Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
17
Matched
51
Lineups
18
HR BOARD 2026-07-14 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Cj Abrams NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 4
 13.0%Valinor 14.0%market -1.0pp
P 16.9
F 15.3
V 13.0
3.8pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
02
Brandon Marsh NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 7
 10.3%Valinor 11.8%market -2.0pp
P 13.6
F 15.1
V 10.3
4.7pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
03
Ozzie Albies NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 6
 11.8%Valinor 13.3%market -2.0pp
P 13.5
F 13.8
V 11.8
2.0pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
04
Freddie Freeman NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 3
 14.0%Valinor 16.2%market -2.9pp
P 17.4
F 15.1
V 14.0
3.4pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
05
Junior Caminero AL
IN Triple
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 14.7%Valinor 24.1%market -10.3pp
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.7
1.4pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 300 avg 3 books
06
Kyle Schwarber NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 1
 14.1%Valinor 27.6%market -14.5pp
P 16.2
F 15.1
V 14.1
2.1pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 250 avg 3 books
07
Bobby Witt Jr. AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 16.7%market -2.7pp
P 15.6
F 14.0
V 14.5
1.6pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
08
Cody Bellinger AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 6
 12.8%Valinor 16.2%market -4.0pp
P 15.6
F 14.0
V 12.8
2.7pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
09
Ben Rice AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 7
 12.4%Valinor 17.1%market -5.3pp
P 14.5
F 15.3
V 12.4
2.9pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
10
Andy Pages NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 8
 9.4%Valinor 14.2%market -5.3pp
P 15.0
F 13.7
V 9.4
5.6pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
11
Riley Greene AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 8
 10.3%Valinor 16.5%market -6.8pp
P 15.0
F 14.5
V 10.3
4.8pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
12
Mike Trout AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 14.8%Valinor 21.2%market -7.2pp
P 17.8
F 15.9
V 14.8
3.0pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
13
Drake Baldwin NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 9
 8.7%Valinor 15.3%market -7.2pp
P 12.4
F 14.5
V 8.7
5.9pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
14
Max Muncy NL
IN Triple
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 20.8%market -7.4pp
P 14.5
F 14.0
V 14.1
0.5pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
15
Yordan Alvarez AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 14.8%Valinor 21.5%market -7.4pp
P 14.5
F 14.5
V 14.8
0.3pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
16
Shea Langeliers AL
IN
AL vs NLCristopher Sánchez · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 22.4%market -8.4pp
P 16.2
F 14.0
V 14.8
2.2pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
17
Juan Soto NL
IN
NL vs ALDylan Cease · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 23.3%market -10.0pp
P 16.2
F 15.3
V 14.1
2.1pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 315 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

775 sample flags
Status1654roster/transaction rows
Lineups18confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.