Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
81
Matched
288
Lineups
198
HR BOARD 2026-07-09 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 9.3%market +7.3pp
P 16.9
F 16.6
V 11.2
5.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 7
14.9%Fangorn 8.5%market +6.4pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 9.9
5.0pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 7
16.3%Fangorn 10.4%market +5.9pp
P 14.7
F 16.3
V 13.8
2.5pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
04 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
14.5%Fangorn 8.7%market +5.8pp
P 11.2
F 14.5
V 13.4
3.4pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
16.6%Fangorn 11.0%market +5.7pp
P 14.8
F 16.6
V 12.6
4.0pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06 IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
15.6%Fangorn 10.0%market +5.6pp
P 14.3
F 15.6
V 10.6
5.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 7
14.5%Fangorn 9.6%market +4.9pp
P 12.2
F 14.5
V 10.4
4.2pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
08 IN
MIA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 10.1%market +4.8pp
P 13.5
F 14.9
V 13.5
1.5pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
09
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
21.1%Fangorn 16.3%market +4.8pp
P 21.0
F 21.1
V 13.2
7.9pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
10 IN
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
16.3%Fangorn 11.7%market +4.6pp
P 15.8
F 16.3
V 10.9
5.4pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 10.7%market +4.2pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 13.3
1.6pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
12 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +3.6pp
P 16.2
F 16.6
V 13.2
3.5pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
13 IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
15.5%Fangorn 11.9%market +3.6pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 10.9
4.6pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
16.3%Fangorn 13.1%market +3.2pp
P 16.8
F 16.3
V 12.1
4.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
15
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +3.2pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
16 IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 6
16.6%Fangorn 13.6%market +3.0pp
P 17.9
F 16.6
V 12.2
5.7pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
17 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 11.9%market +3.0pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 13.8
1.1pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
18
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 13.4%market +2.9pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
19 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
16.3%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.8pp
P 15.3
F 16.3
V 14.6
1.6pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
20 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
13.3%Fangorn 10.6%market +2.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 12.5
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
21 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
15.6%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.6pp
P 14.9
F 15.6
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
22 IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +2.4pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 12.3
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
23 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 14.4%market +2.3pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.5
4.0pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
24
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 14.8%market +1.8pp
P 18.9
F 16.6
V 13.7
5.1pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
25 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 15.0%market +1.6pp
P 20.1
F 16.6
V 14.3
5.8pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
26 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.5pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 13.7
2.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
27 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.5pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 16.8
2.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
28 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
15.6%Fangorn 14.1%market +1.5pp
P 18.2
F 15.6
V 15.1
3.0pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
29 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
16.6%Fangorn 15.2%market +1.4pp
P 15.4
F 16.6
V 12.8
3.8pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
30 IN
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
14.6%Fangorn 13.3%market +1.4pp
P 12.9
F 14.6
V 19.1
6.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
31 IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
16.3%Fangorn 15.1%market +1.2pp
P 16.9
F 16.3
V 14.4
2.5pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 5
14.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +1.0pp
P 13.3
F 14.5
V 12.6
1.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
33
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 14.8%market +0.7pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 13.4
2.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
34 IN
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -1.1pp
P 20.9
F 16.6
V 14.8
6.1pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
35 IN
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
16.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.1pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 20.7
4.4pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
36 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -2.1pp
P 20.7
F 16.6
V 15.0
5.6pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
37 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 17.2%market -2.3pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 13.1
1.9pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
38 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
14.9%Fangorn 17.4%market -2.5pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.6pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.5pp
P 16.2
F 13.7
V 13.6
2.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
40 IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
13.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +6.0pp
P 9.8
F 13.7
V 12.3
3.9pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
13.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.6pp
P 7.6
F 13.3
V 13.0
5.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 7.9
F 12.8
V 11.9
4.8pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7
12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 8.1
F 12.8
V 9.8
4.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
MIA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 6.8
F 12.8
V 11.8
6.0pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
21.1%Fangorn 18.3%market +2.8pp
P 20.3
F 21.1
V 12.9
8.2pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 425 avg 3 books
46 IN
SEA vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 13.8%market +1.7pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 12.7
3.3pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
47
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
16.6%Fangorn 15.5%market +1.1pp
P 16.7
F 16.6
V 13.3
3.4pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
17.5%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.0pp
P 19.8
F 17.5
V 13.0
6.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
49 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
16.3%Fangorn 15.3%market +1.0pp
P 13.2
F 16.3
V 16.3
3.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
MIA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 14.0%market +0.9pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 16.0%market +0.6pp
P 18.9
F 16.6
V 20.3
3.7pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 16.2%market +0.5pp
P 16.3
F 16.6
V 13.8
2.9pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
53 IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
10.2%Fangorn 11.0%market -0.8pp
P 10.0
F 10.2
V 13.3
3.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
16.3%Fangorn 17.2%market -0.9pp
P 16.9
F 16.3
V 13.5
3.4pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
55 IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
14.5%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.2pp
P 11.2
F 14.5
V 13.6
3.3pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
56 IN
SEA vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.5pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 13.1
2.6pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -1.7pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 13.1
6.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
58 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 17.5%market -2.0pp
P 17.3
F 15.5
V 15.2
2.1pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
59 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
14.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.3pp
P 12.8
F 14.6
V 16.9
4.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
60 IN
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 18.7%market -2.4pp
P 18.5
F 16.3
V 21.0
4.7pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
61 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 19.1%market -2.4pp
P 16.5
F 16.6
V 14.5
2.1pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
62 IN
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
16.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -2.6pp
P 18.6
F 16.6
V 15.7
3.0pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 13.4
3.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
64 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
16.6%Fangorn 19.6%market -3.0pp
P 20.3
F 16.6
V 15.0
5.3pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
65
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 19.6%market -3.0pp
P 18.0
F 16.6
V 12.5
5.5pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.4pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
15.6%Fangorn 19.4%market -3.8pp
P 18.2
F 15.6
V 14.0
4.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
68 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
16.3%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.1pp
P 18.1
F 16.3
V 13.9
4.2pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
69 IN
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 6
4.8%Fangorn 9.5%market -4.7pp
P 9.9
F 4.8
V 10.5
5.6pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 2
16.3%Fangorn 21.1%market -4.8pp
P 17.8
F 16.3
V 14.1
3.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
16.6%Fangorn 22.2%market -5.6pp
P 15.7
F 16.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 350 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.9pp
P 17.1
F 14.9
V 13.6
3.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 IN Triple
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.2pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 17.4
1.9pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
14.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -6.4pp
P 15.0
F 14.6
V 14.5
0.5pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
75 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
15.6%Fangorn 22.5%market -6.9pp
P 17.6
F 15.6
V 14.9
2.6pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
76 IN
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -7.1pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 13.4
3.1pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
77
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
16.6%Fangorn 24.1%market -7.5pp
P 17.6
F 16.6
V 13.3
4.3pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
78 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
15.6%Fangorn 23.8%market -8.2pp
P 19.3
F 15.6
V 15.0
4.3pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
79 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
16.6%Fangorn 27.0%market -10.4pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.9
3.5pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
80 IN
SEA vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
14.5%Fangorn 26.3%market -11.9pp
P 16.6
F 14.5
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
81 IN Triple
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 26.0%market -12.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 13.4
1.4pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1674roster/transaction rows
Lineups198confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.