Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
51
Matched
204
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-07-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 15.5%Palantir 11.1%market +4.4pp
P 15.5
F 10.9
V 8.7
6.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
 16.7%Palantir 12.5%market +4.3pp
P 16.7
F 14.2
V 15.7
2.6pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
03
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 16.3%Palantir 13.9%market +2.3pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 12.2
4.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
04
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 6
 10.0%Palantir 7.7%market +2.3pp
P 10.0
F 13.9
V 7.5
6.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 5
 15.8%Palantir 13.7%market +2.1pp
P 15.8
F 14.2
V 12.5
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
06
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
 13.5%Palantir 11.7%market +1.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 9.8
4.0pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
07
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
 14.9%Palantir 13.3%market +1.6pp
P 14.9
F 14.2
V 16.1
1.9pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
08
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 13.5%Palantir 12.4%market +1.1pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 11.4
2.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
09
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 11.8%Palantir 10.9%market +0.9pp
P 11.8
F 9.5
V 13.0
3.6pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
10
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6
 8.5%Palantir 7.7%market +0.8pp
P 8.5
F 12.1
V 8.4
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
11
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4
 12.4%Palantir 11.7%market +0.7pp
P 12.4
F 13.9
V 8.9
4.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
 14.8%Palantir 15.4%market -0.5pp
P 14.8
F 14.2
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
13
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6
 12.3%Palantir 12.9%market -0.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 11.6
1.6pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
14
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
 13.5%Palantir 14.1%market -0.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 11.9
2.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
15
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5
 9.7%Palantir 10.3%market -0.6pp
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 8.4
4.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
16
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 12.7%Palantir 13.6%market -0.9pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 10.0
3.1pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
17
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 14.1%market -1.1pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 15.9
3.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
18
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 15.5%market -1.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 13.0
1.4pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
19
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
 15.3%Palantir 17.0%market -1.7pp
P 15.3
F 13.9
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
20
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 16.0%Palantir 18.0%market -2.1pp
P 16.0
F 14.2
V 20.4
6.2pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
21
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 10.9%Palantir 13.0%market -2.1pp
P 10.9
F 12.4
V 19.3
8.4pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
22
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 12.0%Palantir 15.3%market -3.2pp
P 12.0
F 13.1
V 13.3
1.3pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
23
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 10.5%Palantir 13.8%market -3.3pp
P 10.5
F 10.9
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
24
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 16.7%market -4.6pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
2.6pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
25
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
 15.5%Palantir 14.0%market +1.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.2
V 12.5
3.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
26
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 16.0%Palantir 17.4%market -1.4pp
P 16.0
F 16.4
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
27
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
 14.0%Palantir 15.6%market -1.6pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 12.9
1.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
28
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
 7.5%Palantir 9.2%market -1.7pp
P 7.5
F 0.0
V 8.5
8.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
29
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 1
 6.3%Palantir 8.0%market -1.7pp
P 6.3
F 10.3
V 9.8
4.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
30
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 5.8%Palantir 8.0%market -2.2pp
P 5.8
F 9.5
V 12.1
6.3pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
31
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 5.7%Palantir 8.0%market -2.3pp
P 5.7
F 9.5
V 11.6
5.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
32
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 13.5%Palantir 16.1%market -2.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.1
V 12.7
0.8pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
33
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 4
 15.4%Palantir 18.4%market -2.9pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 13.6
1.8pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
34
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 13.1%Palantir 16.3%market -3.1pp
P 13.1
F 14.2
V 12.0
2.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
35
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 15.4%Palantir 18.7%market -3.3pp
P 15.4
F 14.2
V 13.5
2.0pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
36
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
 14.4%Palantir 17.9%market -3.4pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 13.1
1.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
37
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
 11.6%Palantir 15.3%market -3.6pp
P 11.6
F 10.7
V 13.0
2.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
38
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 17.1%market -3.8pp
P 13.3
F 14.2
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
39
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
 11.6%Palantir 16.0%market -4.4pp
P 11.6
F 14.2
V 14.8
3.2pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
40
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 14.7%Palantir 19.2%market -4.5pp
P 14.7
F 14.2
V 15.9
1.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
41
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
 14.8%Palantir 19.4%market -4.6pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.6pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
42
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 19.1%market -5.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.1
V 14.3
1.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
43
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 19.4%market -5.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 16.9
3.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
44
Austin Riley ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 11.3%Palantir 17.0%market -5.6pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 15.8
4.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
45
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
 13.7%Palantir 19.6%market -5.9pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
46
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 20.2%market -6.3pp
P 13.9
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.1pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
47
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
 11.8%Palantir 18.4%market -6.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.4
V 13.8
2.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
48
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 15.2%Palantir 21.7%market -6.6pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 16.5
2.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
49
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
 11.0%Palantir 19.2%market -8.2pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 11.3
1.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
50
Nick Kurtz ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 27.0%market -13.5pp
P 13.6
F 10.9
V 13.9
2.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
51
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
 13.9%Palantir 29.8%market -15.9pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 18.6
4.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2413roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.