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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-23 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-23
18 matched props 14 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-24 Older: 2026-07-22

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 18
Grouped Pitchers 6
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 14
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-23 | Raw sportsbook rows: 18 | Grouped pitcher entries: 6 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-23/strikeout_edges_2026-07-23.json
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.75
Strongest Gap Under +16.81%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -143 / U +111
Over gap -23.05% / Under gap +16.81%
Under +16.81%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -22.53% / Under gap +15.42%
Under +15.42%
FanDuel
6.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -19.76% / Under gap +13.70%
Under +13.70%
Model O 35.8% | U 64.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.7
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs CLE | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.06
Strongest Gap Under +14.28%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -21.57% / Under gap +14.28%
Under +14.28%
DraftKings
6.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +13.34%
Under +13.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -19.11% / Under gap +13.03%
Under +13.03%
Model O 39.2% | U 60.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.8
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.46
Strongest Gap Over +13.53%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap +13.53% / Under gap -19.70%
Over +13.53%
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +13.29% / Under gap -20.40%
Over +13.29%
DraftKings
3.5
O -101 / U -124
Over gap +11.82% / Under gap -17.43%
Over +11.82%
Model O 62.1% | U 37.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.3
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.42
Strongest Gap Under +11.73%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -17.79% / Under gap +11.73%
Under +11.73%
FanDuel
7.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -13.16% / Under gap +7.29%
Under +7.29%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -14.91% / Under gap +7.29%
Under +7.29%
Model O 32.7% | U 67.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.0
Shane Bieber headshot

Shane Bieber
TOR vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.98
Strongest Gap Over +8.47%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +123 / U -155
Over gap +8.47% / Under gap -14.09%
Over +8.47%
FanDuel
4.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +7.86% / Under gap -13.94%
Over +7.86%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +6.80% / Under gap -14.09%
Over +6.80%
Model O 53.3% | U 46.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.5
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs AZ | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.01
Strongest Gap Under +3.79%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -11.08% / Under gap +3.79%
Under +3.79%
DraftKings
3.5
O +130 / U -167
Over gap -8.05% / Under gap +2.02%
Under +2.02%
FanDuel
3.5
O +142 / U -184
Over gap -5.89% / Under gap -0.22%
No Play
Model O 35.4% | U 64.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.