Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-06-18 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3 |
23.9%Palantir | 11.7%market | +12.2pp |
P
23.9
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
2.0pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Evan Carter
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6 |
23.1%Palantir | 11.0%market | +12.1pp |
P
23.1
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
3.5pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Iván Herrera
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2 |
23.4%Palantir | 13.1%market | +10.4pp |
P
23.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
5.5pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Nathan Lukes
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6 |
18.8%Palantir | 9.1%market | +9.7pp |
P
18.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.9pp | 1.078xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 960 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1 |
24.0%Palantir | 14.4%market | +9.7pp |
P
24.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
6.1pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 570 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Trea Turner
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1 |
23.3%Palantir | 14.7%market | +8.6pp |
P
23.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
5.4pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 555 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Austin Hays
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 5 |
20.2%Palantir | 11.7%market | +8.5pp |
P
20.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.2pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 725 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
22.1%Palantir | 13.7%market | +8.4pp |
P
22.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.2pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 600 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3 |
24.0%Palantir | 15.6%market | +8.3pp |
P
24.0
F
23.4
V
23.4
|
0.6pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Cody Bellinger
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3 |
24.9%Palantir | 16.9%market | +8.0pp |
P
24.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
7.0pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 470 avg 3 books |
| 11 | Lineup pending | CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4 |
18.9%Palantir | 11.7%market | +7.2pp |
P
18.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.0pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5 |
18.1%Palantir | 11.1%market | +7.0pp |
P
18.1
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.8pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 775 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 7 |
18.4%Palantir | 11.9%market | +6.5pp |
P
18.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.5pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 705 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Ramón Urías
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5 |
16.1%Palantir | 10.4%market | +5.7pp |
P
16.1
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
0.3pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 830 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6 |
13.3%Palantir | 7.7%market | +5.6pp |
P
13.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.9pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1 |
16.1%Palantir | 10.5%market | +5.6pp |
P
16.1
F
9.1
V
9.1
|
7.0pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Josh Bell
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4 |
20.3%Palantir | 14.8%market | +5.5pp |
P
20.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.4pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4 |
21.6%Palantir | 16.2%market | +5.4pp |
P
21.6
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
2.0pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2 |
23.8%Palantir | 18.5%market | +5.3pp |
P
23.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
5.9pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 420 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Ben Rice
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6 |
20.5%Palantir | 15.5%market | +5.0pp |
P
20.5
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
5.4pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 520 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2 |
22.7%Palantir | 18.0%market | +4.8pp |
P
22.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.8pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 435 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5 |
17.8%Palantir | 13.2%market | +4.6pp |
P
17.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.6pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 630 avg 3 books |
| 23 | Lineup pending | NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5 |
22.7%Palantir | 18.1%market | +4.5pp |
P
22.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.8pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 430 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Jesús Sánchez
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5 |
16.6%Palantir | 12.3%market | +4.2pp |
P
16.6
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.4pp | 1.078xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Willy Adames
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4 |
21.5%Palantir | 17.3%market | +4.2pp |
P
21.5
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
4.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 455 avg 3 books |
| 26 | Lineup pending | SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6 |
15.4%Palantir | 11.6%market | +3.8pp |
P
15.4
F
2.8
V
2.8
|
12.6pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 730 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Matt Chapman
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3 |
19.7%Palantir | 15.9%market | +3.8pp |
P
19.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.8pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 505 avg 3 books |
| 28 | Lineup pending | KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6 |
13.6%Palantir | 9.8%market | +3.8pp |
P
13.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.2pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1 |
11.0%Palantir | 7.7%market | +3.4pp |
P
11.0
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
0.1pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 | Lineup pending | KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1 |
20.4%Palantir | 17.3%market | +3.1pp |
P
20.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.2pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 455 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6 |
16.5%Palantir | 13.5%market | +3.0pp |
P
16.5
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
0.7pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 32 | IN | TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2 |
18.7%Palantir | 16.2%market | +2.5pp |
P
18.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.8pp | 1.078xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5 |
15.8%Palantir | 13.5%market | +2.4pp |
