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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-28 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-28
47 matched props 36 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-29 Older: 2026-07-27

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 47
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 36
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-28 | Raw sportsbook rows: 47 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-28/strikeout_edges_2026-07-28.json
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.46
Strongest Gap Under +19.51%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -126 / U -102
Over gap -25.76% / Under gap +19.51%
Under +19.51%
FanDuel
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -24.56% / Under gap +18.55%
Under +18.55%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -24.56% / Under gap +17.63%
Under +17.63%
Model O 30.0% | U 70.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.7
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs KC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.26
Strongest Gap Under +16.61%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -22.64% / Under gap +16.61%
Under +16.61%
FanDuel
6.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -20.95% / Under gap +14.81%
Under +14.81%
BetMGM
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -19.73% / Under gap +12.62%
Under +12.62%
Model O 29.0% | U 71.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.8
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.65
Strongest Gap Under +13.55%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -20.33% / Under gap +13.55%
Under +13.55%
DraftKings
4.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -15.84% / Under gap +9.93%
Under +9.93%
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -14.98% / Under gap +9.11%
Under +9.11%
Model O 30.9% | U 69.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.9
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Under +11.99%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U +109
Over gap -18.17% / Under gap +11.99%
Under +11.99%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -16.74% / Under gap +10.82%
Under +10.82%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -17.29% / Under gap +9.84%
Under +9.84%
Model O 40.2% | U 59.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.5
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.36
Strongest Gap Under +9.53%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +111 / U -141
Over gap -15.43% / Under gap +9.53%
Under +9.53%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -15.66% / Under gap +8.04%
Under +8.04%
FanDuel
7.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -12.68% / Under gap +6.80%
Under +6.80%
Model O 32.0% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.8
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Over +8.90%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +130 / U -167
Over gap +8.90% / Under gap -14.93%
Over +8.90%
FanDuel
4.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +6.93% / Under gap -13.01%
Over +6.93%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +5.87% / Under gap -13.16%
Over +5.87%
Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.5
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
BAL vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.65
Strongest Gap Under +6.88%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -12.87% / Under gap +6.88%
Under +6.88%
DraftKings
4.5
O -149 / U +114
Over gap -11.77% / Under gap +5.20%
Under +5.20%
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap +4.31%
Under +4.31%
Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.2
Shane Bieber headshot

Shane Bieber
TOR vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.71
Strongest Gap Over +5.19%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +5.19% / Under gap -11.17%
Over +5.19%
FanDuel
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +4.00% / Under gap -9.99%
Over +4.00%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +3.60% / Under gap -10.59%
Over +3.60%
Model O 49.0% | U 50.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.3
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs STL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Over +4.09%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +4.09% / Under gap -10.19%
Over +4.09%
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +4.09% / Under gap -11.07%
Over +4.09%
DraftKings
3.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap +3.88% / Under gap -9.96%
Over +3.88%
Model O 57.6% | U 42.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.9
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs PIT | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.42
Strongest Gap Over +2.10%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +2.10% / Under gap -8.18%
Over +2.10%
BetMGM
4.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap +0.78% / Under gap -7.90%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -176 / U +126
Over gap -2.32% / Under gap -5.70%
No Play
Model O 61.5% | U 38.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.1
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.22
Strongest Gap No Play +0.37%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +111 / U -138
Over gap -5.74% / Under gap +0.37%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -4.65% / Under gap -1.33%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -5.97% / Under gap -1.65%
No Play
Model O 41.6% | U 58.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.0
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs COL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.70
Strongest Gap No Play +0.19%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap +0.19% / Under gap -6.36%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +106 / U -138
Over gap +0.19% / Under gap -6.71%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -4.76% / Under gap -2.22%
No Play
Model O 48.7% | U 51.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.4
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs MIA | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.32
Strongest Gap No Play +0.02%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap +0.02% / Under gap -7.13%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -1.10% / Under gap -4.98%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +120 / U -153
Over gap -2.30% / Under gap -3.62%
No Play
Model O 58.4% | U 41.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.8
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs TB | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 3.07
Strongest Gap No Play -1.84%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -4.04% / Under gap -1.84%
No Play
DraftKings
2.5
O -151 / U +117
Over gap -2.96% / Under gap -3.28%
No Play
Model O 57.2% | U 42.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.9
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
SEA vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.94
Strongest Gap No Play -1.95%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -131 / U +103
Over gap -4.02% / Under gap -1.95%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -3.45% / Under gap -2.69%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -2.87% / Under gap -3.91%
No Play
Model O 52.7% | U 47.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.2
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs SD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.90
Strongest Gap No Play -2.21%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -2.21% / Under gap -3.72%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -123 / U -104
Over gap -2.42% / Under gap -3.72%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -2.82% / Under gap -3.96%
No Play
Model O 52.7% | U 47.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.