Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-08 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
73
Matched
270
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 13.0%Fangorn 7.9%market +5.1pp
P 11.6
F 13.0
V 9.0
4.0pp 1.195xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
02
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
 13.7%Fangorn 9.1%market +4.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.7
V 10.2
3.9pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 7
 13.0%Fangorn 8.5%market +4.5pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 10.0
3.0pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
04
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
05
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 9.9%market +3.3pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 10.9
2.3pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
06
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 7
 12.9%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.0pp
P 13.4
F 12.9
V 9.1
4.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.6pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
08
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
 13.0%Fangorn 10.5%market +2.5pp
P 11.1
F 13.0
V 8.4
4.6pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
09
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 10.4
3.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
10
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 12.6
0.8pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
11
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 13.5%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.5
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
12
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.9pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.2pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
13
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 13.1%market +0.6pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 13.1
2.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
14
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 13.0%market +0.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 10.4
3.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 13.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 10.2
3.1pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
16
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 13.7%market -0.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.2
1.5pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
17
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 13.5%market -0.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 13.0
0.4pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
18
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.4pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
19
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
20
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 12.9
0.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
21
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
22
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 13.6
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
23
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.8pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
24
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
25
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 14.2
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
26
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.6pp
P 15.0
F 13.7
V 14.4
1.3pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
27
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
28
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
29
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
30
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 16.8
3.4pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
31
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
 13.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.3pp
P 9.9
F 13.0
V 14.8
4.9pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 7
 12.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.2pp
P 10.4
F 12.9
V 8.8
4.1pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.5
F 12.8
V 11.9
3.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.5pp
P 8.5
F 12.1
V 11.0
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 13.0%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.3pp
P 10.5
F 13.0
V 9.3
3.7pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
36
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 9.3%market +3.9pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 8.8
4.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
37
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.0pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
38
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.8
2.6pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
39
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 5
 13.0%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.5pp
P 11.2
F 13.0
V 15.6
4.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
40
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 14.2%market -1.0pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 11.3
1.9pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
41
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.5pp
P 12.0
F 13.3
V 13.1
1.2pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
42
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 14.9%market -1.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 12.0
1.4pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
43
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.1pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
44
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
45
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 4.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.6pp
P 6.0
F 4.4
V 9.5
5.1pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 14.0
0.9pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
47
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
48
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
49
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 17.1
3.8pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
50
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 17.9%market -4.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 11.6
2.0pp 1.195xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
51
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.7pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
52
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.4
1.9pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
53
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.7pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 16.9
3.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
54
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 11.4
2.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
55
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 18.2%market -5.0pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.3pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
56
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 13.9
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
57
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.5%market -5.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.4pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
58
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.8pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
59
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 19.1%market -5.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.7
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
60
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
61
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.8pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
62
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.0pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 11.2
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
63
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.1pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
1.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
64
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.3pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 14.8
2.0pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
65
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.6pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
66
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.6pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
67
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
68
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 22.0%market -8.7pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 12.0
1.3pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
69
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 22.5%market -9.1pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
70
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 23.0%market -9.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 16.0
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
71
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 23.3%market -10.2pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 12.0
1.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
72
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.6pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
73
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 29.8%market -16.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2528roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.