Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
63
Matched
237
Lineups
306
HR BOARD 2026-08-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 10.0%market +2.5pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 9.2
3.4pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
02
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.0pp
P 10.0
F 11.9
V 9.6
2.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 9.9%market +2.0pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 9.2
2.7pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
04
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 7
 11.1%Fangorn 10.0%market +1.2pp
P 12.9
F 11.1
V 7.0
5.9pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
05
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.3pp
P 13.6
F 11.3
V 10.7
2.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
06
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 7
 12.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 8.8
3.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
07
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 10.6
1.8pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
08
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.1
V 12.0
0.2pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
09
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.0pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 10.3
3.0pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
10
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.8%market -1.0pp
P 10.3
F 11.9
V 12.7
2.4pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
11
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 13.2%market -1.4pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 10.5
1.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 655 avg 3 books
12
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 2
 11.9%Fangorn 13.3%market -1.5pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 11.7
0.5pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
13
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 12.8
F 11.9
V 11.4
1.4pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
14
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.8
1.6pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
15
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 14.5%market -2.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 12.7
0.4pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
16
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 6
 10.9%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.6pp
P 10.9
F 10.9
V 10.1
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
17
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.7pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 12.3
0.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
18
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 15.1
2.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
19
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 14.7
F 14.1
V 14.0
0.7pp 0.994xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
20
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 13.7
F 12.6
V 13.5
1.2pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
21
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.4pp
P 12.5
F 12.1
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
22
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.4
V 14.6
2.3pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
23
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 16.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.8
F 12.4
V 14.1
1.7pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
24
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.4pp
P 15.1
F 12.6
V 14.4
2.5pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
25
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.6pp
P 14.2
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
26
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 12.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.5pp
P 9.9
F 12.1
V 8.6
3.6pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 11.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 8.3
F 11.3
V 11.3
3.0pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 7.2
F 11.1
V 12.0
4.8pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 7
 10.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.7
F 10.9
V 8.2
3.2pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 6.5
F 9.9
V 9.8
3.3pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 5.8
F 9.9
V 10.1
4.3pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 11.7%Fangorn 10.1%market +1.6pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 11.6
1.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
33
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 7
 11.1%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.5pp
P 8.6
F 11.1
V 8.3
2.8pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
34
Jahmai Jones DET
IN
DET vs LADBlake Snell · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 13.6%market +0.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.1
V 11.9
3.6pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
35
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 13.3%market -0.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 10.2
2.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
36
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
 9.9%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.1pp
P 9.8
F 9.9
V 11.0
1.2pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
37
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.3pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 12.8
0.4pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
38
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 14.9%market -2.4pp
P 12.4
F 12.6
V 12.2
0.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
39
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.4pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 10.7
1.1pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
40
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 13.8
1.3pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
41
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 11.7%Fangorn 14.9%market -3.2pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.3
1.0pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
42
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.0pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 12.7
2.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
43
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
 12.1%Fangorn 16.5%market -4.4pp
P 10.7
F 12.1
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
44
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 3.5%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.5pp
P 3.4
F 3.5
V 9.3
5.9pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
46
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 11.3%Fangorn 16.3%market -5.0pp
P 11.4
F 11.3
V 13.7
2.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
47
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 17.2%market -5.1pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 13.5
1.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
48
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs LADBlake Snell · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 14.7
2.1pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
49
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 14.4
1.9pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
50
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.9pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 13.3
1.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.2pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
52
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.9pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.8
1.6pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
53
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 11.9%Fangorn 18.9%market -7.0pp
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 14.3
3.1pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
54
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 19.8%market -7.2pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 14.4
1.8pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
55
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
 11.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.4pp
P 12.0
F 11.9
V 11.6
0.4pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
56
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.4
V 13.3
1.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
57
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.5pp
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 14.0
1.7pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
58
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 11.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -9.0pp
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 14.7
2.8pp 0.945xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
59
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 22.0%market -9.8pp
P 11.3
F 12.1
V 12.1
0.8pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
60
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.9pp
P 11.7
F 11.9
V 14.5
2.7pp 1.044xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
61
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.6pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 12.0
0.6pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
62
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 26.3%market -14.6pp
P 13.2
F 11.7
V 13.9
2.2pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
63
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 29.8%market -17.3pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 18.1
5.6pp 1.123xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2437roster/transaction rows
Lineups306confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.