Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-21 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-21
75 matched props 82 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-22 Older: 2026-07-20

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 75
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 82
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-21 | Raw sportsbook rows: 75 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-21/strikeout_edges_2026-07-21.json
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs LAA | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.77
Strongest Gap Under +21.40%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +113 / U -143
Over gap -27.20% / Under gap +21.40%
Under +21.40%
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -23.35% / Under gap +17.29%
Under +17.29%
Model O 19.8% | U 80.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.6
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap Under +13.75%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -19.74% / Under gap +13.75%
Under +13.75%
DraftKings
4.5
O -144 / U +114
Over gap -17.82% / Under gap +12.07%
Under +12.07%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -17.80% / Under gap +11.10%
Under +11.10%
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.3
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs ATL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.26
Strongest Gap Under +13.32%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +163 / U -167
Over gap -13.89% / Under gap +13.32%
Under +13.32%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -16.38% / Under gap +10.46%
Under +10.46%
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -16.38% / Under gap +10.46%
Under +10.46%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -16.93% / Under gap +9.48%
Under +9.48%
FanDuel
5.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -6.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +186 / U --
Over gap -10.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -17.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.1% | U 75.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 21.1
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.02
Strongest Gap Over +10.25%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +129 / U -165
Over gap +10.25% / Under gap -16.18%
Over +10.25%
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap +8.11% / Under gap -14.19%
Over +8.11%
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +6.30% / Under gap -13.92%
Over +6.30%
Model O 53.9% | U 46.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.6
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
SEA vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.58
Strongest Gap Under +8.76%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -173 / U +126
Over gap -16.38% / Under gap +8.76%
Under +8.76%
BetMGM
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -14.55% / Under gap +7.56%
Under +7.56%
FanDuel
6.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -10.41% / Under gap +4.43%
Under +4.43%
Model O 47.0% | U 53.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.5
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs TOR | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.89
Strongest Gap Under +8.18%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +103 / U -131
Over gap -14.15% / Under gap +8.18%
Under +8.18%
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -13.91% / Under gap +7.99%
Under +7.99%
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -13.91% / Under gap +7.99%
Under +7.99%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -13.67% / Under gap +6.56%
Under +6.56%
FanDuel
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -4.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -16.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -18.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.1% | U 64.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 49.9
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs TB | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.70
Strongest Gap Over +7.19%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +7.19% / Under gap --
Over +7.19%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap --
Over +5.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +0.65% / Under gap -6.71%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +0.65% / Under gap -6.71%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -103 / U -126
Over gap -2.01% / Under gap -4.48%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -3.65% / Under gap -3.28%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -4.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -6.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -7.25% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.9% | U 76.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 57.5
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs BOS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.69
Strongest Gap Over +6.51%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +6.51% / Under gap --
Over +6.51%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +5.56% / Under gap --
Over +5.56%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap +0.96% / Under gap -6.91%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap +0.96% / Under gap -6.91%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +0.96% / Under gap -8.58%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +0.50% / Under gap -6.56%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -4.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -6.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -6.40% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.8% | U 76.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 68.7
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs WSH | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.06
Strongest Gap Over +6.05%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +6.05% / Under gap -12.07%
Over +6.05%
DraftKings
3.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap +4.57% / Under gap -10.71%
Over +4.57%
Model O 55.5% | U 44.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.15
Strongest Gap Under +5.28%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -11.33% / Under gap +5.28%
Under +5.28%
FanDuel
5.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -11.33% / Under gap +5.28%
Under +5.28%
DraftKings
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -9.91% / Under gap +3.85%
Under +3.85%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -9.41% / Under gap +1.96%
Under +1.96%
FanDuel
7.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -1.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -4.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -15.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.6% | U 59.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.9
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
SF vs KC | 8 books
Play
Adj K 3.99
Strongest Gap Under +4.81%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -11.92% / Under gap +4.81%
Under +4.81%
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -6.62% / Under gap +0.73%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -6.62% / Under gap +0.73%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +134 / U -168
Over gap -5.88% / Under gap +0.45%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -1.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -3.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -10.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -11.11% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 34.5
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs LAD | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 6.77
Strongest Gap Under +2.66%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -139 / U +109
Over gap -8.67% / Under gap +2.66%
Under +2.66%
FanDuel
6.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -7.03% / Under gap +1.01%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -7.03% / Under gap +1.01%
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +0.18% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
7.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -6.38% / Under gap -0.74%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -11.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -13.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -13.99% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 49.5% | U 50.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 68.7
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs CHC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap No Play +0.28%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +0.28% / Under gap -6.38%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +0.28% / Under gap -7.26%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -124 / U -102
Over gap -1.59% / Under gap -4.27%
No Play
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.