Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-06-18 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3	26.0%Valinor	11.7%market	+10.2pp	P 23.9 F 26.0 V 26.0	2.0pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
02	Alec Bohm PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5	17.2%Valinor	11.1%market	+10.0pp	P 18.1 F 17.2 V 17.2	0.8pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 775 avg 3 books
03	Trea Turner PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1	17.9%Valinor	14.7%market	+9.2pp	P 23.3 F 17.9 V 17.9	5.4pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
04	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 5	17.9%Valinor	11.7%market	+8.7pp	P 20.2 F 17.9 V 17.9	2.2pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
05	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5	14.2%Valinor	13.2%market	+8.3pp	P 17.8 F 14.2 V 14.2	3.6pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
06	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1	17.9%Valinor	14.4%market	+7.9pp	P 24.0 F 17.9 V 17.9	6.1pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
07	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4	17.9%Valinor	11.7%market	+7.8pp	P 18.9 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.0pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
08	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6	19.6%Valinor	11.0%market	+7.4pp	P 23.1 F 19.6 V 19.6	3.5pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
09	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3	23.4%Valinor	15.6%market	+7.4pp	P 24.0 F 23.4 V 23.4	0.6pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
10	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4	17.9%Valinor	14.8%market	+6.4pp	P 20.3 F 17.9 V 17.9	2.4pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
11	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6	2.8%Valinor	11.6%market	+6.3pp	P 15.4 F 2.8 V 2.8	12.6pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 730 avg 3 books
12	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3	17.9%Valinor	16.9%market	+6.1pp	P 24.9 F 17.9 V 17.9	7.0pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
13	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 7	17.9%Valinor	11.9%market	+6.0pp	P 18.4 F 17.9 V 17.9	0.5pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
14	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 6	13.4%Valinor	9.8%market	+6.0pp	P 13.6 F 13.4 V 13.4	0.2pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
15	Nathan Lukes TOR IN	TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6	17.9%Valinor	9.1%market	+6.0pp	P 18.8 F 17.9 V 17.9	0.9pp	1.078xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
16	Ramón Urías STL Lineup pending	STL vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5	15.7%Valinor	10.4%market	+6.0pp	P 16.1 F 15.7 V 15.7	0.3pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
17	Jesús Sánchez TOR IN	TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5	17.9%Valinor	12.3%market	+5.8pp	P 16.6 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.4pp	1.078xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
18	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5	17.9%Valinor	13.7%market	+5.5pp	P 22.1 F 17.9 V 17.9	4.2pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
19	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5	17.9%Valinor	14.1%market	+5.5pp	P 16.5 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.4pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
20	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4	19.6%Valinor	16.2%market	+5.1pp	P 21.6 F 19.6 V 19.6	2.0pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
21	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6	14.2%Valinor	7.7%market	+5.1pp	P 13.3 F 14.2 V 14.2	0.9pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
22	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	18.5%market	+4.9pp	P 23.8 F 17.9 V 17.9	5.9pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
23	Adolis García PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4	17.9%Valinor	17.8%market	+4.5pp	P 19.9 F 17.9 V 17.9	2.0pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
24	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5	14.2%Valinor	13.5%market	+4.5pp	P 15.8 F 14.2 V 14.2	1.6pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
25	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1	11.1%Valinor	7.7%market	+4.4pp	P 11.0 F 11.1 V 11.1	0.1pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
26	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3	17.9%Valinor	15.9%market	+4.2pp	P 19.7 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.8pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
27	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1	9.1%Valinor	10.5%market	+4.1pp	P 16.1 F 9.1 V 9.1	7.0pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
28	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	13.1%market	+4.0pp	P 23.4 F 17.9 V 17.9	5.5pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
29	Bryce Harper PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	18.0%market	+3.9pp	P 22.7 F 17.9 V 17.9	4.8pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
30	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5	13.4%Valinor	13.3%market	+3.8pp	P 13.7 F 13.4 V 13.4	0.4pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
31	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 6	14.2%Valinor	9.8%market	+3.8pp	P 12.0 F 14.2 V 14.2	2.2pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
32	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5	11.4%Valinor	11.9%market	+3.7pp	P 12.7 F 11.4 V 11.4	1.2pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
33	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6	26.0%Valinor	15.5%market	+3.6pp	P 20.5 F 26.0 V 26.0	5.4pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
34	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5	17.9%Valinor	18.1%market	+3.3pp	P 22.7 F 17.9 V 17.9	4.8pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
