Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
73
Matched
270
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 10.7%market +2.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.6pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
02
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6
 12.6%Valinor 11.0%market +1.3pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 12.6
0.8pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 7
 10.0%Valinor 8.5%market +1.2pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 10.0
3.0pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
04
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 9.0%Valinor 7.9%market +0.9pp
P 11.6
F 13.0
V 9.0
4.0pp 1.195xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
05
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
 15.6%Valinor 14.1%market +0.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
06
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
 10.2%Valinor 9.1%market +0.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.7
V 10.2
3.9pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
07
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
 10.9%Valinor 9.9%market +0.6pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 10.9
2.3pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
08
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 10.9%Valinor 10.0%market +0.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
09
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 13.2%Valinor 12.3%market +0.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.5
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
10
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
 13.2%Valinor 12.5%market +0.2pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.2pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
11
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
 13.0%Valinor 13.1%market -0.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 13.0
0.4pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 640 avg 3 books
12
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 13.1%Valinor 13.2%market -0.6pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 13.1
2.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
13
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 6
 10.4%Valinor 11.0%market -1.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 10.4
3.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
14
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 7
 9.1%Valinor 10.0%market -1.3pp
P 13.4
F 12.9
V 9.1
4.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
15
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 5
 12.2%Valinor 13.2%market -1.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.2
1.5pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
16
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 15.0%market -1.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
17
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
 13.2%Valinor 14.5%market -1.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
18
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 15.0%Valinor 16.4%market -1.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
19
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 12.9%Valinor 14.8%market -2.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 12.9
0.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
20
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 17.7%market -2.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
21
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
 8.4%Valinor 10.6%market -2.6pp
P 11.1
F 13.0
V 8.4
4.6pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
22
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 16.0%market -2.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.8pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
23
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 15.0%Valinor 17.1%market -2.7pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
24
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 13.6%Valinor 15.7%market -2.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 13.6
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
25
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 16.7%market -2.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.7
V 14.4
1.3pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
26
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 16.5%market -2.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 14.2
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
27
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
 16.8%Valinor 19.1%market -3.0pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 16.8
3.4pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
28
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 14.7%Valinor 17.1%market -3.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
29
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 10.4%Valinor 13.0%market -3.1pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 10.4
3.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
30
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 10.2%Valinor 13.1%market -3.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 10.2
3.1pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
31
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 12.0%Valinor 21.5%market -10.2pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 12.0
1.3pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
32
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 12.0%Valinor 22.7%market -11.5pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 12.0
1.0pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
33
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 29.3%market -13.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
34
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
 14.8%Valinor 7.7%market +6.8pp
P 9.9
F 13.0
V 14.8
4.9pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 11.9%Valinor 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 9.5
F 12.8
V 11.9
3.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 11.0%Valinor 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 8.5
F 12.1
V 11.0
3.6pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 5
 15.6%Valinor 12.5%market +2.6pp
P 11.2
F 13.0
V 15.6
4.4pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
38
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 9.5%Valinor 7.7%market +1.5pp
P 6.0
F 4.4
V 9.5
5.1pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 7
 8.8%Valinor 7.7%market +0.8pp
P 10.4
F 12.9
V 8.8
4.1pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 9.3%Valinor 8.7%market +0.3pp
P 10.5
F 13.0
V 9.3
3.7pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
41
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 1
 17.1%Valinor 17.1%market -0.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 17.1
3.8pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
42
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
 8.8%Valinor 9.5%market -1.1pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 8.8
4.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
43
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 16.1%Valinor 16.7%market -1.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
44
Salvador Perez KC
Lineup pending
KC vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 4
 16.9%Valinor 17.5%market -1.3pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 16.9
3.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
45
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
 13.1%Valinor 14.3%market -1.7pp
P 12.0
F 13.3
V 13.1
1.2pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
46
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 9.7%Valinor 11.2%market -2.0pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
47
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3
 10.8%Valinor 13.3%market -2.5pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 10.8
2.6pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
48
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 15.4%Valinor 17.4%market -2.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.4
1.9pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
49
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 12.0%Valinor 14.4%market -2.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 12.0
1.4pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
50
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5
 11.3%Valinor 13.6%market -2.9pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 11.3
1.9pp 0.891xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
51
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 14.0%Valinor 16.5%market -3.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.3
V 14.0
0.9pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
52
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 14.4%Valinor 17.1%market -3.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
53
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 12.3%Valinor 15.3%market -3.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.1pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
54
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 15.6%Valinor 18.8%market -3.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 15.6
2.2pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
55
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 11.6%Valinor 15.5%market -4.5pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
56
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 14.7%Valinor 18.6%market -4.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.7
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
57
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 17.9%market -4.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 13.9
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
58
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 18.2%market -4.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.8pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
59
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 17.1%market -4.8pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.7pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
60
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 18.1%market -4.9pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.4pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
61
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 19.1%market -5.0pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 14.8
2.0pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
62
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 17.7%market -5.4pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.3pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
63
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
 13.9%Valinor 18.9%market -5.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.8pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
64
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5
 11.6%Valinor 17.4%market -6.4pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 11.6
2.0pp 1.195xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
65
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
 12.8%Valinor 18.8%market -6.6pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
1.5pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
66
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 11.4%Valinor 17.9%market -7.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 11.4
2.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
67
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 16.0%Valinor 22.4%market -7.2pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 16.0
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
68
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 20.3%market -7.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.6pp 0.953xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
69
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 13.1%Valinor 20.3%market -8.0pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
70
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6
 11.2%Valinor 18.8%market -8.2pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 11.2
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
71
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
 14.0%Valinor 22.0%market -8.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
72
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 12.0%Valinor 20.5%market -9.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 12.0
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
73
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
 16.6%Valinor 26.5%market -10.8pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.105xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2528roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.