Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
HOU 6, PHI 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
HOU 6, PHI 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
6 – 5final score
11total runs
39% → 0%PHI win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Wesneski, Hayden vs Painter, Andrew · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
HOU 61.5%PHI 38.5%
4.82 – 3.52mean score
8.34mean total
52%NRFI
10.5%extra innings
5.26 / 5.3starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
HOU (gold) vs PHI (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
HOU per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peña, Jeremy | 4.839 | 1.301 | 0.198 | 2.208 | 0.285 | 1.252 | 0.526 |
| Alvarez, Yordan | 4.725 | 1.308 | 0.283 | 2.544 | 0.621 | 1.022 | 0.74 |
| Paredes, Isaac | 4.628 | 1.151 | 0.152 | 1.845 | 0.424 | 0.801 | 0.575 |
| Altuve, Jose | 4.523 | 1.108 | 0.151 | 1.791 | 0.327 | 1.094 | 0.557 |
| Varsho, Daulton | 4.411 | 1.022 | 0.116 | 1.576 | 0.335 | 1.017 | 0.493 |
| Diaz, Yainer | 4.302 | 1.136 | 0.168 | 1.883 | 0.22 | 0.892 | 0.578 |
| Walker, Christian | 4.193 | 0.962 | 0.176 | 1.716 | 0.308 | 1.124 | 0.514 |
| Trammell, Taylor | 4.083 | 0.847 | 0.136 | 1.433 | 0.316 | 1.337 | 0.42 |
| Smith, Cam | 3.966 | 0.852 | 0.137 | 1.465 | 0.265 | 1.152 | 0.42 |
Projected batting lines
PHI per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schwarber, Kyle | 4.557 | 0.858 | 0.222 | 1.765 | 0.615 | 1.663 | 0.505 |
| Turner, Trea | 4.442 | 0.912 | 0.092 | 1.387 | 0.293 | 1.118 | 0.351 |
| Harper, Bryce | 4.331 | 0.929 | 0.138 | 1.6 | 0.624 | 1.11 | 0.464 |
| Arraez, Luis | 4.238 | 1.174 | 0.044 | 1.532 | 0.238 | 0.37 | 0.418 |
| Bohm, Alec | 4.143 | 0.896 | 0.09 | 1.341 | 0.3 | 0.785 | 0.407 |
| Stott, Bryson | 4.031 | 0.899 | 0.07 | 1.311 | 0.381 | 0.851 | 0.369 |
| Marsh, Brandon | 3.924 | 0.867 | 0.094 | 1.338 | 0.256 | 1.136 | 0.4 |
| Realmuto, J.T. | 3.804 | 0.72 | 0.078 | 1.103 | 0.322 | 1.004 | 0.332 |
| Crawford, Justin | 3.676 | 0.795 | 0.032 | 1.038 | 0.255 | 0.862 | 0.275 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Peña, Jeremy vs Painter, Andrew: HR +1 run (1-0)
Alvarez, Yordan vs Painter, Andrew: BB
Paredes, Isaac vs Painter, Andrew: OUT GB
Altuve, Jose vs Painter, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Turner, Trea vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Harper, Bryce vs Wesneski, Hayden: 2B
Arraez, Luis vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB +1 run (1-1)
Bohm, Alec vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Stott, Bryson vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Marsh, Brandon vs Wesneski, Hayden: 2B +3 runs (1-4)
Realmuto, J.T. vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Crawford, Justin vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Varsho, Daulton vs Painter, Andrew: K
Diaz, Yainer vs Painter, Andrew: K
Walker, Christian vs Painter, Andrew: 1B
Trammell, Taylor vs Painter, Andrew: K
— Bottom 2 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Turner, Trea vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Harper, Bryce vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Arraez, Luis vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Smith, Cam vs Painter, Andrew: OUT GB
Peña, Jeremy vs Painter, Andrew: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Painter, Andrew: BB
Paredes, Isaac vs Painter, Andrew: 1B
Altuve, Jose vs Painter, Andrew: K
— Bottom 3 —
Bohm, Alec vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Stott, Bryson vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Realmuto, J.T. vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Varsho, Daulton vs Painter, Andrew: OUT AIR
Diaz, Yainer vs Painter, Andrew: 1B
Walker, Christian vs Painter, Andrew: K
Trammell, Taylor vs Painter, Andrew: K
— Bottom 4 —
Crawford, Justin vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Turner, Trea vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Smith, Cam vs Painter, Andrew: BB
Peña, Jeremy vs Painter, Andrew: BB
Alvarez, Yordan vs Painter, Andrew: K
Paredes, Isaac vs Painter, Andrew: OUT GB
Altuve, Jose vs Painter, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Harper, Bryce vs Wesneski, Hayden: 2B
Arraez, Luis vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Bohm, Alec vs Wesneski, Hayden: 2B +1 run (1-5)
Stott, Bryson vs Hader, Josh: K
Marsh, Brandon vs Hader, Josh: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Varsho, Daulton vs Painter, Andrew: 2B
Diaz, Yainer vs Painter, Andrew: OUT AIR
Walker, Christian vs Duran, Jhoan: OUT AIR
Trammell, Taylor vs Duran, Jhoan: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Realmuto, J.T. vs Hader, Josh: K
Crawford, Justin vs Hader, Josh: OUT AIR
Schwarber, Kyle vs Okert, Steven: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Smith, Cam vs Duran, Jhoan: OUT AIR
Peña, Jeremy vs Duran, Jhoan: 2B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT AIR
Paredes, Isaac vs Bowlan, Jonathan: K
— Bottom 7 —
Turner, Trea vs Okert, Steven: OUT AIR
Harper, Bryce vs Okert, Steven: K
Arraez, Luis vs Okert, Steven: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Altuve, Jose vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT AIR
Varsho, Daulton vs Bowlan, Jonathan: OUT GB
Diaz, Yainer vs Shugart, Chase: 1B
Walker, Christian vs Shugart, Chase: K
— Bottom 8 —
Bohm, Alec vs Okert, Steven: K
Stott, Bryson vs Gordon, Colton: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Gordon, Colton: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Trammell, Taylor vs Shugart, Chase: HR +1 run (2-5)
Smith, Cam vs Shugart, Chase: K
Peña, Jeremy vs Pop, Zach: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Pop, Zach: 2B
Paredes, Isaac vs Pop, Zach: BB
Altuve, Jose vs Pop, Zach: 1B +1 run (3-5)
Varsho, Daulton vs Pop, Zach: K