Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-04 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
156
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-06-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 2
 26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 25.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
0.4pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
02
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 26.0%Fangorn 17.8%market +8.2pp
P 24.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.0pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
03
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 10.0%market +7.9pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
04
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 17.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +6.5pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
06
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 8.3%market +5.9pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.4pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
07
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +5.4pp
P 19.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.5pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
08
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 15.7%Fangorn 10.9%market +4.9pp
P 19.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.7pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
09
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 13.1%market +4.8pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
10
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 6
 19.6%Fangorn 15.5%market +4.1pp
P 19.7
F 19.6
V 19.6
0.1pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
11
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 14.1%market +3.8pp
P 22.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
12
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 11.9%market +3.6pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.9pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
13
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 15.5%Fangorn 11.9%market +3.6pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.1pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
14
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 14.8%market +3.1pp
P 22.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.5pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
15
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 14.6%market +2.6pp
P 18.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.5pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
16
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 15.8%market +2.2pp
P 22.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
17
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 22.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
18
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 16.9%market +1.1pp
P 24.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.7pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
19
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 21.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
20
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 23.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.6pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
21
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 15.5%Fangorn 14.8%market +0.7pp
P 17.3
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.8pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
22
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5
 15.7%Fangorn 16.1%market -0.4pp
P 19.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
23
Adolis García PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -0.8pp
P 19.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.0pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
24
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 18.9%market -1.0pp
P 21.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.4pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
25
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.1pp
P 21.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.5pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
26
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -1.7pp
P 24.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.2pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
27
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.0pp
P 21.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
7.3pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
28
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -2.5pp
P 23.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.6pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
29
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.7pp
P 10.9
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.5pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
31
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 18.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.1pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
32
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.1pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
33
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5
 17.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -1.3pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
34
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3
 15.7%Fangorn 19.1%market -3.3pp
P 19.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
35
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 21.1%market -3.8pp
P 16.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
36
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 22.5%market -4.6pp
P 23.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.3pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
37
Shea Langeliers ATH
IN
ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 22.0%market -4.8pp
P 22.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
5.2pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
38
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6
 14.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.0pp
P 15.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
39
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 23.0%market -5.8pp
P 22.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
5.1pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
40
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 3.4%Fangorn 11.0%market -7.6pp
P 12.7
F 3.4
V 3.4
9.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
41
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -9.1pp
P 22.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.7pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
42
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 29.8%market -11.9pp
P 19.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
43
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 29.8%market -11.9pp
P 21.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.8pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
44
Nick Kurtz ATH
IN
ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 26.0%market -12.6pp
P 20.2
F 13.4
V 13.4
6.9pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1578roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.