Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

SEA at ATH

George Kirby vs Jeffrey Springs · 9:40 PM ET

Scheduled 9:40 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean SEA or ATH?

The run projection leans SEA over ATH.

Projected runs: SEA 5.2, ATH 4.6. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs SEA 5.2 · ATH 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.8 · Market 10.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line SEA -1.5 · ATH 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 45.3% · YRFI 54.7% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 12 Available in 12 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

12 matched rows

Total bases · SEA vs ATH Julio Rodríguez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.1% F-- V--

Model 34.1% Market 16.4% Model-market gap +17.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs ATH Josh Naylor Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.5% F-- V--

Model 36.5% Market 20.4% Model-market gap +16.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs ATH Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.4% F-- V--

Model 40.4% Market 26.7% Model-market gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs ATH Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.4% F-- V--

Model 40.4% Market 26.7% Model-market gap +13.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · SEA vs ATH Victor Robles Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.7% F-- V--

Model 40.7% Market 27.0% Model-market gap +13.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs SEA Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.2% F-- V--

Model 42.2% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +12.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs SEA Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.2% F-- V--

Model 46.2% Market 35.1% Model-market gap +11.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATH vs SEA Zack Gelof Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.6% F-- V--

Model 51.6% Market 42.6% Model-market gap +9.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · SEA vs ATH Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.2% F13.2% V13.6%

Model 18.8% Market 14.4% Model-market gap +4.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · SEA vs ATH Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P86.6% F88.3% V85.2%

Model 80.8% Market -- Model-market gap No priced gap

Open board

Strikeouts · SEA vs ATH George Kirby Over 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P62.5% F-- V48.2%

Model 62.5% Market 54.4% Provisional model gap +8.1 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · ATH vs SEA Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P64.9% F-- V48.5%

Model 64.9% Market 57.2% Provisional model gap +7.8 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

A's win contract 40.5% Bid 40c · ask 41c

Seattle win contract 59.5% Bid 59c · ask 60c

First inning run: Yes 54.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.