Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-05 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
75
Matched
264
Lineups
216
HR BOARD 2026-06-05 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 13.6%market +8.0pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
02
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 14.8%market +7.9pp
P 22.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.8pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
03
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 17.9%Valinor 11.7%market +7.1pp
P 18.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
04
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 10.9%market +7.1pp
P 18.5
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.0pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
05
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 5
 17.9%Valinor 15.1%market +7.0pp
P 20.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.6pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
06
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 10.0%market +6.9pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 1.063xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07
Daniel Schneemann CLE
IN
CLE vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
 10.3%Valinor 10.6%market +6.4pp
P 15.6
F 10.3
V 10.3
5.3pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
08
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 11.4%Valinor 11.1%market +6.3pp
P 20.9
F 11.4
V 11.4
9.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
09
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 13.3%market +6.3pp
P 20.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.075xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
10
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 11.7%market +6.2pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 13.5%market +6.2pp
P 18.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.9pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
12
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 13.9%market +6.2pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
13
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 9.1%market +6.2pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
14
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
 13.6%Valinor 10.5%market +6.0pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
15
Matt Chapman SF
IN
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 15.4%market +6.0pp
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.0pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
16
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 12.5%market +5.9pp
P 18.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.8pp 1.063xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
17
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 17.9%Valinor 12.3%market +5.8pp
P 16.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
18
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 12.4%market +5.6pp
P 17.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
19
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 13.5%market +5.1pp
P 16.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
20
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 9.8%market +4.9pp
P 13.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
21
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2
 13.6%Valinor 8.7%market +4.8pp
P 13.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.1pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
22
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 7
 13.4%Valinor 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.2pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +4.6pp
P 22.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
24
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 8.7%market +4.3pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
25
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 16.4%market +4.2pp
P 23.8
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.1pp 1.063xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
26
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 12.5%market +4.1pp
P 22.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.9pp 1.075xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
27
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 17.2%Valinor 13.5%market +3.9pp
P 17.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
29
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6
 14.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.8pp
P 12.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 15.8%market +3.8pp
P 21.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.0pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
31
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 12.7%market +3.8pp
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
32
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 14.2%market +3.6pp
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
33
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 19.8%market +3.5pp
P 23.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.1pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 385 avg 3 books
34
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 12.5%market +3.5pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
35
Rob Refsnyder SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 12.2%market +3.4pp
P 17.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 695 avg 3 books
36
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.3pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 11.7%market +3.3pp
P 16.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.8pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
38
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 14.4%market +3.3pp
P 19.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
39
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 11.1%Valinor 13.2%market +3.2pp
P 13.5
F 11.1
V 11.1
2.4pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
40
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 13.6%market +2.9pp
P 15.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.5pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
41
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 16.9%market +2.8pp
P 19.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
42
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +2.8pp
P 18.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
43
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 26.0%Valinor 16.7%market +2.8pp
P 22.2
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
44
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6
 15.7%Valinor 7.7%market +2.5pp
P 13.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 7
 14.2%Valinor 11.9%market +2.5pp
P 14.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
46
Cody Bellinger NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 16.9%market +2.4pp
P 21.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
47
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 14.8%market +2.3pp
P 16.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.2pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
48
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 16.7%market +2.2pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
49
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 19.6%Valinor 16.4%market +2.1pp
P 21.4
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
50
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 9.1%Valinor 7.7%market +2.1pp
P 9.0
F 9.1
V 9.1
0.1pp 1.134xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 19.4%market +2.0pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.5pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
52
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 17.6%market +1.8pp
P 21.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.3pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
53
Victor Scott II STL
IN
STL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 0.0%Valinor 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 8.1
F 0.0
V 0.0
8.1pp 1.075xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
54
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 17.8%market +1.4pp
P 20.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
55
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +1.4pp
P 19.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.4pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
56
Kyle Manzardo CLE
IN
CLE vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 15.7%Valinor 16.7%market +1.3pp
P 19.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.9pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
57
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 17.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.0pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
58
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 13.4%Valinor 10.1%market +1.2pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
59
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 16.2%market +1.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.8pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
60
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 15.4%market +1.0pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
61
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +0.9pp
P 18.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
62
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +0.4pp
P 17.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
63
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 10.2
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.2pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
64
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 2.8%Valinor 10.5%market +0.1pp
P 11.8
F 2.8
V 2.8
8.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
65
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 15.7%market -0.2pp
P 16.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
66
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 21.5%market -0.7pp
P 18.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.3pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
67
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 18.8%market -0.9pp
P 17.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.3pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
68
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 18.6%market -1.0pp
P 18.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 1.024xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
69
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 21.2%market -1.2pp
P 19.3
F 15.7
V 15.7
3.6pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
70
Kerry Carpenter DET
IN
DET vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 19.7%market -1.4pp
P 16.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 1.023xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
71
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 4.7%Valinor 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 6.3
F 4.7
V 4.7
1.6pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
72
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 0.0%Valinor 8.0%market -4.9pp
P 4.4
F 0.0
V 0.0
4.4pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
73
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 24.1%market -5.0pp
P 18.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
74
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 21.1%market -5.1pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
75
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 22.0%market -6.3pp
P 16.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.5pp 0.919xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1592roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.