Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

LAD at MIA

Away starter pending vs Ryan Gusto · 7:10 PM ET

Scheduled 7:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean LAD or MIA?

The run projection leans LAD over MIA.

Projected runs: LAD 4.8, MIA 4.1. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs LAD 4.8 · MIA 4.1 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.9 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line LAD -1.5 · MIA 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.1% · YRFI 50.9% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 17 Available in 17 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

17 matched rows

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P25.6% F-- V--

Model 31.6% Market 12.3% Model-market gap +19.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.1% F-- V--

Model 32.1% Market 13.1% Model-market gap +19.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P31.9% F-- V--

Model 35.1% Market 18.0% Model-market gap +17.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Mookie Betts Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.9% F-- V--

Model 35.1% Market 18.0% Model-market gap +17.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Teoscar Hernández Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.3% F-- V--

Model 35.3% Market 18.3% Model-market gap +16.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Will Smith Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.3% F-- V--

Model 41.3% Market 28.2% Model-market gap +13.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Max Muncy Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.6% F-- V--

Model 42.3% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +12.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · LAD vs MIA Alex Call Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.6% F-- V--

Model 51.6% Market 42.6% Model-market gap +9.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · LAD vs MIA Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.1% F13.2% V15.2%

Model 21.1% Market 16.2% Model-market gap +5.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · LAD vs MIA Mookie Betts Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.4% F12.6% V13.9%

Model 18.8% Market 15.4% Model-market gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · LAD vs MIA Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P86.2% F86.6% V80.3%

Model 79.0% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Strikeouts · MIA vs LAD Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P64.3% F-- V48.1%

Model 64.3% Market 49.6% Provisional model gap +14.7 pts

Open board

Hits · LAD vs MIA Will Smith Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P80.6% F-- V--

Model 80.6% Market 68.8% Provisional model gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Hits · LAD vs MIA Max Muncy Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P82.7% F-- V--

Model 82.7% Market 74.4% Provisional model gap +8.4 pts

Open board

Hits · LAD vs MIA Mookie Betts Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P72.6% F-- V--

Model 72.6% Market 67.7% Provisional model gap +4.9 pts

Open board

Hits · LAD vs MIA Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.4% F-- V--

Model 39.4% Market 35.7% Provisional model gap +3.7 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Los Angeles D win contract 67.5% Bid 67c · ask 68c

Miami win contract 31.5% Bid 31c · ask 32c

First inning run: Yes 42.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.