Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-10-24 Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
3
Matched
9
Lineups
18
HR BOARD 2026-10-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.121, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.124, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.120, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-10-26
Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 10.1%Valinor 10.1%market -0.4pp
P 11.5
F 12.4
V 10.1
2.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
02
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 11.2%Valinor 12.5%market -1.7pp
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 11.2
1.2pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
03
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
 13.0%Valinor 16.7%market -4.3pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 13.0
1.0pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows
No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

1118 sample flags
Status1500roster/transaction rows
Lineups18confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.