Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYM
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 5.91
|
6.50 | 6.36 | -0.14 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CLE
Score 68.9 | Lineup K 5.48
|
5.98 | 5.89 | -0.09 | 79.4% | 65.9% | 51.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs ATL
Score 51.2 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.54 | 5.56 | +0.02 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs STL
Score 61.6 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.38 | 5.46 | +0.08 | 75.1% | 60.3% | 45.2% | 31.8% | 21.1% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs TB
Score 60.5 | Lineup K 5.27
|
5.41 | 5.41 | +0.00 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SD
Score 51.5 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.30 | 5.40 | +0.10 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs NYY
Score 47.3 | Lineup K 5.52
|
4.97 | 5.15 | +0.18 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs SF
Score 43.8 | Lineup K 4.76
|
5.12 | 4.97 | -0.15 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs TOR
Score 31.9 | Lineup K 4.48
|
5.24 | 4.90 | -0.34 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 45.7 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.65 | 4.86 | +0.21 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs ATH
Score 45.6 | Lineup K 4.94
|
4.63 | 4.72 | +0.09 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs PIT
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 4.68
|
4.69 | 4.67 | -0.02 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 26.8 | Lineup K 4.34
|
4.65 | 4.46 | -0.19 | 62.1% | 44.9% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CIN
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 5.34
|
4.00 | 4.45 | +0.45 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs TEX
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 4.85
|
4.20 | 4.37 | +0.17 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 31.2 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.98 | 4.10 | +0.12 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs KC
Score 40.4 | Lineup K 4.33
|
4.01 | 4.09 | +0.08 | 56.1% | 38.6% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 31.8 | Lineup K 3.90
|
3.89 | 3.84 | -0.05 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIA
Score 31.1 | Lineup K 3.84
|
3.38 | 3.49 | +0.11 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAA
Score 33.4 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.03 | 3.35 | +0.32 | 42.3% | 25.7% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PHI
Score 16.3 | Lineup K 3.59
|
3.10 | 3.18 | +0.08 | 38.9% | 22.8% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.