Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta

PIT 9, CWS 3. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

PIT 9, CWS 3

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate

Final
9 – 3final score
12total runs
55% → 0%CWS win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox

Chandler, Bubba vs Burke, Sean · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-08
PIT 44.5%CWS 55.5%
3.86 – 4.29mean score
8.14mean total
57%NRFI
10.6%extra innings
5.62 / 7.02starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

PIT (gold) vs CWS (cyan)

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11

Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

PIT per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Griffin, Konnor 4.7461.0640.107 1.6040.361.5260.375
Lowe, Brandon 4.6230.980.18 1.7650.4321.6030.517
Reynolds, Bryan 4.5111.00.1 1.5220.5531.2910.424
Cruz, Oneil 4.4160.9260.162 1.6480.4811.6960.535
Valdez, Esmerlyn 4.3170.7990.174 1.5320.5411.7570.542
Horwitz, Spencer 4.2110.8350.094 1.2620.4830.8940.405
Flores Jr., Rafael 4.1050.7230.143 1.310.4291.4290.427
Gonzalez, Jacob 3.9880.8080.098 1.2520.2560.9880.354
Mangum, Jake 3.8570.9220.047 1.220.2440.9760.281
Projected batting lines

CWS per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Antonacci, Sam 4.6961.1690.069 1.6130.5210.9110.394
Vargas, Miguel 4.580.9720.16 1.7130.750.9670.546
Murakami, Munetaka 4.470.7560.191 1.5170.8391.6130.577
Benintendi, Andrew 4.3630.9480.108 1.4940.4641.1480.554
Montgomery, Colson 4.2510.7740.153 1.4190.431.5860.532
Montgomery, Braden 4.1420.840.068 1.2210.5260.9850.374
Peters, Tristan 4.041.0320.08 1.5480.3850.8630.455
Meidroth, Chase 3.930.9490.068 1.3390.4470.9830.42
Teel, Kyle 3.8210.7540.102 1.220.3851.2410.434
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Griffin, Konnor vs Burke, Sean: BB
Lowe, Brandon vs Burke, Sean: K
Reynolds, Bryan vs Burke, Sean: OUT AIR
Cruz, Oneil vs Burke, Sean: BB
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Burke, Sean: K
— Bottom 1 —
Antonacci, Sam vs Chandler, Bubba: K
Vargas, Miguel vs Chandler, Bubba: K
Murakami, Munetaka vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Horwitz, Spencer vs Burke, Sean: K
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Burke, Sean: OUT GB
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Burke, Sean: K
— Bottom 2 —
Benintendi, Andrew vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT GB
Montgomery, Colson vs Chandler, Bubba: K
Montgomery, Braden vs Chandler, Bubba: K
— Top 3 —
Mangum, Jake vs Burke, Sean: 1B
Griffin, Konnor vs Burke, Sean: OUT AIR
Lowe, Brandon vs Burke, Sean: HR +2 runs (2-0)
Reynolds, Bryan vs Burke, Sean: OUT GB
Cruz, Oneil vs Burke, Sean: 1B
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Burke, Sean: K
— Bottom 3 —
Peters, Tristan vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT GB
Meidroth, Chase vs Chandler, Bubba: 1B
Teel, Kyle vs Chandler, Bubba: K
Antonacci, Sam vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Horwitz, Spencer vs Burke, Sean: 1B
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Burke, Sean: OUT GB
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Burke, Sean: K
Mangum, Jake vs Burke, Sean: K
— Bottom 4 —
Vargas, Miguel vs Chandler, Bubba: BB
Murakami, Munetaka vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT AIR
Benintendi, Andrew vs Chandler, Bubba: BB
Montgomery, Colson vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT AIR
Montgomery, Braden vs Chandler, Bubba: 1B +1 run (2-1)
Peters, Tristan vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Griffin, Konnor vs Burke, Sean: 1B
Lowe, Brandon vs Burke, Sean: OUT AIR
Reynolds, Bryan vs Burke, Sean: OUT AIR
Cruz, Oneil vs Murphy, Chris: K
— Bottom 5 —
Meidroth, Chase vs Chandler, Bubba: BB
Teel, Kyle vs Chandler, Bubba: K
Antonacci, Sam vs Chandler, Bubba: OUT GB
Vargas, Miguel vs Chandler, Bubba: BB
Murakami, Munetaka vs Chandler, Bubba: K
— Top 6 —
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Murphy, Chris: 2B
Horwitz, Spencer vs Murphy, Chris: K
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Murphy, Chris: HR +2 runs (4-1)
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Richards, Trevor: OUT AIR
Mangum, Jake vs Richards, Trevor: 1B
Griffin, Konnor vs Richards, Trevor: 1B
Lowe, Brandon vs Richards, Trevor: BB
Reynolds, Bryan vs Richards, Trevor: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Benintendi, Andrew vs Sisk, Evan: K
Montgomery, Colson vs Sisk, Evan: OUT AIR
Montgomery, Braden vs Sisk, Evan: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Cruz, Oneil vs Hicks, Jordan: K
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Hicks, Jordan: BB
Horwitz, Spencer vs Hicks, Jordan: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Peters, Tristan vs Sisk, Evan: OUT AIR
Meidroth, Chase vs Sisk, Evan: K
Teel, Kyle vs Ramírez, Yohan: K
— Top 8 —
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Hicks, Jordan: 1B
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Hicks, Jordan: OUT AIR
Mangum, Jake vs Hicks, Jordan: BB
Griffin, Konnor vs Smith, Hagen: OUT GB
Lowe, Brandon vs Smith, Hagen: BB
Reynolds, Bryan vs Smith, Hagen: 1B +2 runs (6-1)
Cruz, Oneil vs Smith, Hagen: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Antonacci, Sam vs Ramírez, Yohan: K
Vargas, Miguel vs Ramírez, Yohan: 1B
Murakami, Munetaka vs Ramírez, Yohan: BB
Benintendi, Andrew vs Lawrence, Justin: K
Montgomery, Colson vs Lawrence, Justin: 1B +1 run (6-2)
Montgomery, Braden vs Lawrence, Justin: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Urquidy, José: K
Horwitz, Spencer vs Urquidy, José: OUT GB
Flores Jr., Rafael vs Urquidy, José: 1B
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Urquidy, José: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Peters, Tristan vs Lawrence, Justin: K
Meidroth, Chase vs Soto, Gregory: OUT AIR
Teel, Kyle vs Soto, Gregory: K