Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Lane Thomas
KC
Lineup pending
|
KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5 |
19.3%Valinor | 12.5%market | +6.3pp |
P
10.9
F
12.4
V
19.3
|
8.4pp | 1.150xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Iván Herrera
STL
IN
|
STL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2 |
15.7%Valinor | 12.5%market | +2.7pp |
P
16.7
F
14.2
V
15.7
|
2.6pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 03 | IN | KC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4 |
20.4%Valinor | 17.2%market | +2.6pp |
P
16.0
F
14.2
V
20.4
|
6.2pp | 1.150xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 460 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Alec Burleson
STL
IN
|
STL vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3 |
16.1%Valinor | 13.3%market | +2.3pp |
P
14.9
F
14.2
V
16.1
|
1.9pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5 |
15.9%Valinor | 13.5%market | +1.9pp |
P
13.0
F
12.4
V
15.9
|
3.5pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1 |
13.0%Valinor | 10.9%market | +1.7pp |
P
11.8
F
9.5
V
13.0
|
3.6pp | 1.150xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 785 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6 |
8.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.4pp |
P
8.5
F
12.1
V
8.4
|
3.6pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 6 |
7.5%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.5pp |
P
10.0
F
13.9
V
7.5
|
6.4pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Ryan Jeffers
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 6 |
11.6%Valinor | 12.4%market | -1.3pp |
P
12.3
F
13.2
V
11.6
|
1.6pp | 1.150xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4 |
11.4%Valinor | 13.0%market | -1.6pp |
P
13.5
F
13.9
V
11.4
|
2.5pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4 |
13.7%Valinor | 14.9%market | -1.7pp |
P
14.8
F
14.2
V
13.7
|
1.2pp | 1.150xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 550 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
IN
|
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 5 |
12.5%Valinor | 13.7%market | -1.8pp |
P
15.8
F
14.2
V
12.5
|
3.3pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 600 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.8pp |
P
10.5
F
10.9
V
12.0
|
1.5pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 625 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5 |
13.3%Valinor | 14.8%market | -1.9pp |
P
12.0
F
13.1
V
13.3
|
1.3pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5 |
8.4%Valinor | 10.0%market | -2.0pp |
P
9.7
F
12.4
V
8.4
|
4.0pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 865 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6 |
11.9%Valinor | 13.6%market | -2.2pp |
P
13.5
F
13.9
V
11.9
|
2.0pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3 |
9.8%Valinor | 11.7%market | -2.4pp |
P
13.5
F
13.9
V
9.8
|
4.0pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1 |
12.2%Valinor | 14.1%market | -2.4pp |
P
16.3
F
14.2
V
12.2
|
4.0pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 4 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.0%market | -2.5pp |
P
14.4
F
13.9
V
13.0
|
1.4pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3 |
8.7%Valinor | 11.1%market | -2.8pp |
P
15.5
F
10.9
V
8.7
|
6.8pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 765 avg 3 books |
| 21 | Lineup pending | CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4 |
8.9%Valinor | 11.7%market | -3.3pp |
P
12.4
F
13.9
V
8.9
|
4.9pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 720 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6 |
10.0%Valinor | 13.1%market | -3.6pp |
P
12.7
F
13.2
V
10.0
|
3.1pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 16.5%market | -4.2pp |
P
15.3
F
13.9
V
12.9
|
2.4pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1 |
18.6%Valinor | 29.3%market | -11.7pp |
P
13.9
F
14.2
V
18.6
|
4.7pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Nick Kurtz
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1 |
13.9%Valinor | 26.5%market | -13.6pp |
P
13.6
F
10.9
V
13.9
|
2.9pp | 1.019xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1 |
12.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.1pp |
P
5.8
F
9.5
V
12.1
|
6.3pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1 |
11.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.6pp |
P
5.7
F
9.5
V
11.6
|
5.9pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Luis Arraez
SF
IN
|
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 1 |
9.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.8pp |
P
6.3
F
10.3
V
9.8
|
4.0pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6 |
8.5%Valinor | 8.9%market | -0.7pp |
P
7.5
F
0.0
V
8.5
|
8.5pp | 1.019xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 980 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Austin Riley
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4 |
15.8%Valinor | 16.4%market | -1.2pp |
P
11.3
F
12.4
V
15.8
|
4.4pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3 |
14.8%Valinor | 15.6%market | -1.4pp |
P
11.6
F
14.2
V
14.8
|
3.2pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5 |
14.7%Valinor | 16.2%market | -2.1pp |
P
12.1
F
13.2
V
14.7
|
2.6pp | 1.150xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 495 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5 |
12.5%Valinor | 14.2%market | -2.2pp |
P
15.5
F
14.2
V
12.5
|
3.0pp | 1.019xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 34 | IN | SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 3 |
13.0%Valinor | 14.8%market | -2.3pp |
P
11.6
F
10.7
V
13.0
|
2.3pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1 |
16.9%Valinor | 18.8%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.2
F
13.9
V
16.9
|
3.0pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.1%market | -2.7pp |
P
14.0
F
14.2
V
12.9
|
1.2pp | 1.019xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2 |
14.2%Valinor | 16.8%market | -3.2pp |
P
16.0
F
16.4
V
14.2
|
2.3pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 38 | IN | NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5 |
15.9%Valinor | 18.6%market | -3.3pp |
P
14.7
F
14.2
V
15.9
|
1.7pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 16.5%market | -3.5pp |
P
13.3
F
14.2
V
13.6
|
0.9pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.5pp |
P
13.5
F
13.1
V
12.7
|
0.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Ben Rice
NYY
IN
|
NYY vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6 |
12.0%Valinor | 15.7%market | -4.2pp |
P
13.1
F
14.2
V
12.0
|
2.2pp | 1.041xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 42 | IN | LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 17.9%market | -4.7pp |
P
11.8
F
12.4
V
13.8
|
2.0pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Willy Adames
SF
IN
|
SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 17.7%market | -4.7pp |
P
15.4
F
13.9
V
13.6
|
1.8pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 44 | IN | SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 1 |
13.1%Valinor | 17.4%market | -4.9pp |
P
14.4
F
14.2
V
13.1
|
1.3pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3 |
14.3%Valinor | 18.6%market | -4.9pp |
P
14.0
F
13.1
V
14.3
|
1.3pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 18.2%market | -5.4pp |
P
15.4
F
14.2
V
13.5
|
2.0pp | 1.072xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2 |
16.5%Valinor | 21.2%market | -5.5pp |
P
15.2
F
13.9
V
16.5
|
2.6pp | 1.020xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 48 | IN | SD vs SFRobbie Ray · slot 2 |
14.1%Valinor | 19.1%market | -5.7pp |
P
13.7
F
13.2
V
14.1
|
1.0pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 49 | IN | SF vs SDJp Sears · slot 2 |
14.5%Valinor | 19.7%market | -5.9pp |
P
13.9
F
12.4
V
14.5
|
2.1pp | 0.951xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 390 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IN
|
NYM vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2 |
13.6%Valinor | 18.9%market | -6.0pp |
P
14.8
F
13.2
V
13.6
|
1.6pp | 0.973xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Max Muncy
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6 |
11.3%Valinor | 18.8%market | -8.1pp |
P
11.0
F
12.1
V
11.3
|
1.0pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
Data context
779 sample flagsStatus2413roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.