Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
156
Lineups
144
HR BOARD 2026-06-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 10.7%market +9.6pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
02
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 11.9%market +9.5pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.9pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
03
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 14.1%market +9.0pp
P 22.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
04
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +8.7pp
P 17.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 10.0%market +8.0pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
06
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 10.9%market +8.0pp
P 19.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.7pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
07
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 14.8%market +7.5pp
P 22.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.5pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
08
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 12.5%market +7.4pp
P 19.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.5pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
09
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 15.5%market +7.0pp
P 21.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
7.3pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
10
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.3%market +6.6pp
P 21.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.5pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
11
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 13.1%market +6.1pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
12
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 16.9%market +5.9pp
P 24.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.7pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
13
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFAdrian Houser · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 16.4%market +5.9pp
P 25.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
0.4pp 1.207xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
14
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 14.6%market +5.6pp
P 18.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.5pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
15
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 8.3%market +5.6pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.4pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
16
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 15.8%market +5.3pp
P 22.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
17
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 16.4%market +5.0pp
P 22.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
18
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 18.7%market +4.6pp
P 24.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.2pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 415 avg 3 books
19
Adolis García PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 17.0%market +4.5pp
P 19.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.0pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
20
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +4.5pp
P 21.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
21
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +4.4pp
P 23.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.6pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
22
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 19.4%market +4.2pp
P 23.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.6pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
23
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 18.0%market +3.6pp
P 21.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.4pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
24
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 15.5%Valinor 11.9%market +3.2pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.1pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
25
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 15.5%Valinor 14.8%market +3.2pp
P 17.3
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.8pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
26
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 26.0%Valinor 17.8%market +3.1pp
P 24.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.0pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
27
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5
 15.7%Valinor 15.4%market +3.0pp
P 19.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
28
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 6
 19.6%Valinor 15.5%market +2.8pp
P 19.7
F 19.6
V 19.6
0.1pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
29
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 5
 17.9%Valinor 18.1%market +2.6pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
30
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +2.0pp
P 10.9
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.5pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +1.9pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
32
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +1.9pp
P 18.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.1pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
33
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 21.4%market +1.8pp
P 23.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.3pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
34
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 18.1%market +1.3pp
P 19.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
35
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.5%market +1.2pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
36
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 3.4%Valinor 10.5%market +1.0pp
P 12.7
F 3.4
V 3.4
9.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
37
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 21.6%market +0.8pp
P 22.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
5.1pp 1.229xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 345 avg 3 books
38
Shea Langeliers ATH
IN
ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 20.9%market +0.6pp
P 22.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
5.2pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
39
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 19.2%market -2.1pp
P 15.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
40
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs SDLucas Giolito · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 27.0%market -3.3pp
P 22.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.7pp 1.225xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
41
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 21.1%market -4.4pp
P 16.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.7pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
42
Nick Kurtz ATH
IN
ATH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.4%Valinor 26.0%market -5.4pp
P 20.2
F 13.4
V 13.4
6.9pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
43
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs CLESlade Cecconi · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 29.8%market -6.9pp
P 21.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.8pp 1.141xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
44
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 29.8%market -8.8pp
P 19.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1578roster/transaction rows
Lineups144confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.