Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
312
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-11 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.5pp
P 10.7
F 13.2
V 8.1
5.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.5pp
P 11.2
F 13.2
V 11.1
2.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 9.2%market +4.1pp
P 12.1
F 13.3
V 9.2
4.1pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 955 avg 3 books
04
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.1pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 9.2
4.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
05
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 13.3%Fangorn 9.7%market +3.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 10.8
2.5pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
06
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.3pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 10.5%market +2.7pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 9.5
3.7pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
08
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 10.5%market +2.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.0
V 11.0
3.2pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.5pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 10.5
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
10
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.4pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
11
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
 13.3%Fangorn 11.3%market +2.0pp
P 12.4
F 13.3
V 10.5
2.8pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
12
Austin Hays CWS
IN
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.7pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 725 avg 3 books
13
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.6pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 10.8
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
14
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 12.1%market +1.6pp
P 14.9
F 13.7
V 9.6
5.3pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
15
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 7
 13.4%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.2
3.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
16
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 9.4
3.8pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
17
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.3pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.4pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
18
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.9pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 12.8
1.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
19
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.3
V 11.7
1.7pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
20
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.9
0.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
21
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 13.1%market +0.3pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.5pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
22
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 13.7%market -0.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
0.9pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
23
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.1
1.3pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
24
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 12.9%Fangorn 13.4%market -0.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.9
V 10.9
2.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
25
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
26
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 14.3%market -1.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
27
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.5pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
28
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.0pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
29
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 15.4%market -2.2pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.6pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
31
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.6pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
32
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
33
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.8pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.4pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
34
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.4pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
35
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.6pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 12.7
2.0pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
36
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 12.1
1.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
37
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 4.4%Fangorn 9.2%market -4.8pp
P 11.1
F 4.4
V 9.8
6.7pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
38
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 12.7
2.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
39
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 15.5
2.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
40
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.3pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
41
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.0pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
42
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
 12.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.2pp
P 9.6
F 12.9
V 12.7
3.3pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.5
F 12.8
V 9.7
3.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.7
F 12.8
V 13.1
3.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7
 12.8%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.8
F 12.8
V 9.0
3.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 7.9
F 11.6
V 11.9
4.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
 13.0%Fangorn 10.1%market +2.9pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
48
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.1pp
P 11.4
F 11.6
V 12.8
1.4pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
49
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 13.0%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.9pp
P 11.4
F 13.0
V 15.1
3.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
50
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 14.7%market -1.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 13.5
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
51
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 13.0%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.3pp
P 12.8
F 13.0
V 12.9
0.2pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
52
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.5pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 13.9
1.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
53
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.0
1.2pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
54
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.0pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
55
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 11.7
1.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
56
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.0pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
57
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
58
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 14.2
1.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
59
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.9%market -4.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.1
1.0pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
60
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 13.9
0.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
61
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
62
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 16.7
3.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.5%market -5.1pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
64
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 17.4
4.1pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
65
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 15.7
2.2pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 19.1%market -5.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
67
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.1pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
68
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.9pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
69
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
70
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
71
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
72
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
73
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.6
1.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
74
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 23.0%market -9.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
75
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 25.6%market -12.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
76
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
77
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 29.8%market -16.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status2521roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.