Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-25 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-25

63 matched props 17 unmatched

Newer: 2026-07-26 Older: 2026-07-24

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 63

Grouped Pitchers 21

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 17

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-25 | Raw sportsbook rows: 63 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-25/strikeout_edges_2026-07-25.json

Sean Burke

CWS vs HOU | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.12

Strongest Gap Under +19.61%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -26.39% / Under gap +19.61%

Under +19.61%

DraftKings

5.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -24.19% / Under gap +18.27%

Under +18.27%

FanDuel

5.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -23.25% / Under gap +17.19%

Under +17.19%

Model O 24.8% | U 75.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.3

Eury Pérez

MIA vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.77

Strongest Gap Under +18.07%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -23.92% / Under gap +18.07%

Under +18.07%

DraftKings

6.5

O +134 / U -156

Over gap -20.24% / Under gap +16.56%

Under +16.56%

BetMGM

5.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -23.57% / Under gap +16.46%

Under +16.46%

Model O 34.8% | U 65.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.7

Ryan Weathers

NYY vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.77

Strongest Gap Under +16.56%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +124 / U -156

Over gap -22.14% / Under gap +16.56%

Under +16.56%

FanDuel

6.5

O +128 / U -164

Over gap -21.36% / Under gap +15.38%

Under +15.38%

BetMGM

6.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap -21.94% / Under gap +15.24%

Under +15.24%

Model O 22.5% | U 77.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.1

Paul Skenes

PIT vs CHC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.97

Strongest Gap Under +15.52%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -158 / U +119

Over gap -22.42% / Under gap +15.52%

Under +15.52%

FanDuel

6.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -20.53% / Under gap +14.45%

Under +14.45%

BetMGM

6.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -18.63% / Under gap +11.18%

Under +11.18%

Model O 38.8% | U 61.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.4

Dylan Cease

TOR vs BOS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.54

Strongest Gap Under +14.81%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -20.74% / Under gap +14.81%

Under +14.81%

DraftKings

7.5

O -121 / U -105

Over gap -20.54% / Under gap +14.57%

Under +14.57%

BetMGM

7.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -15.79% / Under gap +8.34%

Under +8.34%

Model O 34.2% | U 65.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.4

Bryan Woo

SEA vs TEX | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.17

Strongest Gap Under +14.06%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -164 / U +122

Over gap -21.23% / Under gap +14.06%

Under +14.06%

FanDuel

5.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -17.79% / Under gap +11.94%

Under +11.94%

BetMGM

5.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -17.44% / Under gap +10.33%

Under +10.33%

Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.0

Casey Mize

DET vs KC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.76

Strongest Gap Under +13.93%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -120 / U -106

Over gap -19.94% / Under gap +13.93%

Under +13.93%

BetMGM

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -16.61% / Under gap +9.83%

Under +9.83%

FanDuel

5.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -15.39% / Under gap +9.25%

Under +9.25%

Model O 34.6% | U 65.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.1

Brandon Young

BAL vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.70

Strongest Gap Under +12.28%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -102 / U -127

Over gap -18.73% / Under gap +12.28%

Under +12.28%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -14.10% / Under gap +8.23%

Under +8.23%

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +8.23%

Under +8.23%

Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.6

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.11

Strongest Gap Under +10.02%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -16.16% / Under gap +10.02%

Under +10.02%

BetMGM

5.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -14.57% / Under gap +7.64%

Under +7.64%

FanDuel

5.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -13.51% / Under gap +7.41%

Under +7.41%

Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.64

Strongest Gap Under +9.97%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -101 / U -126

Over gap -15.97% / Under gap +9.97%

Under +9.97%

FanDuel

6.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -14.74% / Under gap +8.82%

Under +8.82%

BetMGM

5.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -12.92% / Under gap +5.63%

Under +5.63%

Model O 34.3% | U 65.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.0

Andre Pallante

STL vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.62

Strongest Gap Under +9.95%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -15.93% / Under gap +9.95%

Under +9.95%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -15.50% / Under gap +9.63%

Under +9.63%

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -17.25% / Under gap +9.63%

Under +9.63%

Model O 30.4% | U 69.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.1

Ryan Feltner

COL vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.72

Strongest Gap Under +7.88%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -15.50% / Under gap +7.88%

Under +7.88%

FanDuel

4.5

O +124 / U -160

Over gap -12.52% / Under gap +6.34%

Under +6.34%

DraftKings

4.5

O +130 / U -166

Over gap -11.36% / Under gap +5.47%

Under +5.47%

Model O 32.1% | U 67.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.1

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs TB | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.81

Strongest Gap Over +7.55%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +132 / U -170

Over gap +7.55% / Under gap -13.61%

Over +7.55%

DraftKings

4.5

O +129 / U -164

Over gap +6.98% / Under gap -12.77%

Over +6.98%

BetMGM

4.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +4.14% / Under gap -11.43%

Over +4.14%

Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.9

Nathan Eovaldi

TEX vs SEA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.72

Strongest Gap Under +7.17%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +105 / U -135

Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +7.17%

Under +7.17%

FanDuel

6.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -13.16% / Under gap +6.99%

Under +6.99%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -11.13% / Under gap +3.84%

Under +3.84%

Model O 35.4% | U 64.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.4

Nick Martinez

TB vs CLE | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.90

Strongest Gap Over +6.23%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +6.23% / Under gap -13.52%

Over +6.23%

FanDuel

3.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap +5.57% / Under gap -11.42%

Over +5.57%

DraftKings

3.5

O +108 / U -139

Over gap +4.66% / Under gap -10.90%

Over +4.66%

Model O 52.7% | U 47.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.4

Michael Wacha

KC vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.65

Strongest Gap Under +6.15%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -12.14% / Under gap +6.15%

Under +6.15%

DraftKings

5.5

O +127 / U -162

Over gap -11.14% / Under gap +5.26%

Under +5.26%

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -11.93% / Under gap +4.31%

Under +4.31%

Model O 32.9% | U 67.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0

Hunter Greene

CIN vs STL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 6.16

Strongest Gap Under +3.83%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -105 / U -121

Over gap -9.80% / Under gap +3.83%

Under +3.83%

FanDuel

6.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -8.08% / Under gap +2.06%

Under +2.06%

BetMGM

6.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -6.20% / Under gap -1.42%

No Play

Model O 41.4% | U 58.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 77.0

Sonny Gray

BOS vs TOR | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.13

Strongest Gap Over +2.09%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +2.09% / Under gap -9.07%

Over +2.09%

FanDuel

4.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -0.94% / Under gap -5.08%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -130 / U +101

Over gap -0.94% / Under gap -5.33%

No Play

Model O 55.6% | U 44.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.1

Robbie Ray

SF vs LAA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.86

Strongest Gap No Play +1.39%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -144 / U +110

Over gap -8.03% / Under gap +1.39%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -5.53% / Under gap -0.49%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -4.57% / Under gap -2.21%

No Play

Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.2

Bryce Elder

ATL vs BAL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap No Play +0.61%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -145 / U +112

Over gap -6.96% / Under gap +0.61%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -0.76%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -6.11% / Under gap -1.00%

No Play

Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.3

Hunter Brown

HOU vs CWS | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.07

Strongest Gap No Play -1.51%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -140 / U +110

Over gap -4.44% / Under gap -1.51%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -137 / U +107

Over gap -3.92% / Under gap -2.20%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -2.63% / Under gap -5.11%

No Play

Model O 53.9% | U 46.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.