Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 12.3%market | -0.1pp |
P
10.3
F
11.9
V
12.7
|
2.4pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 680 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Ian Happ
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4 |
15.1%Valinor | 15.0%market | -0.4pp |
P
13.3
F
12.4
V
15.1
|
2.7pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5 |
9.6%Valinor | 10.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
10.0
F
11.9
V
9.6
|
2.3pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 865 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
10.7%Valinor | 11.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.6
F
11.3
V
10.7
|
2.8pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 765 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4 |
12.0%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.9pp |
P
12.3
F
12.1
V
12.0
|
0.2pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1 |
9.2%Valinor | 10.0%market | -1.3pp |
P
10.8
F
11.9
V
9.2
|
2.7pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 860 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5 |
14.6%Valinor | 15.3%market | -1.3pp |
P
12.3
F
12.4
V
14.6
|
2.3pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1 |
9.2%Valinor | 10.1%market | -1.4pp |
P
12.6
F
12.6
V
9.2
|
3.4pp | 0.994xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 850 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 2 |
11.7%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.7pp |
P
12.2
F
11.9
V
11.7
|
0.5pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
12.8%Valinor | 14.1%market | -1.8pp |
P
14.2
F
12.6
V
12.8
|
1.6pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 14.0%market | -1.8pp |
P
12.8
F
12.4
V
12.7
|
0.4pp | 1.125xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 590 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4 |
11.4%Valinor | 13.1%market | -2.1pp |
P
12.8
F
11.9
V
11.4
|
1.4pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 640 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5 |
14.1%Valinor | 15.7%market | -2.1pp |
P
13.8
F
12.4
V
14.1
|
1.7pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4 |
12.3%Valinor | 14.1%market | -2.3pp |
P
11.9
F
11.9
V
12.3
|
0.4pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 15 | IN | MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3 |
10.6%Valinor | 12.5%market | -2.4pp |
P
12.1
F
12.4
V
10.6
|
1.8pp | 0.994xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1 |
13.5%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.4pp |
P
13.7
F
12.6
V
13.5
|
1.2pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.0%market | -2.6pp |
P
12.5
F
12.1
V
12.9
|
0.8pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 16.5%market | -2.7pp |
P
15.1
F
12.6
V
14.4
|
2.5pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5 |
10.5%Valinor | 12.7%market | -2.8pp |
P
12.2
F
11.9
V
10.5
|
1.8pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 20 | IN | CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4 |
10.3%Valinor | 13.0%market | -3.2pp |
P
13.3
F
12.6
V
10.3
|
3.0pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2 |
14.0%Valinor | 16.7%market | -3.3pp |
P
14.7
F
14.1
V
14.0
|
0.7pp | 0.994xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 6 |
10.1%Valinor | 13.0%market | -3.3pp |
P
10.9
F
10.9
V
10.1
|
0.8pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 7 |
7.0%Valinor | 10.0%market | -3.4pp |
P
12.9
F
11.1
V
7.0
|
5.9pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 860 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 7 |
8.8%Valinor | 12.5%market | -3.7pp |
P
11.6
F
12.1
V
8.8
|
3.3pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3 |
13.8%Valinor | 18.6%market | -5.4pp |
P
14.2
F
12.4
V
13.8
|
1.7pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 26 | IN | TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4 |
12.1%Valinor | 21.5%market | -10.1pp |
P
11.3
F
12.1
V
12.1
|
0.8pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1 |
18.1%Valinor | 29.3%market | -12.2pp |
P
14.0
F
12.6
V
18.1
|
5.6pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3 |
13.9%Valinor | 25.8%market | -12.7pp |
P
13.2
F
11.7
V
13.9
|
2.2pp | 1.125xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 275 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Luis Arraez
SF
IN
|
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1 |
12.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.0pp |
P
7.2
F
11.1
V
12.0
|
4.8pp | 0.945xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1 |
11.3%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.4pp |
P
8.3
F
11.3
V
11.3
|
3.0pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
10.1%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.1pp |
P
5.8
F
9.9
V
10.1
|
4.3pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
IN
|
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1 |
9.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.8pp |
P
6.5
F
9.9
V
9.8
|
3.3pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 | IN | TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1 |
9.3%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.3pp |
P
3.4
F
3.5
V
9.3
|
5.9pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2 |
11.6%Valinor | 10.1%market | +1.1pp |
P
10.4
F
11.7
V
11.6
|
1.4pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6 |
