Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-20 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-20
120 matched props 45 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-21 Older: 2026-07-19

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 120
Grouped Pitchers 22
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 45
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-20 | Raw sportsbook rows: 120 | Grouped pitcher entries: 22 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-20/strikeout_edges_2026-07-20.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs NYM | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 6.02
Strongest Gap Under +31.51%
Best Line 8.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
8.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -38.96% / Under gap +31.51%
Under +31.51%
FanDuel
8.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -36.46% / Under gap +30.53%
Under +30.53%
FanDuel
8.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -36.46% / Under gap +30.53%
Under +30.53%
DraftKings
9.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap -34.11% / Under gap +28.08%
Under +28.08%
FanDuel
5.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -41.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -46.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -47.16% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.5% | U 81.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 65.6
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.54
Strongest Gap Under +22.05%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -28.04% / Under gap +22.05%
Under +22.05%
DraftKings
6.5
O -144 / U +113
Over gap -26.12% / Under gap +20.15%
Under +20.15%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -25.43% / Under gap +18.32%
Under +18.32%
Model O 32.9% | U 67.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 74.5
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Under +18.90%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -25.68% / Under gap +18.90%
Under +18.90%
DraftKings
6.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap -22.77% / Under gap +16.83%
Under +16.83%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -19.91% / Under gap +13.83%
Under +13.83%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -19.91% / Under gap +13.83%
Under +13.83%
FanDuel
8.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap -7.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -22.62% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -26.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap -26.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.5% | U 74.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 43.1
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.05
Strongest Gap Under +17.65%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -160 / U +125
Over gap -23.63% / Under gap +17.65%
Under +17.65%
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -22.72% / Under gap +16.64%
Under +16.64%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -21.27% / Under gap +13.31%
Under +13.31%
Model O 37.9% | U 62.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 46.2
Bryce Elder headshot

Bryce Elder
ATL vs SD | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.89
Strongest Gap Over +16.61%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +16.61% / Under gap --
Over +16.61%
FanDuel
4.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap +15.68% / Under gap --
Over +15.68%
DraftKings
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +12.10% / Under gap -18.24%
Over +12.10%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +10.26% / Under gap -16.32%
Over +10.26%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +10.26% / Under gap -16.32%
Over +10.26%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +8.24% / Under gap -15.86%
Over +8.24%
FanDuel
2.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap +3.34% / Under gap --
Over +3.34%
Model O 36.6% | U 63.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 34.4
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Under +14.24%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -20.19% / Under gap +14.24%
Under +14.24%
DraftKings
6.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -19.31% / Under gap +13.32%
Under +13.32%
BetMGM
6.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -15.35% / Under gap +8.37%
Under +8.37%
Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 68.6
Emmet Sheehan headshot

Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs PHI | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap Under +13.08%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -20.19% / Under gap +13.08%
Under +13.08%
DraftKings
5.5
O -121 / U -104
Over gap -16.61% / Under gap +10.88%
Under +10.88%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -15.99% / Under gap +9.94%
Under +9.94%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -15.99% / Under gap +9.94%
Under +9.94%
FanDuel
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -5.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +186 / U --
Over gap -9.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -12.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -17.45% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -19.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 59.9
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs CLE | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.02
Strongest Gap Under +10.49%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -16.63% / Under gap +10.49%
Under +10.49%
FanDuel
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -13.54% / Under gap +7.44%
Under +7.44%
FanDuel
6.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -13.54% / Under gap +7.44%
Under +7.44%
BetMGM
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -12.87% / Under gap +5.94%
Under +5.94%
FanDuel
8.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap -4.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -10.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -16.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -19.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -20.47% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 73.6
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs MIN | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.21
Strongest Gap Over +9.50%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +9.50% / Under gap --
Over +9.50%
FanDuel
5.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap +9.23% / Under gap --
Over +9.23%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +3.71% / Under gap -9.81%
Over +3.71%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +3.71% / Under gap -9.81%
Over +3.71%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +3.27% / Under gap -10.25%
Over +3.27%
DraftKings
4.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap +0.43% / Under gap -6.51%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -1.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -4.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.4% | U 71.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 61.8
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs TB | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 6.54
Strongest Gap Under +7.46%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -13.41% / Under gap +7.46%
Under +7.46%
FanDuel
8.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -10.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -20.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -21.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -22.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.2% | U 65.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 63.5
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.91
Strongest Gap Under +6.56%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -12.62% / Under gap +6.56%
Under +6.56%
DraftKings
4.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -11.27% / Under gap +5.36%
Under +5.36%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -9.99% / Under gap +3.00%
Under +3.00%
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 28.3
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs SF | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.73
Strongest Gap Over +5.86%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +5.86% / Under gap --
Over +5.86%
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap +4.29% / Under gap --
Over +4.29%
DraftKings
4.5
O +105 / U -134
Over gap +0.59% / Under gap -6.63%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap +0.59% / Under gap -8.55%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +0.35% / Under gap -6.27%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +0.35% / Under gap -6.27%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -6.37% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 45.4
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs MIL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.71
Strongest Gap Over +5.46%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap +5.46% / Under gap --
Over +5.46%
FanDuel
6.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap +3.49% / Under gap --
Over +3.49%
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +0.79% / Under gap -6.85%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -5.39%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -5.39%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -1.13% / Under gap -6.32%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -5.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -6.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -6.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.0% | U 76.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 72.2
Jameson Taillon headshot

