Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 6.07
|
6.25 | 6.26 | +0.01 | 82.6% | 70.3% | 56.4% | 42.8% | 30.7% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs SF
Score 78.4 | Lineup K 6.26
|
5.72 | 6.04 | +0.32 | 80.8% | 67.8% | 53.5% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs NYM
Score 64.6 | Lineup K 5.97
|
5.93 | 6.01 | +0.08 | 80.5% | 67.4% | 53.1% | 39.4% | 27.6% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs COL
Score 81.8 | Lineup K 6.64
|
5.39 | 5.98 | +0.59 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs AZ
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.30
|
6.13 | 5.88 | -0.25 | 79.3% | 65.8% | 51.3% | 37.6% | 26.0% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PIT
Score 61.3 | Lineup K 5.90
|
5.45 | 5.66 | +0.21 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TOR
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 5.01
|
5.93 | 5.58 | -0.35 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs SD
Score 51.2 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.19 | 5.26 | +0.07 | 72.9% | 57.5% | 42.2% | 29.0% | 18.8% |
Ronel Blanco
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs CWS
Score 53.1 | Lineup K 5.00
|
5.23 | 5.16 | -0.07 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BOS
Score 63.1 | Lineup K 5.75
|
4.74 | 5.15 | +0.41 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs TB
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.73 | 4.91 | +0.18 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 46.1 | Lineup K 4.74
|
4.99 | 4.89 | -0.10 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PHI
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 5.41
|
4.47 | 4.79 | +0.32 | 66.9% | 50.3% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs STL
Score 44.1 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.28 | 4.38 | +0.10 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs ATL
Score 23.7 | Lineup K 4.42
|
4.30 | 4.25 | -0.05 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs HOU
Score 30.8 | Lineup K 4.43
|
3.69 | 3.89 | +0.20 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs WSH
Score 24.2 | Lineup K 3.86
|
4.01 | 3.88 | -0.13 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CIN
Score 21.8 | Lineup K 3.94
|
3.11 | 3.32 | +0.21 | 41.7% | 25.2% | 13.8% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs LAD
Score 19.0 | Lineup K 3.82
|
2.87 | 3.12 | +0.25 | 37.7% | 21.8% | 11.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.