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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-07 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-07
74 matched props 59 unmatched
Older: 2026-09-06

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 74
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 59
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-07 | Raw sportsbook rows: 74 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-07/strikeout_edges_2026-09-07.json
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs PHI | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap Over +20.35%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +20.35% / Under gap --
Over +20.35%
FanDuel
5.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +19.25% / Under gap --
Over +19.25%
DraftKings
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +18.14% / Under gap -24.06%
Over +18.14%
FanDuel
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +18.14% / Under gap -24.06%
Over +18.14%
FanDuel
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +18.14% / Under gap -24.06%
Over +18.14%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +15.94% / Under gap -22.72%
Over +15.94%
FanDuel
2.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap +7.83% / Under gap --
Over +7.83%
Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0
Nick Pivetta headshot

Nick Pivetta
SD vs WSH | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.56
Strongest Gap Over +17.29%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +17.29% / Under gap --
Over +17.29%
FanDuel
6.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +16.50% / Under gap --
Over +16.50%
DraftKings
4.5
O +116 / U -147
Over gap +15.38% / Under gap -21.19%
Over +15.38%
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +14.51% / Under gap -20.36%
Over +14.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +14.51% / Under gap -20.36%
Over +14.51%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap +12.90% / Under gap -20.86%
Over +12.90%
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap +6.05% / Under gap --
Over +6.05%
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap +1.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.7% | U 53.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.0
Eury Pérez headshot

Eury Pérez
MIA vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.85
Strongest Gap Under +15.23%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -136 / U +105
Over gap -21.64% / Under gap +15.23%
Under +15.23%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -20.53% / Under gap +14.51%
Under +14.51%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -21.46% / Under gap +14.01%
Under +14.01%
Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.3
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs BAL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.23
Strongest Gap Under +11.47%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -17.55% / Under gap +11.47%
Under +11.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -16.88% / Under gap +11.03%
Under +11.03%
DraftKings
5.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -16.88% / Under gap +10.81%
Under +10.81%
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -17.87% / Under gap +10.58%
Under +10.58%
FanDuel
8.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -3.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -7.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -11.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap -13.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -17.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -20.22% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.8% | U 58.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.6
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.37
Strongest Gap Under +8.36%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -14.43% / Under gap +8.36%
Under +8.36%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -15.53% / Under gap +7.91%
Under +7.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -12.16% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
Model O 44.2% | U 55.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.5
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.74
Strongest Gap Under +6.57%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +101 / U -131
Over gap -13.03% / Under gap +6.57%
Under +6.57%
BetMGM
7.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -13.28% / Under gap +5.83%
Under +5.83%
FanDuel
7.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -9.58% / Under gap +3.60%
Under +3.60%
Model O 36.7% | U 63.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.9
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs STL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.94
Strongest Gap Over +6.24%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +118 / U -153
Over gap +6.24% / Under gap -12.58%
Over +6.24%
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap +5.81% / Under gap -11.79%
Over +5.81%
Model O 52.1% | U 47.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.8
Jake Irvin headshot

Jake Irvin
WSH vs SD | 8 books
Play
Adj K 3.97
Strongest Gap Under +4.31%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +116 / U -145
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap +4.31%
Under +4.31%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -10.22% / Under gap +4.14%
Under +4.14%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -10.22% / Under gap +4.14%
Under +4.14%
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -11.11% / Under gap +3.49%
Under +3.49%
FanDuel
6.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -3.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -7.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -14.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -16.17% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.7
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs SF | 2 books
Play
Adj K 3.17
Strongest Gap Under +4.04%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +105 / U -134
Over gap -10.08% / Under gap +4.04%
Under +4.04%
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -6.75% / Under gap +0.67%
No Play
Model O 38.7% | U 61.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.3
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs TOR | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Over +3.80%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +3.80% / Under gap -9.65%
Over +3.80%
DraftKings
4.5
O +110 / U -141
Over gap +3.35% / Under gap -9.48%
Over +3.35%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +0.97% / Under gap -8.42%
No Play
Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.6
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs AZ | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.19
Strongest Gap Over +3.63%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +3.63% / Under gap --
Over +3.63%
FanDuel
5.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +2.07% / Under gap --
Over +2.07%
FanDuel
4.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap -1.33% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -164 / U +127
Over gap -4.37% / Under gap -1.80%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -4.08% / Under gap -2.00%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -4.08% / Under gap -2.00%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -3.14% / Under gap -3.98%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -7.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.4% | U 84.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.8
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs CLE | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.83
Strongest Gap Under +3.58%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -9.66% / Under gap +3.58%
Under +3.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -9.03% / Under gap +3.16%
Under +3.16%
DraftKings
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -8.71% / Under gap +2.73%
Under +2.73%
FanDuel
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +0.55% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -8.21% / Under gap +0.25%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -1.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap -5.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -11.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -13.70% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs MIL | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Over +1.96%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +1.96% / Under gap --
Over +1.96%
FanDuel
5.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap +0.50% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -5.36%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -2.09% / Under gap -4.05%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap -3.55% / Under gap -2.46%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -3.31% / Under gap -3.47%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -7.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -7.98% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.8% | U 79.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.