Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta

SEA 3, TEX 7. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

SEA 3, TEX 7

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:50Z UTC · back to slate

Final
3 – 7final score
10total runs
Pregame baseline

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

Kirby, George vs Rocker, Kumar · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-07-27
SEA 42.2%TEX 57.8%
4.24 – 4.72mean score
8.95mean total
51%NRFI
9.3%extra innings
5.12 / 4.98starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

SEA (gold) vs TEX (cyan)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

SEA per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Young, Cole 4.8111.1150.15 1.8080.3720.9010.448
Rodríguez, Julio 4.6911.0990.156 1.8160.4260.9620.502
Canzone, Dominic 4.5751.070.192 1.9320.4620.950.604
Arozarena, Randy 4.4651.0980.114 1.6940.4910.9680.504
Naylor, Josh 4.3630.9940.077 1.3810.3870.6190.425
Raley, Luke 4.2580.9670.186 1.7750.2971.2240.574
Garver, Mitch 4.1490.7620.115 1.2570.5221.220.394
Crawford, J.P. 4.040.7590.103 1.2170.5430.8420.371
Emerson, Colt 3.930.7870.129 1.3450.371.1190.413
Projected batting lines

TEX per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Pederson, Joc 4.7021.1670.187 2.0360.4721.1380.562
Langford, Wyatt 4.5811.3250.174 2.2230.3430.9680.612
Duran, Ezequiel 4.4651.2290.113 1.8890.3371.0620.568
Nimmo, Brandon 4.3551.1910.1 1.7760.3690.9450.591
Carter, Evan 4.2560.8590.096 1.3270.4961.0110.471
Burger, Jake 4.1551.0470.149 1.7440.3331.0540.592
Lopez, Nicky 4.0531.1990.06 1.560.2640.6710.44
Smith, Josh 3.9410.9230.059 1.2430.3920.8280.37
Díaz, Elias 3.8281.0280.114 1.5760.2160.7910.51
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Young, Cole vs Rocker, Kumar: BB
Rodríguez, Julio vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Canzone, Dominic vs Rocker, Kumar: 2B
Arozarena, Randy vs Rocker, Kumar: 2B +2 runs (2-0)
Naylor, Josh vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Raley, Luke vs Rocker, Kumar: BB
Garver, Mitch vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B
Crawford, J.P. vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B +1 run (3-0)
Emerson, Colt vs Rocker, Kumar: K
— Bottom 1 —
Pederson, Joc vs Kirby, George: BB
Langford, Wyatt vs Kirby, George: K
Duran, Ezequiel vs Kirby, George: 1B
Nimmo, Brandon vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
Carter, Evan vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Young, Cole vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Rodríguez, Julio vs Rocker, Kumar: K
Canzone, Dominic vs Rocker, Kumar: K
— Bottom 2 —
Burger, Jake vs Kirby, George: K
Lopez, Nicky vs Kirby, George: 1B
Smith, Josh vs Kirby, George: K
Díaz, Elias vs Kirby, George: K
— Top 3 —
Arozarena, Randy vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Naylor, Josh vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B
Raley, Luke vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT GB
Garver, Mitch vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Pederson, Joc vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
Langford, Wyatt vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
Duran, Ezequiel vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Crawford, J.P. vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT GB
Emerson, Colt vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
Young, Cole vs Rocker, Kumar: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Nimmo, Brandon vs Kirby, George: BB
Carter, Evan vs Kirby, George: BB
Burger, Jake vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
Lopez, Nicky vs Kirby, George: 1B +1 run (3-1)
Smith, Josh vs Kirby, George: K
Díaz, Elias vs Kirby, George: 1B +1 run (3-2)
Pederson, Joc vs Kirby, George: 1B
Langford, Wyatt vs Kirby, George: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Rodríguez, Julio vs Rocker, Kumar: 1B
Canzone, Dominic vs Rocker, Kumar: HR +2 runs (5-2)
Arozarena, Randy vs Gray, Peyton: K
Naylor, Josh vs Gray, Peyton: OUT AIR
Raley, Luke vs Gray, Peyton: 1B
Garver, Mitch vs Gray, Peyton: K
— Bottom 5 —
Duran, Ezequiel vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
Nimmo, Brandon vs Kirby, George: 1B
Carter, Evan vs Kirby, George: OUT GB
Burger, Jake vs Kirby, George: 1B
Lopez, Nicky vs Kirby, George: 1B +1 run (5-3)
Smith, Josh vs Kirby, George: K
— Top 6 —
Crawford, J.P. vs Junis, Jakob: 1B
Emerson, Colt vs Junis, Jakob: OUT AIR
Young, Cole vs Junis, Jakob: 1B
Rodríguez, Julio vs Junis, Jakob: 1B
Canzone, Dominic vs Junis, Jakob: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Díaz, Elias vs Rucker, Michael: OUT AIR
Pederson, Joc vs Rucker, Michael: BB
Langford, Wyatt vs Rucker, Michael: 2B
Duran, Ezequiel vs Rucker, Michael: OUT AIR
Nimmo, Brandon vs Ferrer, José A.: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Arozarena, Randy vs Winn, Cole: OUT AIR
Naylor, Josh vs Winn, Cole: BB
Raley, Luke vs Winn, Cole: K
Garver, Mitch vs Winn, Cole: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Carter, Evan vs Ferrer, José A.: OUT AIR
Burger, Jake vs Ferrer, José A.: OUT AIR
Lopez, Nicky vs Ferrer, José A.: K
— Top 8 —
Crawford, J.P. vs Latz, Jacob: HR +1 run (6-3)
Emerson, Colt vs Latz, Jacob: K
Young, Cole vs Latz, Jacob: OUT AIR
Rodríguez, Julio vs Latz, Jacob: 1B
Canzone, Dominic vs Martin, Chris: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Smith, Josh vs Ferrer, José A.: 1B
Díaz, Elias vs Bazardo, Eduard: K
Pederson, Joc vs Bazardo, Eduard: OUT GB
Langford, Wyatt vs Bazardo, Eduard: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Arozarena, Randy vs Martin, Chris: K
Naylor, Josh vs Martin, Chris: K
Raley, Luke vs Martin, Chris: K
— Bottom 9 —
Duran, Ezequiel vs Bazardo, Eduard: K
Nimmo, Brandon vs Muñoz, Andrés: 2B
Carter, Evan vs Muñoz, Andrés: OUT AIR
Burger, Jake vs Muñoz, Andrés: OUT AIR