Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
CHC 3, MIL 4. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CHC 3, MIL 4
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
3 – 4final score
7total runs
71% → 100%MIL win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Peterson, David vs Misiorowski, Jacob · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CHC 28.7%MIL 71.3%
3.25 – 5.27mean score
8.51mean total
54%NRFI
8.8%extra innings
4.77 / 8.14starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CHC (gold) vs MIL (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CHC per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crow-Armstrong, Pete | 4.575 | 0.895 | 0.192 | 1.751 | 0.419 | 1.81 | 0.456 |
| Suzuki, Seiya | 4.469 | 0.854 | 0.13 | 1.46 | 0.464 | 1.672 | 0.388 |
| Bregman, Alex | 4.366 | 0.882 | 0.125 | 1.474 | 0.385 | 1.174 | 0.408 |
| Busch, Michael | 4.269 | 0.728 | 0.089 | 1.145 | 0.438 | 1.518 | 0.331 |
| Hoerner, Nico | 4.166 | 0.922 | 0.047 | 1.236 | 0.272 | 0.768 | 0.291 |
| Happ, Ian | 4.051 | 0.65 | 0.116 | 1.155 | 0.41 | 1.704 | 0.354 |
| Shaw, Matt | 3.938 | 0.752 | 0.081 | 1.182 | 0.341 | 1.181 | 0.327 |
| Taylor, Tyrone | 3.816 | 0.805 | 0.112 | 1.353 | 0.222 | 1.12 | 0.391 |
| Amaya, Miguel | 3.692 | 0.688 | 0.074 | 1.056 | 0.297 | 1.348 | 0.301 |
Projected batting lines
MIL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chourio, Jackson | 4.748 | 1.365 | 0.198 | 2.304 | 0.391 | 1.18 | 0.692 |
| Turang, Brice | 4.631 | 1.169 | 0.13 | 1.845 | 0.565 | 1.246 | 0.572 |
| Vaughn, Andrew | 4.522 | 1.355 | 0.098 | 1.934 | 0.465 | 0.857 | 0.636 |
| Contreras, William | 4.42 | 1.214 | 0.137 | 1.875 | 0.399 | 0.754 | 0.684 |
| Sánchez, Gary | 4.308 | 0.955 | 0.186 | 1.736 | 0.587 | 0.994 | 0.672 |
| Lara, Luis | 4.205 | 1.071 | 0.069 | 1.475 | 0.386 | 1.002 | 0.481 |
| Ortiz, Joey | 4.097 | 1.036 | 0.097 | 1.545 | 0.389 | 0.885 | 0.514 |
| Mitchell, Garrett | 3.983 | 0.978 | 0.079 | 1.442 | 0.413 | 1.308 | 0.503 |
| Pratt, Cooper | 3.869 | 1.001 | 0.076 | 1.415 | 0.384 | 0.834 | 0.512 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Misiorowski, Jacob: 2B
Suzuki, Seiya vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Bregman, Alex vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT GB
Busch, Michael vs Misiorowski, Jacob: 1B +1 run (1-0)
Hoerner, Nico vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
— Bottom 1 —
Chourio, Jackson vs Peterson, David: OUT GB
Turang, Brice vs Peterson, David: 1B
Vaughn, Andrew vs Peterson, David: 3B +1 run (1-1)
Contreras, William vs Peterson, David: OUT GB
Sánchez, Gary vs Peterson, David: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Happ, Ian vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Shaw, Matt vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Taylor, Tyrone vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Lara, Luis vs Peterson, David: OUT AIR
Ortiz, Joey vs Peterson, David: OUT GB
Mitchell, Garrett vs Peterson, David: 2B
Pratt, Cooper vs Peterson, David: 1B +1 run (1-2)
Chourio, Jackson vs Peterson, David: BB
Turang, Brice vs Peterson, David: 2B +1 run (1-3)
Vaughn, Andrew vs Peterson, David: BB
Contreras, William vs Peterson, David: 1B +2 runs (1-5)
Sánchez, Gary vs Peterson, David: BB
Lara, Luis vs Peterson, David: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Amaya, Miguel vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Suzuki, Seiya vs Misiorowski, Jacob: HR +1 run (2-5)
Bregman, Alex vs Misiorowski, Jacob: BB
Busch, Michael vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
— Bottom 3 —
Ortiz, Joey vs Ferguson, Tyler: K
Mitchell, Garrett vs Ferguson, Tyler: OUT AIR
Pratt, Cooper vs Ferguson, Tyler: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Hoerner, Nico vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT AIR
Happ, Ian vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
Shaw, Matt vs Misiorowski, Jacob: 3B
Taylor, Tyrone vs Misiorowski, Jacob: BB
Amaya, Miguel vs Misiorowski, Jacob: K
— Bottom 4 —
Chourio, Jackson vs Ferguson, Tyler: OUT AIR
Turang, Brice vs Palencia, Daniel: K
Vaughn, Andrew vs Palencia, Daniel: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT AIR
Suzuki, Seiya vs Misiorowski, Jacob: OUT AIR
Bregman, Alex vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Contreras, William vs Palencia, Daniel: 1B
Sánchez, Gary vs Palencia, Daniel: OUT GB
Lara, Luis vs Martin, Riley: BB
Ortiz, Joey vs Martin, Riley: K
— Top 6 —
Busch, Michael vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT GB
Hoerner, Nico vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT AIR
Happ, Ian vs Stallings, Garrett: 1B
Shaw, Matt vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Mitchell, Garrett vs Martin, Riley: 1B
Pratt, Cooper vs Martin, Riley: BB
Chourio, Jackson vs Martin, Riley: K
Turang, Brice vs Webb, Jacob: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Taylor, Tyrone vs Wilson, Bryse: OUT AIR
Amaya, Miguel vs Wilson, Bryse: BB
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Wilson, Bryse: K
Suzuki, Seiya vs Wilson, Bryse: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Vaughn, Andrew vs Webb, Jacob: K
Contreras, William vs Webb, Jacob: 1B
Sánchez, Gary vs Webb, Jacob: OUT AIR
Lara, Luis vs Webb, Jacob: OUT GB
— Top 8 —
Bregman, Alex vs Ashby, Aaron: BB
Busch, Michael vs Ashby, Aaron: 1B
Hoerner, Nico vs Ashby, Aaron: OUT AIR
Happ, Ian vs Ashby, Aaron: 2B +1 run (3-5)
Shaw, Matt vs Ashby, Aaron: K
Taylor, Tyrone vs Rom, Drew: K
— Bottom 8 —
Ortiz, Joey vs Harvey, Hunter: OUT AIR
Mitchell, Garrett vs Harvey, Hunter: BB
Pratt, Cooper vs Harvey, Hunter: 1B
Chourio, Jackson vs Harvey, Hunter: OUT AIR
Turang, Brice vs Harvey, Hunter: K
— Top 9 —
Amaya, Miguel vs Rom, Drew: K
Crow-Armstrong, Pete vs Rom, Drew: OUT GB
Suzuki, Seiya vs Rom, Drew: K