Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
46
Matched
192
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-08-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 11.5%Valinor 10.9%market +0.2pp
P 11.0
F 9.9
V 11.5
1.6pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 9.6%Valinor 9.5%market -0.2pp
P 11.5
F 12.1
V 9.6
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 10.1%Valinor 9.9%market -0.2pp
P 9.8
F 11.7
V 10.1
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
04
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 10.9%Valinor 10.7%market -0.2pp
P 9.1
F 11.7
V 10.9
2.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
05
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 11.2%Valinor 12.0%market -1.3pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
06
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 8.9%Valinor 10.0%market -1.4pp
P 9.4
F 11.9
V 8.9
2.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
07
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 10.8%Valinor 11.8%market -1.5pp
P 12.3
F 11.9
V 10.8
1.5pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
08
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 10.0%Valinor 11.1%market -1.5pp
P 13.1
F 11.3
V 10.0
3.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
09
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 13.9
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 11.4%Valinor 13.0%market -1.6pp
P 12.2
F 12.1
V 11.4
0.8pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
11
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 14.3%market -1.7pp
P 12.1
F 11.9
V 13.1
1.3pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
12
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 13.6%market -1.7pp
P 11.6
F 11.9
V 12.4
0.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
13
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 13.9%Valinor 15.1%market -1.7pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 13.9
1.4pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
14
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 9.7%Valinor 11.0%market -1.8pp
P 10.4
F 12.1
V 9.7
2.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
15
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 6
 11.1%Valinor 12.4%market -1.8pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 11.1
0.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
16
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 11.2%Valinor 13.1%market -1.9pp
P 11.3
F 11.3
V 11.2
0.2pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
17
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 13.2%Valinor 14.9%market -2.2pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 13.2
0.8pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
18
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 12.1%Valinor 14.1%market -2.5pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 12.1
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
19
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 8.1%Valinor 10.6%market -2.9pp
P 9.5
F 11.3
V 8.1
3.3pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
20
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 2
 11.0%Valinor 15.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 11.0
1.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
21
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
 8.7%Valinor 13.0%market -4.8pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 8.7
3.7pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
22
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
 10.9%Valinor 22.2%market -12.0pp
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 10.9
1.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
23
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
 11.3%Valinor 22.7%market -12.2pp
P 10.3
F 11.3
V 11.3
1.0pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
24
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 25.8%market -12.8pp
P 12.2
F 11.3
V 13.9
2.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
25
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 14.3%Valinor 26.5%market -13.1pp
P 12.2
F 12.1
V 14.3
2.2pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
26
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 12.7%Valinor 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 7.2
F 10.9
V 12.7
5.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 1
 10.6%Valinor 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 7.1
F 10.3
V 10.6
3.5pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 10.5%Valinor 7.7%market +2.5pp
P 5.5
F 9.5
V 10.5
5.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 11.0%Valinor 9.4%market +1.3pp
P 8.6
F 11.3
V 11.0
2.6pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
30
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
 8.9%Valinor 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 5.1
F 3.5
V 8.9
5.4pp 0.939xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 8.0%Valinor 7.7%market -0.0pp
P 9.5
F 11.9
V 8.0
3.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 9.0%Valinor 8.9%market -0.2pp
P 8.6
F 11.3
V 9.0
2.7pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 985 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 13.9%Valinor 14.8%market -1.4pp
P 11.3
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
34
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
35
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 14.0%market -2.1pp
P 11.8
F 11.9
V 12.4
0.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
36
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 15.7%market -2.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.4pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
37
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 6
 9.8%Valinor 12.0%market -2.7pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 9.8
1.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
38
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 16.5%market -2.9pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
39
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
 12.0%Valinor 14.8%market -3.2pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 12.0
0.2pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
40
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 13.1%Valinor 16.4%market -3.9pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 13.1
1.4pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
41
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 12.9%Valinor 16.2%market -3.9pp
P 11.0
F 11.9
V 12.9
1.9pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
42
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 14.3%Valinor 18.2%market -4.5pp
P 13.6
F 12.6
V 14.3
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
43
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 13.0%Valinor 17.5%market -5.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 13.0
1.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
44
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 19.1%market -5.4pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 14.4
2.3pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
45
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 12.2%Valinor 17.9%market -6.4pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 12.2
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
46
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 21.5%market -8.0pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books

Data context

782 sample flags
Status2455roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.