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 3.36

Strongest Gap Under +26.71%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +111 / U -144

Over gap -33.12% / Under gap +26.71%

Under +26.71%

FanDuel

5.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -31.60% / Under gap +25.73%

Under +25.73%

Model O 14.3% | U 85.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.2

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs TEX | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.08

Strongest Gap Under +24.54%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -31.32% / Under gap +24.54%

Under +24.54%

DraftKings

5.5

O -111 / U -112

Over gap -28.37% / Under gap +22.93%

Under +22.93%

FanDuel

5.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -26.74% / Under gap +20.81%

Under +20.81%

Model O 24.2% | U 75.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.1

Seth Lugo

KC vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.95

Strongest Gap Over +24.40%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +124 / U -160

Over gap +24.40% / Under gap -30.58%

Over +24.40%

BetMGM

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +22.53% / Under gap -29.82%

Over +22.53%

DraftKings

3.5

O +109 / U -140

Over gap +21.19% / Under gap -27.37%

Over +21.19%

Model O 69.0% | U 31.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.8

Taj Bradley

MIN vs CWS | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.13

Strongest Gap Under +21.03%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -117 / U -107

Over gap -26.64% / Under gap +21.03%

Under +21.03%

FanDuel

6.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -26.21% / Under gap +20.11%

Under +20.11%

Model O 27.3% | U 72.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.0

Framber Valdez

DET vs CLE | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.14

Strongest Gap Over +16.49%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap +16.49% / Under gap -22.42%

Over +16.49%

DraftKings

3.5

O -135 / U +105

Over gap +13.99% / Under gap -20.22%

Over +13.99%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +11.44% / Under gap -19.06%

Over +11.44%

Model O 71.4% | U 28.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.7

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.08

Strongest Gap Under +13.39%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -21.01% / Under gap +13.39%

Under +13.39%

FanDuel

5.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -19.16% / Under gap +13.31%

Under +13.31%

DraftKings

5.5

O -180 / U +107

Over gap -24.77% / Under gap +12.17%

Under +12.17%

Model O 26.6% | U 73.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.3

Tyler Glasnow

LAD vs WSH | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 6.28

Strongest Gap Under +12.33%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O +103 / U -131

Over gap -18.30% / Under gap +12.33%

Under +12.33%

FanDuel

7.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -15.77% / Under gap +9.69%

Under +9.69%

Model O 31.0% | U 69.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.1

Sonny Gray

BOS vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.14

Strongest Gap Under +10.79%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -17.90% / Under gap +10.79%

Under +10.79%

DraftKings

5.5

O -127 / U -101

Over gap -15.52% / Under gap +9.32%

Under +9.32%

FanDuel

5.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -13.70% / Under gap +7.65%

Under +7.65%

Model O 40.4% | U 59.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.0

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ vs HOU | 2 books

Play

Adj K 4.32

Strongest Gap Under +4.38%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -111 / U -113

Over gap -10.04% / Under gap +4.38%

Under +4.38%

FanDuel

4.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -8.89% / Under gap +2.88%

Under +2.88%

Model O 42.6% | U 57.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6

Ryan Gusto

MIA vs CHC | 2 books

Play

Adj K 4.61

Strongest Gap Over +3.69%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap +3.69% / Under gap -9.77%

Over +3.69%

DraftKings

3.5

O -185 / U +124

Over gap -0.59% / Under gap -8.96%

No Play

Model O 64.3% | U 35.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.2

George Kirby

SEA vs ATH | 2 books

Play

Adj K 5.87

Strongest Gap Over +3.51%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +3.51% / Under gap -9.46%

Over +3.51%

DraftKings

5.5

O +102 / U -131

Over gap +1.63% / Under gap -7.84%

Over +1.63%

Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.4

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs TB | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.57

Strongest Gap Under +3.15%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -10.60% / Under gap +3.15%

Under +3.15%

DraftKings

5.5

O -119 / U -107

Over gap -7.49% / Under gap +1.46%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -4.61% / Under gap -1.40%

No Play

Model O 46.9% | U 53.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.3

Max Scherzer

TOR vs KC | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 3.70

Strongest Gap Under +2.14%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -9.25% / Under gap +2.14%

Under +2.14%

DraftKings

3.5

O -126 / U -103

Over gap -6.67% / Under gap +0.18%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -4.41% / Under gap -1.69%

No Play

Model O 49.1% | U 50.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.8

Andrew Abbott

CIN vs MIL | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.24

Strongest Gap Over +1.67%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap +1.67% / Under gap -7.59%

Over +1.67%

DraftKings

3.5

O -132 / U +103

Over gap +1.67% / Under gap -7.83%

Over +1.67%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -1.43% / Under gap -6.19%

No Play

Model O 58.6% | U 41.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.2

Carlos Rodón

NYY vs SD | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 5.54

Strongest Gap No Play +1.41%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap +1.41% / Under gap -7.28%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -185 / U +130

Over gap -3.50% / Under gap -4.89%

No Play

Model O 61.4% | U 38.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4

Martín Pérez

ATL vs PHI | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.42

Strongest Gap No Play +0.74%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -7.52% / Under gap +0.74%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -101 / U -126

Over gap -6.55% / Under gap +0.55%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -5.80% / Under gap -0.22%

No Play

Model O 43.7% | U 56.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.3

Jeffrey Springs

ATH vs SEA | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 4.40

Strongest Gap No Play -0.84%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -163 / U +129

Over gap -0.84% / Under gap -4.81%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -166 / U +130

Over gap -1.27% / Under gap -4.62%

No Play

Model O 61.1% | U 38.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.8

Javier Assad

CHC vs MIA | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 3.56

Strongest Gap No Play -0.97%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +111 / U -142

Over gap -0.97% / Under gap -5.10%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap -1.20% / Under gap -4.75%

No Play

Model O 46.4% | U 53.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.3

Chris Bassitt

BAL vs BOS | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.25

Strongest Gap No Play -1.26%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap -1.26% / Under gap -4.61%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +124 / U -158

Over gap -3.27% / Under gap -2.61%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -2.80% / Under gap -4.19%

No Play

Model O 58.7% | U 41.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.7

Zack Wheeler

PHI vs ATL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 7.02

Strongest Gap No Play -1.91%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -120 / U -106

Over gap -1.91% / Under gap -4.10%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -2.31% / Under gap -3.62%

No Play

BetMGM

6.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -2.92% / Under gap -3.86%

No Play

Model O 52.6% | U 47.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.