Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
63
Matched
237
Lineups
306
HR BOARD 2026-08-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 7
 12.9%Palantir 10.0%market +3.0pp
P 12.9
F 11.1
V 7.0
5.9pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
02
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 12.6%Palantir 10.0%market +2.6pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 9.2
3.4pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
03
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 11.1%market +2.5pp
P 13.6
F 11.3
V 10.7
2.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
04
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 10.8%Palantir 9.9%market +0.9pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 9.2
2.7pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
05
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 13.0%market +0.3pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 10.3
3.0pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 10.0%Palantir 10.3%market -0.4pp
P 10.0
F 11.9
V 9.6
2.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
07
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 14.6%market -0.4pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.8
1.6pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
08
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 12.3%Palantir 13.0%market -0.7pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.0
0.2pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
09
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 13.5%market -0.7pp
P 12.8
F 11.9
V 11.4
1.4pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
10
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 12.1%Palantir 13.0%market -0.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 10.6
1.8pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
11
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 7
 11.6%Palantir 12.5%market -0.9pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 8.8
3.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
12
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 12.2%Palantir 13.2%market -1.0pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 10.5
1.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 655 avg 3 books
13
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 2
 12.2%Palantir 13.3%market -1.2pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 11.7
0.5pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
14
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 12.8%Palantir 14.5%market -1.7pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 12.7
0.4pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
15
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 17.0%market -1.8pp
P 15.1
F 12.6
V 14.4
2.5pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
16
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 13.7%Palantir 15.8%market -2.0pp
P 13.7
F 12.6
V 13.5
1.2pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
17
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 15.1
2.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
18
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 16.1%market -2.3pp
P 13.8
F 12.4
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
19
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 6
 10.9%Palantir 13.4%market -2.5pp
P 10.9
F 10.9
V 10.1
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
20
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5
 10.3%Palantir 12.8%market -2.6pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 12.7
2.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
21
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 14.7%Palantir 17.2%market -2.6pp
P 14.7
F 14.1
V 14.0
0.7pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
22
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 11.9%Palantir 14.6%market -2.7pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 12.3
0.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
23
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
 12.5%Palantir 15.5%market -3.0pp
P 12.5
F 12.1
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
24
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 15.9%market -3.5pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 14.6
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
25
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 19.1%market -4.9pp
P 14.2
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
26
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 9.9%Palantir 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 9.9
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.6pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Jahmai Jones DET
IN
DET vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2
 15.5%Palantir 13.6%market +1.9pp
P 15.5
F 14.1
V 11.9
3.6pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
28
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 8.3%Palantir 7.7%market +0.6pp
P 8.3
F 11.3
V 11.3
3.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 10.4%Palantir 10.1%market +0.3pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 11.6
1.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
30
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 7
 7.7%Palantir 8.0%market -0.3pp
P 7.7
F 10.9
V 8.2
3.2pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
31
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 7.2%Palantir 8.0%market -0.8pp
P 7.2
F 11.1
V 12.0
4.8pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
32
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 12.3%Palantir 13.3%market -1.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 10.2
2.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
33
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
 9.8%Palantir 11.0%market -1.2pp
P 9.8
F 9.9
V 11.0
1.2pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
34
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 12.5%Palantir 13.7%market -1.2pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 12.8
0.4pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
35
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 6.5%Palantir 8.0%market -1.5pp
P 6.5
F 9.9
V 9.8
3.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
36
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 7
 8.6%Palantir 10.1%market -1.5pp
P 8.6
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.8pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 890 avg 3 books
37
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 5.8%Palantir 8.0%market -2.2pp
P 5.8
F 9.9
V 10.1
4.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 12.4%Palantir 14.9%market -2.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 12.2
0.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
39
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 15.6%market -2.7pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
40
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 10.8%Palantir 14.2%market -3.4pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 10.7
1.1pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
41
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 17.7%market -3.9pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 14.7
2.1pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
42
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 10.7%Palantir 14.9%market -4.2pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.3
1.0pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
43
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
 12.7%Palantir 17.0%market -4.2pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
44
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 13.3%Palantir 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 14.4
1.9pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
45
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 3.4%Palantir 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 3.4
F 3.5
V 9.3
5.9pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 13.3%Palantir 18.0%market -4.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 13.3
1.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
47
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 11.4%Palantir 16.3%market -4.9pp
P 11.4
F 11.3
V 13.7
2.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
48
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 19.4%market -5.2pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.8
1.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
49
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 11.8%Palantir 17.2%market -5.4pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
50
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 12.7%Palantir 18.4%market -5.7pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
51
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 10.7%Palantir 16.5%market -5.8pp
P 10.7
F 12.1
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
52
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
 9.9%Palantir 15.8%market -5.8pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
2.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
53
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 12.9%Palantir 19.8%market -6.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 14.4
1.8pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
54
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
 12.0%Palantir 19.2%market -7.2pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 11.6
0.4pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
55
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 11.2%Palantir 18.9%market -7.6pp
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 14.3
3.1pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
56
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 12.7%Palantir 20.8%market -8.2pp
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 14.7
2.8pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
57
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 12.1%Palantir 20.8%market -8.7pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 13.3
1.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
58
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
 12.2%Palantir 21.1%market -8.8pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
59
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 11.7%Palantir 21.7%market -10.0pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 14.5
2.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
60
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 11.3%Palantir 22.0%market -10.7pp
P 11.3
F 12.1
V 12.1
0.8pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
61
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 11.3%Palantir 23.3%market -11.9pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 12.0
0.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
62
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 13.2%Palantir 26.3%market -13.1pp
P 13.2
F 11.7
V 13.9
2.2pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
63
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 14.0%Palantir 29.8%market -15.8pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 18.1
5.6pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2437roster/transaction rows
Lineups306confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.