Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 77.6 | Lineup K 7.62
|
7.58 | 7.76 | +0.18 | 91.1% | 83.2% | 72.9% | 61.2% | 49.1% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TOR
Score 73.2 | Lineup K 7.24
|
5.96 | 6.53 | +0.57 | 84.5% | 73.0% | 59.8% | 46.3% | 34.1% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PHI
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 6.26
|
6.58 | 6.52 | -0.06 | 84.4% | 72.9% | 59.6% | 46.2% | 34.0% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs BAL
Score 49.9 | Lineup K 5.64
|
6.63 | 6.28 | -0.35 | 82.6% | 70.4% | 56.6% | 43.0% | 31.0% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs ATH
Score 69.5 | Lineup K 6.10
|
6.17 | 6.24 | +0.07 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Charlie Morton
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIN
Score 56.0 | Lineup K 5.86
|
5.77 | 5.83 | +0.06 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.5% | 36.9% | 25.5% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs TEX
Score 49.8 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.86 | 5.78 | -0.08 | 78.3% | 64.5% | 49.8% | 36.2% | 24.9% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYM
Score 60.6 | Lineup K 5.86
|
5.49 | 5.67 | +0.18 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.2% | 34.7% | 23.6% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs ATL
Score 43.9 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.49 | 5.41 | -0.08 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Lucas Giolito
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIA
Score 47.8 | Lineup K 5.96
|
5.06 | 5.37 | +0.31 | 74.0% | 59.0% | 43.9% | 30.6% | 20.1% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 68.3 | Lineup K 5.86
|
4.93 | 5.33 | +0.40 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.3% | 30.0% | 19.6% |
Luis Gil
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs STL
Score 53.3 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.12 | 5.32 | +0.20 | 73.5% | 58.3% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs SEA
Score 55.7 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.99 | 5.07 | +0.08 | 70.5% | 54.6% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.8% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs BOS
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 5.77
|
4.52 | 4.97 | +0.45 | 69.2% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.2% | 15.8% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 49.3 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.54 | 4.79 | +0.25 | 66.8% | 50.3% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIL
Score 41.1 | Lineup K 5.07
|
4.65 | 4.76 | +0.11 | 66.4% | 49.8% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Joe Boyle
Probable | projected
|
TB vs SF
Score 41.2 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.51 | 4.63 | +0.12 | 64.5% | 47.7% | 32.6% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs KC
Score 40.3 | Lineup K 4.82
|
4.41 | 4.52 | +0.11 | 62.9% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs TB
Score 26.7 | Lineup K 4.11
|
4.71 | 4.42 | -0.29 | 61.4% | 44.2% | 29.4% | 18.2% | 10.5% |
Clayton Kershaw
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SD
Score 44.5 | Lineup K 4.77
|
3.96 | 4.22 | +0.26 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.4% | 15.8% | 8.8% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYY
Score 33.1 | Lineup K 4.92
|
3.90 | 4.20 | +0.30 | 57.8% | 40.5% | 26.1% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 19.7 | Lineup K 3.53
|
3.53 | 3.44 | -0.09 | 44.1% | 27.3% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
Hurston Waldrep
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CLE
Score 13.8 | Lineup K 3.31
|
3.55 | 3.37 | -0.18 | 42.7% | 26.0% | 14.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.