Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CWS
Score 67.5 | Lineup K 5.77
|
6.31 | 6.21 | -0.10 | 82.2% | 69.7% | 55.8% | 42.1% | 30.1% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SEA
Score 54.2 | Lineup K 6.59
|
4.95 | 5.54 | +0.59 | 76.0% | 61.4% | 46.4% | 32.9% | 22.0% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYM
Score 57.8 | Lineup K 5.77
|
5.08 | 5.35 | +0.27 | 73.9% | 58.8% | 43.6% | 30.3% | 19.8% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs DET
Score 67.5 | Lineup K 5.82
|
4.71 | 5.17 | +0.46 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CHC
Score 44.7 | Lineup K 5.22
|
5.20 | 5.13 | -0.07 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.69
|
5.25 | 5.00 | -0.25 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 44.9 | Lineup K 4.81
|
5.05 | 4.95 | -0.10 | 69.0% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SF
Score 54.7 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.79 | 4.89 | +0.10 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs NYY
Score 60.9 | Lineup K 6.68
|
4.30 | 4.86 | +0.56 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 46.2 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.60 | 4.71 | +0.11 | 65.8% | 49.0% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 13.1% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs WSH
Score 47.5 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.36 | 4.51 | +0.15 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs TB
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 4.52
|
4.36 | 4.40 | +0.04 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 53.5 | Lineup K 5.49
|
3.90 | 4.38 | +0.48 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs ATL
Score 41.6 | Lineup K 5.26
|
3.90 | 4.34 | +0.44 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CLE
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.22 | 4.25 | +0.03 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs MIA
Score 57.2 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.90 | 4.12 | +0.22 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIL
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 4.41
|
3.80 | 3.97 | +0.17 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PIT
Score 25.2 | Lineup K 4.43
|
3.48 | 3.74 | +0.26 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 22.2 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.29 | 3.41 | +0.12 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.