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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-22 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-22
119 matched props 92 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-23 Older: 2026-07-21

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 119
Grouped Pitchers 18
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 92
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-22 | Raw sportsbook rows: 119 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-22/strikeout_edges_2026-07-22.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs COL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.40
Strongest Gap Under +29.66%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -36.44% / Under gap +29.66%
Under +29.66%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -34.72% / Under gap +28.70%
Under +28.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -34.72% / Under gap +28.70%
Under +28.70%
DraftKings
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -32.84% / Under gap +26.89%
Under +26.89%
FanDuel
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -14.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -22.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -32.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -40.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -42.22% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 14.8% | U 85.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap Under +21.39%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -27.53% / Under gap +21.39%
Under +21.39%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -27.53% / Under gap +21.39%
Under +21.39%
DraftKings
5.5
O -127 / U -101
Over gap -27.34% / Under gap +21.14%
Under +21.14%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -6.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -12.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -19.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -20.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -27.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -31.26% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.6% | U 71.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.2
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs ATH | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Over +18.27%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +18.27% / Under gap --
Over +18.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +18.12% / Under gap --
Over +18.12%
FanDuel
3.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +12.42% / Under gap -18.48%
Over +12.42%
FanDuel
3.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +12.42% / Under gap -18.48%
Over +12.42%
DraftKings
3.5
O -141 / U +110
Over gap +9.47% / Under gap -15.60%
Over +9.47%
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap +4.96% / Under gap --
Over +4.96%
Model O 51.6% | U 48.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.5
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs SEA | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.34
Strongest Gap Under +13.69%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +106 / U -139
Over gap -20.39% / Under gap +13.69%
Under +13.69%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -19.47% / Under gap +13.52%
Under +13.52%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -19.47% / Under gap +13.52%
Under +13.52%
FanDuel
7.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap -7.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -12.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -18.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -23.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -25.34% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.1% | U 71.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.1
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs KC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.22
Strongest Gap Under +12.73%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -18.72% / Under gap +12.73%
Under +12.73%
FanDuel
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -18.72% / Under gap +12.73%
Under +12.73%
DraftKings
5.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap -18.11% / Under gap +12.13%
Under +12.13%
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -19.12% / Under gap +12.13%
Under +12.13%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -7.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -12.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -18.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -23.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -23.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.3% | U 73.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
BAL vs BOS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.54
Strongest Gap Under +9.87%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +9.87%
Under +9.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +9.87%
Under +9.87%
DraftKings
4.5
O -145 / U +113
Over gap -12.91% / Under gap +6.78%
Under +6.78%
FanDuel
7.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -3.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -6.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -11.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -12.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -16.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.3% | U 53.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.4
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs SF | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap Over +9.29%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +460 / U --
Over gap +9.29% / Under gap --
Over +9.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap +8.38% / Under gap --
Over +8.38%
DraftKings
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +5.43% / Under gap -11.57%
Over +5.43%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +5.43% / Under gap -12.88%
Over +5.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +3.51% / Under gap -9.56%
Over +3.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +3.51% / Under gap -9.56%
Over +3.51%
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -1.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -3.63% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.2% | U 72.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs ATL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap Over +8.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +8.43% / Under gap --
Over +8.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap +7.77% / Under gap --
Over +7.77%
DraftKings
4.5
O +105 / U -133
Over gap +6.05% / Under gap -11.91%
Over +6.05%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +3.61% / Under gap -10.39%
Over +3.61%
FanDuel
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +3.37% / Under gap -9.38%
Over +3.37%
FanDuel
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +3.37% / Under gap -9.38%
Over +3.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -1.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -2.94% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.6% | U 73.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.4
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs BOS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.72
Strongest Gap Over +7.97%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +7.97% / Under gap --
Over +7.97%
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap +7.21% / Under gap --
Over +7.21%
FanDuel
5.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +5.15% / Under gap -11.13%
Over +5.15%
DraftKings
5.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -9.17%
Over +3.14%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap +1.39% / Under gap -7.34%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +1.39% / Under gap -9.01%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -1.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -4.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -6.22% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.1% | U 75.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.6
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
LAD vs PHI | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.18
Strongest Gap Over +7.21%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap +7.21% / Under gap --
Over +7.21%
FanDuel
4.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +5.68% / Under gap --
Over +5.68%
DraftKings
3.5
O -114 / U -112
Over gap +4.31% / Under gap -10.41%
Over +4.31%
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +1.06% / Under gap -7.08%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +1.06% / Under gap -7.08%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.7% | U 74.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.1
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.78
Strongest Gap Under +5.97%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -11.95% / Under gap +5.97%
Under +5.97%
DraftKings
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -11.07% / Under gap +5.19%
Under +5.19%
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -11.60% / Under gap +4.31%
Under +4.31%
Model O 50.2% | U 49.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.8
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs CHC | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.29
Strongest Gap Under +5.83%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap +5.83%
Under +5.83%
DraftKings
3.5
O -109 / U -117
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap +4.96%
Under +4.96%
Model O 41.1% | U 58.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.9
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs MIN | 6 books
Play
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Over +4.87%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +4.87% / Under gap --
Over +4.87%
FanDuel
4.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap +2.95% / Under gap --
Over +2.95%
DraftKings
3.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -0.62% / Under gap -5.36%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +124
Over gap -1.88% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +124
Over gap -1.88% / Under gap -3.70%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -4.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.1% | U 72.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.8
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs NYY | 6 books
Play
Adj K 4.30
Strongest Gap Over +4.81%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +4.81% / Under gap --
Over +4.81%
FanDuel
4.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap +2.22% / Under gap --
Over +2.22%
DraftKings
3.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap -0.77% / Under gap -5.21%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -2.86% / Under gap -3.03%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -2.86% / Under gap -3.03%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -6.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.5% | U 72.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs DET | 2 books
Play
Adj K 4.42
Strongest Gap Under +3.59%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -118 / U -109
Over gap -9.87% / Under gap +3.59%
Under +3.59%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -6.24% / Under gap +0.18%
No Play
Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.8
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs LAD | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 5.38
Strongest Gap Over +2.90%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +2.90% / Under gap --
Over +2.90%
FanDuel
6.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap +0.84% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -140
Over gap -4.03% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -2.73%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -2.73%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -7.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2000 / U --
Over gap -8.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -9.62% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.1% | U 79.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.8
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs CLE | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 4.29
Strongest Gap Over +2.84%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +2.84% / Under gap --
Over +2.84%
FanDuel
5.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +1.42% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +127 / U -164
Over gap -2.00% / Under gap -4.17%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -2.59% / Under gap -3.29%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -2.59% / Under gap -3.29%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -7.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -560 / U --
Over gap -8.21% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.5% | U 83.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.5
Hunter Dobbins headshot

Hunter Dobbins
STL vs LAA | 5 books
No Play
Adj K 3.48
Strongest Gap No Play -6.05%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -11.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +122 / U --
Over gap -17.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -19.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -19.42% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 8.2% | U 91.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.