Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
51
Matched
204
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-07-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +6.2pp
P 10.0
F 13.9
V 7.5
6.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6
 12.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.4pp
P 8.5
F 12.1
V 8.4
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.6pp
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 8.4
4.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
04
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.2pp
P 12.4
F 13.9
V 8.9
4.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
05
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.2pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 9.8
4.0pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
06
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.7pp
P 16.7
F 14.2
V 15.7
2.6pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
07
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 12.4%market +1.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 11.4
2.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
08
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.9pp
P 14.9
F 14.2
V 16.1
1.9pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
09
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 12.4%market +0.8pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 11.6
1.6pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
10
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 13.7%market +0.4pp
P 15.8
F 14.2
V 12.5
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
11
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 13.5%market +0.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.9
V 11.9
2.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
12
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 14.6%market -0.4pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 12.2
4.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
13
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 13.6%market -0.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 10.0
3.1pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
14
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 10.9
F 12.4
V 19.3
8.4pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
15
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3
 10.9%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.7pp
P 15.5
F 10.9
V 8.7
6.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
16
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 15.4%market -1.2pp
P 14.8
F 14.2
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
17
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 13.0
1.4pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
18
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 15.9
3.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
19
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 9.5%Fangorn 11.4%market -2.0pp
P 11.8
F 9.5
V 13.0
3.6pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
20
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 13.1%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.2pp
P 12.0
F 13.1
V 13.3
1.3pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
21
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 10.9%Fangorn 13.8%market -2.9pp
P 10.5
F 10.9
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
22
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 15.3
F 13.9
V 12.9
2.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
23
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.5pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
2.6pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
24
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -3.8pp
P 16.0
F 14.2
V 20.4
6.2pp 1.150xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
25
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 1
 10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 6.3
F 10.3
V 9.8
4.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
26
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 9.5%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 5.7
F 9.5
V 11.6
5.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 9.5%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 5.8
F 9.5
V 12.1
6.3pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 14.7%market -0.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.2
V 12.5
3.0pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
29
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 16.4%Fangorn 17.4%market -0.9pp
P 16.0
F 16.4
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
30
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 15.6%market -1.4pp
P 14.0
F 14.2
V 12.9
1.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
31
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -1.8pp
P 11.6
F 14.2
V 14.8
3.2pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
32
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 14.2%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.1pp
P 13.1
F 14.2
V 12.0
2.2pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
33
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 17.1%market -2.9pp
P 13.3
F 14.2
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
34
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 13.1%Fangorn 16.1%market -3.1pp
P 13.5
F 13.1
V 12.7
0.8pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
35
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 17.9%market -3.7pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 13.1
1.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
36
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 13.6
1.8pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
37
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.5pp
P 15.4
F 14.2
V 13.5
2.0pp 1.072xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
38
Austin Riley ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 15.8
4.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
39
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3
 10.7%Fangorn 15.3%market -4.6pp
P 11.6
F 10.7
V 13.0
2.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
40
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.0pp
P 14.7
F 14.2
V 15.9
1.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
41
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -5.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.9
V 16.9
3.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
42
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.9pp
P 11.8
F 12.4
V 13.8
2.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
 13.1%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.1
V 14.3
1.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
44
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.6pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
45
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.0pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
46
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
 12.1%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.2pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 11.3
1.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
47
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 20.2%market -7.8pp
P 13.9
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.1pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
48
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -7.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.9
V 16.5
2.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
49
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
 0.0%Fangorn 9.2%market -9.2pp
P 7.5
F 0.0
V 8.5
8.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
50
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 29.8%market -15.7pp
P 13.9
F 14.2
V 18.6
4.7pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
51
Nick Kurtz ATH
IN
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
 10.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -16.1pp
P 13.6
F 10.9
V 13.9
2.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2413roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.