Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
77
Matched
312
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-11 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 11.1%Valinor 8.7%market +2.1pp
P 11.2
F 13.2
V 11.1
2.1pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 13.3%Valinor 11.9%market +0.9pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.3
0.4pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
03
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
 10.8%Valinor 9.7%market +0.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 10.8
2.5pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
04
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 9.8%Valinor 8.7%market +0.7pp
P 11.1
F 4.4
V 9.8
6.7pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
05
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 13.5%market +0.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 3
 11.0%Valinor 10.5%market +0.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.0
V 11.0
3.2pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
07
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
 8.1%Valinor 7.7%market +0.1pp
P 10.7
F 13.2
V 8.1
5.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
08
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 12.3%market +0.1pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 12.8
1.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
09
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 13.7%Valinor 13.2%market -0.1pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.5pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
10
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
 12.9%Valinor 13.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.9
0.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
11
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 10.1%Valinor 10.1%market -0.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.3pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
12
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6
 9.2%Valinor 9.3%market -0.5pp
P 12.1
F 13.3
V 9.2
4.1pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 930 avg 3 books
13
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3
 9.2%Valinor 9.5%market -0.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 9.2
4.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
14
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 5
 10.5%Valinor 10.7%market -0.7pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 10.5
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
15
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 13.6%Valinor 13.8%market -0.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
16
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 13.4%market -0.8pp
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 13.1
1.3pp 1.035xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 620 avg 3 books
17
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
 12.6%Valinor 13.2%market -1.1pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
0.9pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
18
Austin Hays CWS
IN
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
 10.9%Valinor 12.2%market -1.3pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
19
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 11.7%Valinor 12.5%market -1.3pp
P 13.0
F 13.3
V 11.7
1.7pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
20
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
 10.5%Valinor 11.8%market -1.4pp
P 12.4
F 13.3
V 10.5
2.8pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
21
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
 10.8%Valinor 11.7%market -1.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 10.8
2.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
22
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 6
 10.0%Valinor 11.0%market -1.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
23
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6
 9.5%Valinor 10.6%market -1.5pp
P 11.9
F 13.2
V 9.5
3.7pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
24
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 5
 13.4%Valinor 14.5%market -1.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
1.0pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
25
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 14.3%market -1.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.6pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
26
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
 13.4%Valinor 15.0%market -2.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
27
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 15.1%market -2.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.6pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
28
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
 13.6%Valinor 15.3%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
29
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 7
 10.2%Valinor 12.5%market -2.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 10.2
3.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
30
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 10.9%Valinor 13.0%market -2.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.9
V 10.9
2.0pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
31
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
 12.7%Valinor 14.9%market -2.7pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.6pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
32
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 15.5%Valinor 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 15.5
2.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
33
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 9.4%Valinor 11.8%market -2.8pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 9.4
3.8pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
34
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 4
 13.1%Valinor 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.4pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
35
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
 9.6%Valinor 12.7%market -3.1pp
P 14.9
F 13.7
V 9.6
5.3pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
36
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 16.1%market -3.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.4pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
37
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 12.7%Valinor 16.7%market -4.5pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 12.7
2.0pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
38
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 13.7%Valinor 18.2%market -5.2pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.3pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
39
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 13.9%Valinor 18.9%market -5.7pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
40
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1
 12.7%Valinor 17.9%market -5.9pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 12.7
2.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
41
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 3
 13.8%Valinor 26.5%market -13.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
42
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 29.3%market -14.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 15.8
2.5pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
43
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 9.7
F 12.8
V 13.1
3.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
 12.7%Valinor 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 9.6
F 12.9
V 12.7
3.3pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 11.9%Valinor 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 7.9
F 11.6
V 11.9
4.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 10.1%market +3.0pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
47
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
 12.8%Valinor 10.5%market +1.9pp
P 11.4
F 11.6
V 12.8
1.4pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
48
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
 9.7%Valinor 7.7%market +1.7pp
P 9.5
F 12.8
V 9.7
3.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 13.3%market +1.3pp
P 11.4
F 13.0
V 15.1
3.7pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
50
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7
 9.0%Valinor 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.8
F 12.8
V 9.0
3.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
 13.5%Valinor 14.2%market -1.2pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 13.5
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
52
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs LADBlake Snell · slot 4
 17.4%Valinor 18.2%market -1.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 17.4
4.1pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
53
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs LADBlake Snell · slot 1
 16.7%Valinor 17.7%market -1.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.3
V 16.7
3.4pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
54
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
 13.9%Valinor 15.2%market -1.9pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 13.9
1.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
55
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 12.9%Valinor 14.8%market -2.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.0
V 12.9
0.2pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
56
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
 14.4%Valinor 16.5%market -2.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
57
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 15.1%Valinor 17.4%market -2.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
58
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 17.1%market -3.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 14.2
1.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
59
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 15.7%Valinor 18.6%market -3.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 15.7
2.2pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
60
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 15.0%Valinor 18.1%market -3.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.6pp 0.996xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
61
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 17.1%market -3.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 13.9
0.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
62
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 12.0%Valinor 15.3%market -3.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.0
1.2pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
63
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6
 12.4%Valinor 15.7%market -3.9pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.0pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
64
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 12.3%Valinor 15.7%market -4.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.0pp 0.968xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
65
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
 11.7%Valinor 15.7%market -4.6pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 11.7
1.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
66
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
 12.1%Valinor 16.5%market -5.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 12.1
1.9pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
67
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 17.4%market -5.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.1
1.0pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
68
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 19.1%market -5.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 0.966xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
69
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs STLAndre Pallante · slot 2
 13.9%Valinor 19.1%market -5.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.9pp 1.104xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
70
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
 14.7%Valinor 20.3%market -6.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
71
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
 12.7%Valinor 18.6%market -6.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.8pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
72
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 19.9%market -6.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
73
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
 14.6%Valinor 21.2%market -7.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.6
1.5pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
74
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
 15.8%Valinor 22.4%market -7.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
75
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 20.5%market -7.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
76
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
 9.6%Valinor 18.8%market -9.8pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
77
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 25.1%market -11.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.064xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 285 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status2521roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.