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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta
BAL @ DET, simulated 8,000 times.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Simulation verdict
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Bradish, Kyle vs Montero, Keider · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
BAL 41.1%DET 58.9%
3.58 – 4.27mean score
7.85mean total
58%NRFI
10.8%extra innings
5.42 / 5.02starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
BAL (gold) vs DET (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
BAL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beavers, Dylan | 4.694 | 1.025 | 0.078 | 1.471 | 0.432 | 1.076 | 0.293 |
| Alonso, Pete | 4.588 | 0.972 | 0.151 | 1.656 | 0.466 | 1.111 | 0.453 |
| Henderson, Gunnar | 4.489 | 0.9 | 0.131 | 1.515 | 0.343 | 1.004 | 0.458 |
| Ward, Taylor | 4.378 | 0.914 | 0.068 | 1.287 | 0.612 | 0.882 | 0.363 |
| Taveras, Leody | 4.282 | 0.872 | 0.07 | 1.271 | 0.409 | 1.065 | 0.379 |
| Holliday, Jackson | 4.171 | 0.831 | 0.108 | 1.343 | 0.502 | 0.965 | 0.435 |
| Mayo, Coby | 4.062 | 0.738 | 0.144 | 1.341 | 0.349 | 1.234 | 0.466 |
| Jackson, Jeremiah | 3.936 | 0.912 | 0.114 | 1.464 | 0.203 | 0.79 | 0.434 |
| Tromp, Chadwick | 3.814 | 0.779 | 0.073 | 1.129 | 0.256 | 0.937 | 0.3 |
Projected batting lines
DET per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGonigle, Kevin | 4.631 | 1.086 | 0.086 | 1.597 | 0.727 | 0.783 | 0.374 |
| Dingler, Dillon | 4.524 | 1.122 | 0.202 | 2.08 | 0.395 | 1.022 | 0.653 |
| Keith, Colt | 4.41 | 1.087 | 0.106 | 1.637 | 0.403 | 0.98 | 0.501 |
| Greene, Riley | 4.3 | 1.107 | 0.125 | 1.762 | 0.613 | 1.196 | 0.575 |
| Torkelson, Spencer | 4.209 | 0.788 | 0.161 | 1.467 | 0.508 | 1.377 | 0.561 |
| McKinstry, Zach | 4.102 | 0.823 | 0.065 | 1.169 | 0.459 | 0.804 | 0.379 |
| Lee, Hao-Yu | 3.996 | 0.975 | 0.11 | 1.53 | 0.318 | 1.046 | 0.476 |
| Outman, James | 3.886 | 0.724 | 0.11 | 1.217 | 0.35 | 1.363 | 0.408 |
| Vierling, Matt | 3.76 | 0.738 | 0.076 | 1.116 | 0.326 | 0.769 | 0.343 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Beavers, Dylan vs Montero, Keider: 1B
Alonso, Pete vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR
Henderson, Gunnar vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR
Ward, Taylor vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
McGonigle, Kevin vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT AIR
Dingler, Dillon vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT AIR
Keith, Colt vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Taveras, Leody vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Holliday, Jackson vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Mayo, Coby vs Montero, Keider: K
— Bottom 2 —
Greene, Riley vs Bradish, Kyle: K
Torkelson, Spencer vs Bradish, Kyle: K
McKinstry, Zach vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Jackson, Jeremiah vs Montero, Keider: 3B
Tromp, Chadwick vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR
Beavers, Dylan vs Montero, Keider: BB
Alonso, Pete vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR +1 run (1-0)
Henderson, Gunnar vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT AIR
Outman, James vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT GB
Vierling, Matt vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Ward, Taylor vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Taveras, Leody vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Holliday, Jackson vs Montero, Keider: BB
Mayo, Coby vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
McGonigle, Kevin vs Bradish, Kyle: 1B
Dingler, Dillon vs Bradish, Kyle: 1B
Keith, Colt vs Bradish, Kyle: 1B
Greene, Riley vs Bradish, Kyle: 1B +2 runs (1-2)
Torkelson, Spencer vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT GB
McKinstry, Zach vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Jackson, Jeremiah vs Montero, Keider: OUT AIR
Tromp, Chadwick vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Beavers, Dylan vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT GB
Outman, James vs Bradish, Kyle: K
Vierling, Matt vs Bradish, Kyle: K
— Top 6 —
Alonso, Pete vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Henderson, Gunnar vs Montero, Keider: K
Ward, Taylor vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
McGonigle, Kevin vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT GB
Dingler, Dillon vs Bradish, Kyle: OUT AIR
Keith, Colt vs Bradish, Kyle: K
— Top 7 —
Taveras, Leody vs Montero, Keider: BB
Holliday, Jackson vs Montero, Keider: OUT GB
Mayo, Coby vs Smith, Burch: OUT AIR
Jackson, Jeremiah vs Smith, Burch: 1B
Tromp, Chadwick vs Smith, Burch: K
— Bottom 7 —
Greene, Riley vs Bradish, Kyle: K
Torkelson, Spencer vs Bradish, Kyle: K
McKinstry, Zach vs Bradish, Kyle: K
— Top 8 —
Beavers, Dylan vs Smith, Burch: OUT AIR
Alonso, Pete vs Smith, Burch: K
Henderson, Gunnar vs Anderson, Drew: 1B
Ward, Taylor vs Anderson, Drew: 1B
Taveras, Leody vs Anderson, Drew: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Wells, Tyler: BB
Outman, James vs Wells, Tyler: OUT AIR
Vierling, Matt vs Wells, Tyler: 1B
McGonigle, Kevin vs Wells, Tyler: K
Dingler, Dillon vs Wells, Tyler: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Holliday, Jackson vs Anderson, Drew: K
Mayo, Coby vs Anderson, Drew: HR +1 run (2-2)
Jackson, Jeremiah vs Madden, Ty: K
Tromp, Chadwick vs Madden, Ty: K
— Bottom 9 —
Keith, Colt vs Wells, Tyler: OUT AIR
Greene, Riley vs Eflin, Zach: 1B
Torkelson, Spencer vs Eflin, Zach: OUT GB
McKinstry, Zach vs Eflin, Zach: OUT GB
— Top 10 —
Beavers, Dylan vs Madden, Ty: BB
Alonso, Pete vs Madden, Ty: 2B +1 run (3-2)
Henderson, Gunnar vs Madden, Ty: BB
Ward, Taylor vs Sommers, Drew: K
Taveras, Leody vs Sommers, Drew: 1B +1 run (4-2)
Holliday, Jackson vs Sommers, Drew: OUT AIR
Mayo, Coby vs Sommers, Drew: OUT GB
— Bottom 10 —
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Eflin, Zach: 1B +1 run (4-3)
Outman, James vs Walker, Josh: OUT AIR
Vierling, Matt vs Walker, Josh: OUT AIR
McGonigle, Kevin vs Walker, Josh: OUT AIR