Jameson Taillon
CHC vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.68
Strongest Gap Over +5.46%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap +5.46% / Under gap -11.52%
Over +5.46%
BetMGM
4.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap +5.08% / Under gap -12.20%
Over +5.08%
DraftKings
3.5
O -159 / U +124
Over gap +3.95% / Under gap -9.98%
Over +3.95%
Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 44.2
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs BOS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.89
Strongest Gap Under +5.06%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -11.01% / Under gap +5.06%
Under +5.06%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -11.01% / Under gap +5.06%
Under +5.06%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -12.17% / Under gap +5.06%
Under +5.06%
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -10.12% / Under gap +4.21%
Under +4.21%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -1.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -13.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -15.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -15.89% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.6% | U 63.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 51.7
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.13
Strongest Gap Under +4.04%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -9.97% / Under gap +4.04%
Under +4.04%
DraftKings
6.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap -9.73% / Under gap +3.63%
Under +3.63%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -6.61% / Under gap -1.01%
No Play
Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 58.3
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs STL | 2 books
Play
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Over +3.45%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -153 / U +120
Over gap +3.45% / Under gap -9.37%
Over +3.45%
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +1.98% / Under gap -7.83%
Over +1.98%
Model O 63.9% | U 36.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 53.4
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs TOR | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.49
Strongest Gap Over +3.12%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +3.12% / Under gap --
Over +3.12%
FanDuel
4.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +3.10% / Under gap --
Over +3.10%
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -0.38% / Under gap -5.70%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -0.38% / Under gap -5.70%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap -0.80% / Under gap -5.23%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -1.44% / Under gap -5.85%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -5.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.9% | U 84.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 35.1
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs AZ | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.94
Strongest Gap Over +2.47%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap +2.47% / Under gap -8.40%
Over +2.47%
DraftKings
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -0.04% / Under gap -6.06%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap -3.45%
No Play
Model O 53.4% | U 46.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 31.6
Jp Sears headshot

Jp Sears
SD vs ATL | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 3.95
Strongest Gap Over +1.92%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap +1.92% / Under gap --
Over +1.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -0.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -4.35% / Under gap -1.71%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -6.52% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.3% | U 77.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 31.3
Erick Fedde headshot

Erick Fedde
CWS vs TEX | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.63
Strongest Gap No Play +0.59%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +0.59% / Under gap -6.44%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap -0.55% / Under gap -5.39%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -3.46% / Under gap -3.32%
No Play
Model O 47.8% | U 52.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 38.5
Jack Flaherty headshot

Jack Flaherty
DET vs CHC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.41
Strongest Gap No Play +0.15%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap -6.25% / Under gap +0.15%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -5.01% / Under gap -1.01%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -5.51% / Under gap -1.94%
No Play
Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 54.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.