Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
81
Matched
288
Lineups
198
HR BOARD 2026-07-09 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
19.1%Valinor 13.3%market +5.3pp
P 12.9
F 14.6
V 19.1
6.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
02 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
13.4%Valinor 8.7%market +4.3pp
P 11.2
F 14.5
V 13.4
3.4pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 7
13.8%Valinor 10.4%market +3.0pp
P 14.7
F 16.3
V 13.8
2.5pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 830 avg 3 books
04 IN
MIA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
13.5%Valinor 10.1%market +3.0pp
P 13.5
F 14.9
V 13.5
1.5pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
16.8%Valinor 13.5%market +2.8pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 16.8
2.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06 IN
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
20.7%Valinor 17.3%market +2.7pp
P 19.5
F 16.3
V 20.7
4.4pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
13.3%Valinor 10.7%market +2.3pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 13.3
1.6pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
08 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
12.5%Valinor 10.6%market +1.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 12.5
1.3pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 3
11.2%Valinor 9.3%market +1.5pp
P 16.9
F 16.6
V 11.2
5.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
10 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 11.9%market +1.4pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 13.8
1.1pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
11
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
13.4%Valinor 11.7%market +1.3pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
12.6%Valinor 11.0%market +1.2pp
P 14.8
F 16.6
V 12.6
4.0pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
13 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 7
9.9%Valinor 8.5%market +1.1pp
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 9.9
5.0pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
14
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
14.7%Valinor 13.4%market +0.8pp
P 16.4
F 16.3
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
15 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
14.6%Valinor 13.5%market +0.7pp
P 15.3
F 16.3
V 14.6
1.6pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
16 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
14.0%Valinor 13.0%market +0.5pp
P 14.9
F 15.6
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
17 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
15.1%Valinor 14.1%market +0.4pp
P 18.2
F 15.6
V 15.1
3.0pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 7
10.4%Valinor 9.6%market +0.4pp
P 12.2
F 14.5
V 10.4
4.2pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
19 IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
10.6%Valinor 10.0%market +0.3pp
P 14.3
F 15.6
V 10.6
5.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
20 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
13.7%Valinor 13.6%market -0.4pp
P 15.8
F 14.9
V 13.7
2.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
21 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
13.2%Valinor 13.6%market -0.4pp
P 16.2
F 16.6
V 13.2
3.5pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
22 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4
14.5%Valinor 14.5%market -0.6pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.5
4.0pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
23 IN
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
12.3%Valinor 12.5%market -0.7pp
P 13.9
F 14.9
V 12.3
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
24 IN
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
10.9%Valinor 11.7%market -1.3pp
P 15.8
F 16.3
V 10.9
5.4pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
25 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
14.3%Valinor 15.2%market -1.4pp
P 20.1
F 16.6
V 14.3
5.8pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
26 IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
14.4%Valinor 15.3%market -1.5pp
P 16.9
F 16.3
V 14.4
2.5pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 5
12.6%Valinor 13.7%market -1.6pp
P 13.3
F 14.5
V 12.6
1.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
28 IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
10.9%Valinor 12.5%market -1.6pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 10.9
4.6pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
12.1%Valinor 13.2%market -1.6pp
P 16.8
F 16.3
V 12.1
4.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
30
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
13.7%Valinor 15.0%market -1.8pp
P 18.9
F 16.6
V 13.7
5.1pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
31 IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 6
12.2%Valinor 13.8%market -2.1pp
P 17.9
F 16.6
V 12.2
5.7pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
32
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 15.0%market -2.1pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 13.4
2.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
33 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
14.8%Valinor 16.8%market -2.6pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 14.8
1.6pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
13.6%Valinor 15.7%market -2.6pp
P 16.2
F 13.7
V 13.6
2.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
35 IN
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
14.8%Valinor 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 20.9
F 16.6
V 14.8
6.1pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
36 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 15.4
F 16.6
V 12.8
3.8pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
37 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 4
15.0%Valinor 18.2%market -3.8pp
P 20.7
F 16.6
V 15.0
5.6pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
38
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 16.7%market -4.0pp
P 21.0
F 21.1
V 13.2
7.9pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
39 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
13.1%Valinor 16.8%market -4.3pp
P 15.0
F 14.9
V 13.1
1.9pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
40 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
14.9%Valinor 26.5%market -12.5pp
P 18.5
F 16.6
V 14.9
3.5pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
41 IN
SEA vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
