Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

COL at NYY

Hughes, Gabriel vs Schlittler, Cam · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean COL or NYY?

Mithrandir leans NYY over COL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

68.3% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs COL 3.7 · NYY 4.9 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.5 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line COL 1.5 · NYY -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.5% · YRFI 50.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 13 Available in 13 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

13 matched rows

Total bases · COL vs NYY Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.0% F-- V--

Model 45.0% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +11.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs NYY Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.7% F-- V--

Model 46.7% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +11.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs NYY Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.6% F-- V--

Model 48.6% Market 38.5% Model-market gap +10.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs NYY Jordan Beck Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.6% F-- V--

Model 51.6% Market 42.6% Model-market gap +9.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs NYY Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.4% F-- V--

Model 51.4% Market 42.6% Model-market gap +8.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · COL vs NYY Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.0% F11.7% V6.9%

Model 15.6% Market 12.0% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · COL vs NYY Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.2% F10.7% V7.2%

Model 15.6% Market 12.5% Model-market gap +3.1 pts

Open board

Hits · COL vs NYY Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 69.4% Market 39.2% Provisional model gap +30.1 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · NYY vs COL Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 · Healthy / active roster

P68.3% F-- V55.1%

Model 68.3% Market 46.7% Provisional model gap +21.6 pts

Open board

Hits · COL vs NYY Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P87.0% F-- V--

Model 87.0% Market 73.0% Provisional model gap +14.0 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · NYY vs COL Cam Schlittler Over 18.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.5% F-- V--

Model 47.5% Market 39.6% Provisional model gap +7.8 pts

Open board

Hits · COL vs NYY Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P85.0% F-- V--

Model 45.3% Market 39.2% Provisional model gap +6.1 pts

Open board

Hits · COL vs NYY Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P20.4% F-- V--

Model 62.0% Market 56.5% Provisional model gap +5.5 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.