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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-27 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-27
30 matched props 30 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-28 Older: 2026-07-26

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 30
Grouped Pitchers 10
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 30
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-27 | Raw sportsbook rows: 30 | Grouped pitcher entries: 10 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-27/strikeout_edges_2026-07-27.json
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap Over +22.85%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap +22.85% / Under gap -29.97%
Over +22.85%
FanDuel
3.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +19.60% / Under gap -25.68%
Over +19.60%
DraftKings
3.5
O +104 / U -134
Over gap +17.31% / Under gap -23.59%
Over +17.31%
Model O 66.3% | U 33.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.3
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.61
Strongest Gap Under +17.43%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -118 / U -110
Over gap -23.94% / Under gap +17.43%
Under +17.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -20.79% / Under gap +14.86%
Under +14.86%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -18.59% / Under gap +11.48%
Under +11.48%
Model O 30.2% | U 69.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.2
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
SF vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Under +10.67%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -18.29% / Under gap +10.67%
Under +10.67%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -15.92% / Under gap +9.75%
Under +9.75%
DraftKings
4.5
O -135 / U +105
Over gap -15.74% / Under gap +9.51%
Under +9.51%
Model O 41.7% | U 58.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.7
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Under +6.35%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -13.33% / Under gap +6.35%
Under +6.35%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -11.76% / Under gap +5.71%
Under +5.71%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -10.34% / Under gap +4.28%
Under +4.28%
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.5
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs MIA | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.85
Strongest Gap Under +4.24%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -195 / U +121
Over gap -15.59% / Under gap +4.24%
Under +4.24%
FanDuel
6.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -10.12% / Under gap +4.04%
Under +4.04%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -7.82% / Under gap +0.71%
No Play
Model O 50.5% | U 49.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.5
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs SEA | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Under +4.21%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -10.31% / Under gap +4.21%
Under +4.21%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -10.75% / Under gap +3.77%
Under +3.77%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -119
Over gap -9.18% / Under gap +2.92%
Under +2.92%
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.9
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs TEX | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.31
Strongest Gap Under +1.64%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -104 / U -124
Over gap -7.98% / Under gap +1.64%
Under +1.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -6.02% / Under gap +0.10%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -7.00% / Under gap -0.45%
No Play
Model O 43.0% | U 57.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs PIT | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.45
Strongest Gap No Play -0.51%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -102 / U -126
Over gap -5.74% / Under gap -0.51%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -5.24% / Under gap -0.90%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -2.86% / Under gap -4.76%
No Play
Model O 44.8% | U 55.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.2
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs DET | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.71
Strongest Gap No Play -0.63%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -5.39%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -118 / U -110
Over gap -5.26% / Under gap -1.25%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap -2.35% / Under gap -3.62%
No Play
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.4
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.35
Strongest Gap No Play -2.37%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -2.37% / Under gap -4.62%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -2.61% / Under gap -3.45%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -182 / U +131
Over gap -4.19% / Under gap -3.64%
No Play
Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.