13.7%Valinor 25.8%market -12.9pp
P 16.6
F 14.5
V 13.7
2.8pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
42 IN Triple
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 25.4%market -13.0pp
P 14.8
F 13.6
V 13.4
1.4pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
13.0%Valinor 7.7%market +5.0pp
P 7.6
F 13.3
V 13.0
5.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
CHC vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
12.3%Valinor 7.7%market +4.3pp
P 9.8
F 13.7
V 12.3
3.9pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
11.9%Valinor 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 7.9
F 12.8
V 11.9
4.8pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
MIA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
11.8%Valinor 7.7%market +3.8pp
P 6.8
F 12.8
V 11.8
6.0pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
20.3%Valinor 16.0%market +3.6pp
P 18.9
F 16.6
V 20.3
3.7pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
48 IN
KC vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
21.0%Valinor 17.8%market +2.5pp
P 18.5
F 16.3
V 21.0
4.7pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
49 IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
13.3%Valinor 10.5%market +2.4pp
P 10.0
F 10.2
V 13.3
3.2pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7
9.8%Valinor 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 8.1
F 12.8
V 9.8
4.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51 IN
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 6
10.5%Valinor 9.1%market +1.1pp
P 9.9
F 4.8
V 10.5
5.6pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
52 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
16.3%Valinor 15.3%market +0.4pp
P 13.2
F 16.3
V 16.3
3.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
53 IN
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
16.9%Valinor 16.2%market +0.1pp
P 12.8
F 14.6
V 16.9
4.1pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
MIA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 14.2%market -1.3pp
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 13.4
1.5pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
55 IN
SEA vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 5
12.7%Valinor 14.0%market -1.8pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 12.7
3.3pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
56 IN
MIN vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
13.6%Valinor 15.2%market -2.2pp
P 11.2
F 14.5
V 13.6
3.3pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
57 IN
CLE vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
15.2%Valinor 17.1%market -2.5pp
P 17.3
F 15.5
V 15.2
2.1pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
58
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
13.3%Valinor 15.7%market -3.0pp
P 16.7
F 16.6
V 13.3
3.4pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
13.8%Valinor 16.5%market -3.3pp
P 16.3
F 16.6
V 13.8
2.9pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
60 IN
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 18.6%market -3.6pp
P 18.6
F 16.6
V 15.7
3.0pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 16.7%market -3.7pp
P 16.9
F 16.3
V 13.5
3.4pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
62 IN
SEA vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
13.1%Valinor 16.4%market -3.8pp
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 13.1
2.6pp 0.955xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
MIL vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
13.0%Valinor 16.7%market -4.2pp
P 19.8
F 17.5
V 13.0
6.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 17.1%market -4.3pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 13.4
3.2pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
65 IN Triple
ATL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
17.4%Valinor 21.2%market -4.6pp
P 17.4
F 15.5
V 17.4
1.9pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
66 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
14.5%Valinor 18.6%market -4.7pp
P 16.5
F 16.6
V 14.5
2.1pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
67 IN
PHI vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 19.1%market -4.8pp
P 20.3
F 16.6
V 15.0
5.3pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
SD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
14.2%Valinor 18.4%market -4.8pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 1
13.1%Valinor 17.9%market -5.4pp
P 19.7
F 16.6
V 13.1
6.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
14.0%Valinor 18.9%market -5.6pp
P 18.2
F 15.6
V 14.0
4.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
71 IN
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 18.8%market -6.5pp
P 20.3
F 21.1
V 12.9
8.2pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
72 IN
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 19.9%market -6.7pp
P 18.1
F 16.3
V 13.9
4.2pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
PIT vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
14.5%Valinor 20.5%market -6.8pp
P 15.0
F 14.6
V 14.5
0.5pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
AZ vs SDGriffin Canning · slot 2
14.1%Valinor 20.5%market -7.2pp
P 17.8
F 16.3
V 14.1
3.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
75
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
12.5%Valinor 19.1%market -7.3pp
P 18.0
F 16.6
V 12.5
5.5pp 1.221xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
SF vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
13.6%Valinor 20.3%market -7.5pp
P 17.1
F 14.9
V 13.6
3.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
77 IN
CIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
14.9%Valinor 22.0%market -7.8pp
P 17.6
F 15.6
V 14.9
2.6pp 1.102xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
NYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 21.7%market -7.9pp
P 15.7
F 16.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.141xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 345 avg 3 books
79 IN
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 21.5%market -8.8pp
P 16.5
F 14.9
V 13.4
3.1pp 1.009xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
80 IN
BAL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 23.3%market -9.1pp
P 19.3
F 15.6
V 15.0
4.3pp 1.167xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
81
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
13.3%Valinor 23.6%market -11.1pp
P 17.6
F 16.6
V 13.3
4.3pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status1674roster/transaction rows
Lineups198confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.