P
15.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.6pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5 |
16.5%Palantir | 14.1%market | +2.3pp |
P
16.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.4pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Brendan Donovan
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 6 |
12.0%Palantir | 9.8%market | +2.3pp |
P
12.0
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.2pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 890 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Adolis García
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4 |
19.9%Palantir | 17.8%market | +2.1pp |
P
19.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.0pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5 |
12.7%Palantir | 11.9%market | +0.8pp |
P
12.7
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
1.2pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 710 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Lane Thomas
KC
Lineup pending
|
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5 |
13.7%Palantir | 13.3%market | +0.5pp |
P
13.7
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.4pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 39 | Lineup pending | KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3 |
19.8%Palantir | 16.0%market | +3.8pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.9pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 500 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
George Springer
TOR
IN
|
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1 |
20.3%Palantir | 16.7%market | +3.6pp |
P
20.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.1pp | 1.078xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 5 |
17.4%Palantir | 13.8%market | +3.5pp |
P
17.4
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
1.9pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 595 avg 3 books |
| 42 | Lineup pending | KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4 |
19.4%Palantir | 17.8%market | +1.7pp |
P
19.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.2pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Luis Arraez
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1 |
9.3%Palantir | 7.7%market | +1.6pp |
P
9.3
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
1.8pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1 |
23.9%Palantir | 22.9%market | +1.0pp |
P
23.9
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
2.1pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 320 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 1 |
18.1%Palantir | 17.2%market | +0.9pp |
P
18.1
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
2.6pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4 |
18.1%Palantir | 17.2%market | +0.9pp |
P
18.1
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
2.3pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 4 |
17.1%Palantir | 16.2%market | +0.9pp |
P
17.1
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
1.6pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Matt Wallner
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2 |
19.8%Palantir | 19.0%market | +0.8pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.9pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 405 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Daulton Varsho
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4 |
17.2%Palantir | 16.7%market | +0.5pp |
P
17.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.0pp | 1.078xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5 |
14.9%Palantir | 15.8%market | -0.8pp |
P
14.9
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.7pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 51 | Lineup pending | SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2 |
19.3%Palantir | 20.2%market | -0.9pp |
P
19.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
5.1pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 395 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1 |
16.8%Palantir | 18.4%market | -1.5pp |
P
16.8
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
3.3pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3 |
19.4%Palantir | 21.1%market | -1.6pp |
P
19.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.5pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3 |
14.3%Palantir | 16.0%market | -1.7pp |
P
14.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.9pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Corey Seager
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 2 |
20.7%Palantir | 22.5%market | -1.8pp |
P
20.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.8pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 345 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1 |
17.2%Palantir | 19.4%market | -2.2pp |
P
17.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.0pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Matt Olson
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2 |
18.7%Palantir | 21.7%market | -3.1pp |
P
18.7
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
3.2pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Austin Riley
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4 |
13.9%Palantir | 17.0%market | -3.1pp |
P
13.9
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
0.3pp | 1.021xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 59 | Lineup pending | NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4 |
18.9%Palantir | 22.2%market | -3.4pp |
P
18.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.0pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 350 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Tyler O'Neill
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3 |
13.8%Palantir | 17.7%market | -3.9pp |
P
13.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.4pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Jake Burger
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4 |
15.3%Palantir | 19.2%market | -4.0pp |
P
15.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.0pp | 1.160xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3 |
20.7%Palantir | 26.0%market | -5.3pp |
P
20.7
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.8pp | 1.177xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 285 avg 3 books |
| 63 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2 |
17.1%Palantir | 23.0%market | -5.8pp |
P
17.1
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.9pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 335 avg 3 books |
| 64 |
Aaron Judge
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2 |
22.0%Palantir | 29.8%market | -7.9pp |
P
22.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.0pp | 1.185xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 235 avg 3 books |
| 65 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 3 |
18.2%Palantir | 26.3%market | -8.1pp |
P
18.2
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
4.8pp | 0.905xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 280 avg 3 books |
Data context
0 sample flagsStatus775roster/transaction rows
Lineups18confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.