8.6%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.6pp |
P
9.9
F
12.1
V
8.6
|
3.6pp | 1.038xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
IN
|
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 7 |
8.2%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.2pp |
P
7.7
F
10.9
V
8.2
|
3.2pp | 0.945xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1 |
11.0%Valinor | 10.5%market | +0.1pp |
P
9.8
F
9.9
V
11.0
|
1.2pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
IN
|
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5 |
12.8%Valinor | 13.2%market | -0.9pp |
P
12.5
F
12.4
V
12.8
|
0.4pp | 0.945xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 630 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs BALShane Baz · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.1%market | -1.8pp |
P
12.9
F
12.6
V
13.8
|
1.3pp | 0.992xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 40 | IN | SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 7 |
8.3%Valinor | 9.7%market | -1.8pp |
P
8.6
F
11.1
V
8.3
|
2.8pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 890 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
IN
|
DET vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2 |
11.9%Valinor | 13.8%market | -2.4pp |
P
15.5
F
14.1
V
11.9
|
3.6pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 600 avg 3 books |
| 42 | IN | SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3 |
13.7%Valinor | 15.7%market | -2.6pp |
P
11.4
F
11.3
V
13.7
|
2.4pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
IN
|
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2 |
12.2%Valinor | 14.4%market | -2.8pp |
P
12.4
F
12.6
V
12.2
|
0.4pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 44 | IN | DET vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5 |
14.7%Valinor | 17.1%market | -3.0pp |
P
13.8
F
12.6
V
14.7
|
2.1pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5 |
12.7%Valinor | 15.2%market | -3.1pp |
P
9.9
F
11.7
V
12.7
|
2.7pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3 |
10.2%Valinor | 13.3%market | -3.1pp |
P
12.3
F
12.6
V
10.2
|
2.4pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Zach Neto
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1 |
14.4%Valinor | 17.2%market | -3.4pp |
P
13.3
F
12.6
V
14.4
|
1.9pp | 1.028xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 460 avg 3 books |
| 48 | IN | TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 13.6%market | -3.5pp |
P
10.8
F
11.7
V
10.7
|
1.1pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 49 | Lineup pending | SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4 |
11.3%Valinor | 14.4%market | -3.6pp |
P
10.7
F
11.7
V
11.3
|
1.0pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4 |
13.3%Valinor | 16.4%market | -3.6pp |
P
12.7
F
12.4
V
13.3
|
0.9pp | 1.125xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 51 | IN | SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1 |
13.5%Valinor | 16.7%market | -3.7pp |
P
11.8
F
12.1
V
13.5
|
1.7pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 16.1%market | -3.8pp |
P
10.7
F
12.1
V
12.9
|
2.2pp | 1.028xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 500 avg 3 books |
| 53 | IN | LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4 |
14.1%Valinor | 17.9%market | -4.5pp |
P
12.7
F
12.1
V
14.1
|
2.0pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 54 | IN | SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2 |
14.3%Valinor | 18.4%market | -4.7pp |
P
11.2
F
11.9
V
14.3
|
3.1pp | 0.878xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Julio Rodríguez
SEA
IN
|
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1 |
13.3%Valinor | 17.5%market | -4.9pp |
P
13.3
F
12.1
V
13.3
|
1.1pp | 1.125xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 450 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Mike Trout
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 19.3%market | -5.6pp |
P
12.9
F
12.6
V
14.4
|
1.8pp | 1.028xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 400 avg 3 books |
| 57 | IN | SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2 |
14.7%Valinor | 20.3%market | -6.4pp |
P
12.7
F
11.9
V
14.7
|
2.8pp | 0.945xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2 |
12.8%Valinor | 18.9%market | -6.8pp |
P
14.2
F
12.6
V
12.8
|
1.6pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3 |
14.0%Valinor | 20.5%market | -7.3pp |
P
12.2
F
12.6
V
14.0
|
1.7pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3 |
14.5%Valinor | 21.2%market | -7.5pp |
P
11.7
F
11.9
V
14.5
|
2.7pp | 1.044xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Jo Adell
LAA
IN
|
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4 |
13.3%Valinor | 20.3%market | -7.8pp |
P
12.1
F
12.4
V
13.3
|
1.2pp | 1.028xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Max Muncy
LAD
IN
|
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6 |
11.6%Valinor | 18.8%market | -7.8pp |
P
12.0
F
11.9
V
11.6
|
0.4pp | 1.123xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 63 | IN | CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3 |
12.0%Valinor | 22.7%market | -11.6pp |
P
11.3
F
11.7
V
12.0
|
0.6pp | 1.037xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 325 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus2437roster/transaction rows
Lineups306confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.