Section III · Betting · 2026-07-27

SEA at TEX

Kirby, George vs Rocker, Kumar · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean SEA or TEX?

Mithrandir leans TEX over SEA.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

57.8% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs SEA 4.7 · TEX 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.2 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line SEA -1.5 · TEX 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.2% · YRFI 51.8% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 20 Available in 20 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

20 matched rows

Home runs · TEX vs SEA Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P17.6% F20.2% V12.9%

Model 23.6% Market 15.6% Model-market gap +8.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · SEA vs TEX Josh Naylor Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.4% F15.5% V13.3%

Model 23.1% Market 16.2% Model-market gap +6.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs SEA Joc Pederson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.2% F15.5% V12.1%

Model 20.2% Market 14.1% Model-market gap +6.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs TEX Josh Naylor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.9% F-- V--

Model 33.9% Market 18.2% Provisional model gap +15.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs SEA Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.3% F-- V--

Model 36.3% Market 21.5% Provisional model gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs SEA Jake Burger Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.4% F-- V--

Model 39.4% Market 26.0% Provisional model gap +13.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs TEX Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.4% F-- V--

Model 41.4% Market 29.0% Provisional model gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs SEA Joc Pederson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.1% F-- V--

Model 44.1% Market 32.3% Provisional model gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs TEX Luke Raley Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.5% F-- V--

Model 45.5% Market 34.5% Provisional model gap +11.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs TEX Victor Robles Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.4% F-- V--

Model 47.4% Market 37.0% Provisional model gap +10.4 pts

Open board

Hits · SEA vs TEX Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P81.9% F-- V--

Model 81.9% Market 72.2% Provisional model gap +9.6 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · SEA vs TEX George Kirby Over 18.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.8% F-- V--

Model 50.8% Market 42.4% Provisional model gap +8.4 pts

Open board

Hits · TEX vs SEA Joc Pederson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P84.4% F-- V--

Model 44.5% Market 37.0% Provisional model gap +7.5 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · TEX vs SEA Kumar Rocker Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P57.3% F-- V50.9%

Model 57.3% Market 50.0% Provisional model gap +7.3 pts

Open board

Hits · TEX vs SEA Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P74.8% F-- V--

Model 74.8% Market 69.7% Provisional model gap +5.1 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · TEX vs SEA Kumar Rocker Over 16.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.3% F-- V--

Model 52.3% Market 47.4% Provisional model gap +4.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.