35	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6	15.7%Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P 16.5 F 15.7 V 15.7	0.7pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
36	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1	17.2%Valinor	17.3%market	+3.0pp	P 20.4 F 17.2 V 17.2	3.2pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
37	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR IN	TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	16.2%market	+2.8pp	P 18.7 F 17.9 V 17.9	0.8pp	1.078xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
38	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4	17.2%Valinor	17.3%market	+2.6pp	P 21.5 F 17.2 V 17.2	4.3pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
39	George Springer TOR IN	TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1	17.2%Valinor	16.7%market	+2.2pp	P 20.3 F 17.2 V 17.2	3.1pp	1.078xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
40	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5	14.2%Valinor	15.0%market	+2.0pp	P 14.9 F 14.2 V 14.2	0.7pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
41	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 5	15.5%Valinor	13.8%market	+1.9pp	P 17.4 F 15.5 V 15.5	1.9pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
42	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	21.4%market	+1.3pp	P 20.7 F 17.9 V 17.9	2.8pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
43	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3	17.9%Valinor	16.0%market	+1.2pp	P 19.8 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.9pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
44	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4	14.2%Valinor	16.7%market	+1.2pp	P 17.2 F 14.2 V 14.2	3.0pp	1.078xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
45	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1	13.6%Valinor	17.3%market	+1.1pp	P 16.8 F 13.6 V 13.6	3.3pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
46	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 4	15.5%Valinor	16.2%market	+1.0pp	P 17.1 F 15.5 V 15.5	1.6pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
47	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1	26.0%Valinor	22.9%market	+0.9pp	P 23.9 F 26.0 V 26.0	2.1pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 320 avg 3 books
48	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4	17.2%Valinor	17.8%market	+0.9pp	P 19.4 F 17.2 V 17.2	2.2pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
49	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4	14.2%Valinor	18.3%market	+0.9pp	P 15.3 F 14.2 V 14.2	1.0pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 425 avg 3 books
50	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3	17.2%Valinor	15.3%market	+0.8pp	P 14.3 F 17.2 V 17.2	2.9pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
51	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1	11.1%Valinor	7.7%market	+0.7pp	P 9.3 F 11.1 V 11.1	1.8pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4	13.6%Valinor	16.2%market	+0.5pp	P 13.9 F 13.6 V 13.6	0.3pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
53	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	19.0%market	+0.3pp	P 19.8 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.9pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 405 avg 3 books
54	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2	14.2%Valinor	19.2%market	+0.2pp	P 19.3 F 14.2 V 14.2	5.1pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
55	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 1	15.5%Valinor	17.5%market	-0.3pp	P 18.1 F 15.5 V 15.5	2.6pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
56	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4	15.7%Valinor	17.4%market	-0.9pp	P 18.1 F 15.7 V 15.7	2.3pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
57	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1	14.2%Valinor	18.8%market	-1.6pp	P 17.2 F 14.2 V 14.2	3.0pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
58	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3	17.9%Valinor	20.5%market	-1.7pp	P 19.4 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.5pp	1.160xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
59	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2	15.5%Valinor	21.7%market	-1.7pp	P 18.7 F 15.5 V 15.5	3.2pp	1.021xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
60	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4	17.9%Valinor	22.2%market	-2.5pp	P 18.9 F 17.9 V 17.9	1.0pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 350 avg 3 books
61	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3	14.2%Valinor	17.7%market	-2.9pp	P 13.8 F 14.2 V 14.2	0.4pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
62	Kyle Schwarber PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3	17.9%Valinor	26.0%market	-4.2pp	P 20.7 F 17.9 V 17.9	2.8pp	1.177xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
63	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2	14.2%Valinor	23.0%market	-5.1pp	P 17.1 F 14.2 V 14.2	2.9pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
64	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2	17.9%Valinor	29.8%market	-6.6pp	P 22.0 F 17.9 V 17.9	4.0pp	1.185xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
65	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BALShane Baz · slot 3	13.4%Valinor	26.3%market	-7.8pp	P 18.2 F 13.4 V 13.4	4.8pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Trea TurnerPHI vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Bo BichetteNYM vs PHI · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Alec BohmPHI vs NYM · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Francisco LindorNYM vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Brandon NimmoTEX vs MIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status775roster/transaction rows

Lineups18confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.