Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-06-17

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-06-17

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 1

← 2026-06-18 2026-06-16 →

Lane Health 2026-06-19

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Eli White

ATL vs SF | +530

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 15.2%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Eli White

ATL vs SF | vs Adrian Houser

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 15.2%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Adrian Houser, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +530 31.1% 15.2% Premium Zone

BetMGM +525 31.1% 15.1% Premium Zone

DraftKings +525 31.1% 15.1% Premium Zone

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs WSH | vs Zack Littell

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.3% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Strong Zone look against Zack Littell, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

BetMGM +465 26.0% 8.3% Strong Zone

DraftKings +465 26.0% 8.3% Strong Zone

Casey Schmitt

SF vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 7

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.5%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 7 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

BetMGM Best +640 26.0% 12.5% Strong Zone

DraftKings +640 26.0% 12.5% Strong Zone

FanDuel +640 26.0% 12.5% Strong Zone

Bo Bichette

NYM vs CIN | vs Nick Lodolo

#10

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.3% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Nick Lodolo, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +695 26.0% 13.4% Strong Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Eli White

ATL vs SF | vs Adrian Houser

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 15.2%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Adrian Houser, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +530 31.1% 15.2% Premium Zone

BetMGM +525 31.1% 15.1% Premium Zone

DraftKings +525 31.1% 15.1% Premium Zone

Roman Anthony

BOS vs TOR | vs Max Scherzer

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.5%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.1% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Max Scherzer, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +700 26.0% 13.5% Strong Zone

FanDuel +700 26.0% 13.5% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Eli White

ATL vs SF | vs Adrian Houser

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 15.2%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 31.1% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Adrian Houser, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +530 31.1% 15.2% Premium Zone

BetMGM +525 31.1% 15.1% Premium Zone

DraftKings +525 31.1% 15.1% Premium Zone

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs WSH | vs Zack Littell

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.3% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Strong Zone look against Zack Littell, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +465 26.0% 8.3% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Eli White ATL vs SF | +530 31.1% | Premium Zone

Vinnie Pasquantino KC vs WSH | +475 26.0% | Strong Zone

Joint Prob 8.1%

Joint Gap 5.3%

Structure Distinct Games