Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
46
Matched
192
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-08-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 9.3%market +2.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 9.6
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.0pp
P 9.4
F 11.9
V 8.9
2.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 11.7%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.9pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 10.1
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
04
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 12.1%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.2pp
P 10.4
F 12.1
V 9.7
2.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
05
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 10.9
2.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
06
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 11.3%Fangorn 10.5%market +0.8pp
P 9.5
F 11.3
V 8.1
3.3pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
07
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.1
F 11.3
V 10.0
3.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
08
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 12.3%market -0.4pp
P 12.3
F 11.9
V 10.8
1.5pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
09
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.8pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.8pp
P 12.2
F 12.1
V 11.4
0.8pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
11
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 6
 11.9%Fangorn 12.9%market -1.0pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 11.1
0.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
12
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 8.7
3.7pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
13
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 11.4%market -1.6pp
P 11.0
F 9.9
V 11.5
1.6pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
14
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 11.3%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.7pp
P 11.3
F 11.3
V 11.2
0.2pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
15
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 12.1
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
16
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.1%market -2.2pp
P 11.6
F 11.9
V 12.4
0.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
17
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 11.0
1.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
18
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.9pp
P 12.1
F 11.9
V 13.1
1.3pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
19
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 15.4%market -3.0pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 13.2
0.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
20
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 13.9
1.4pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
21
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
22
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 11.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.2pp
P 9.5
F 11.9
V 8.0
3.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.2
F 10.9
V 12.7
5.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 1
 10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 7.1
F 10.3
V 10.6
3.5pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 11.3%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.6pp
P 8.6
F 11.3
V 9.0
2.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
26
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 11.3%Fangorn 9.4%market +1.9pp
P 8.6
F 11.3
V 11.0
2.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
27
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 9.5%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 5.5
F 9.5
V 10.5
5.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 6
 11.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -1.4pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 9.8
1.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
29
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 14.5%market -2.6pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 12.4
0.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
30
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.4pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
31
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.4pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 12.0
0.2pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
32
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.8pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
33
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 15.9%market -4.0pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
34
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 3.5%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 5.1
F 3.5
V 8.9
5.4pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
35
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
36
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 16.7%market -4.8pp
P 11.0
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
37
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.1pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 13.1
1.4pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
38
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.8pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 12.2
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
39
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 18.7%market -6.1pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 14.3
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
40
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 18.0%market -6.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 13.0
1.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
41
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 14.4
2.3pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
42
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.4pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
43
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 22.7%market -10.3pp
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 10.9
1.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
44
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 23.3%market -12.0pp
P 10.3
F 11.3
V 11.3
1.0pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
45
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 12.1%Fangorn 27.0%market -14.9pp
P 12.2
F 12.1
V 14.3
2.2pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
46
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 26.3%market -15.0pp
P 12.2
F 11.3
V 13.9
2.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2455roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.