Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-24 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-24

57 matched props 24 unmatched

Newer: 2026-07-25 Older: 2026-07-23

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 57

Grouped Pitchers 19

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 24

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-24 | Raw sportsbook rows: 57 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-24/strikeout_edges_2026-07-24.json

Bryce Miller

SEA vs TEX | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.37

Strongest Gap Under +25.73%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -154 / U +119

Over gap -32.02% / Under gap +25.73%

Under +25.73%

FanDuel

5.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -30.07% / Under gap +24.22%

Under +24.22%

BetMGM

5.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -28.84% / Under gap +21.39%

Under +21.39%

Model O 28.6% | U 71.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.4

Tarik Skubal

DET vs KC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.55

Strongest Gap Under +19.79%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap -25.66% / Under gap +19.79%

Under +19.79%

DraftKings

7.5

O -175 / U +112

Over gap -29.30% / Under gap +18.49%

Under +18.49%

BetMGM

7.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -23.11% / Under gap +15.66%

Under +15.66%

Model O 34.3% | U 65.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.3

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.86

Strongest Gap Under +16.23%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -22.29% / Under gap +16.23%

Under +16.23%

FanDuel

7.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -19.66% / Under gap +13.58%

Under +13.58%

BetMGM

7.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -20.72% / Under gap +13.43%

Under +13.43%

Model O 25.8% | U 74.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.1

Dustin May

STL vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.61

Strongest Gap Under +15.79%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -117 / U -108

Over gap -21.63% / Under gap +15.79%

Under +15.79%

FanDuel

5.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -18.21% / Under gap +12.15%

Under +12.15%

BetMGM

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -18.93% / Under gap +12.15%

Under +12.15%

Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.7

Jesús Luzardo

PHI vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.44

Strongest Gap Under +14.21%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -117 / U -112

Over gap -20.96% / Under gap +14.21%

Under +14.21%

FanDuel

7.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -18.50% / Under gap +12.49%

Under +12.49%

BetMGM

7.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -18.26% / Under gap +11.48%

Under +11.48%

Model O 33.0% | U 67.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.2

Zebby Matthews

MIN vs ATH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.24

Strongest Gap Over +11.86%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap +11.86% / Under gap -19.15%

Over +11.86%

DraftKings

4.5

O +117 / U -154

Over gap +11.12% / Under gap -17.83%

Over +11.12%

FanDuel

4.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap +10.03% / Under gap -15.88%

Over +10.03%

Model O 72.6% | U 27.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.15

Strongest Gap Under +6.15%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -12.93% / Under gap +6.15%

Under +6.15%

DraftKings

3.5

O +106 / U -135

Over gap -10.25% / Under gap +4.26%

Under +4.26%

FanDuel

3.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -10.25% / Under gap +4.08%

Under +4.08%

Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.1

Matthew Boyd

CHC vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.02

Strongest Gap Under +5.07%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -11.15% / Under gap +5.07%

Under +5.07%

BetMGM

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -11.40% / Under gap +3.95%

Under +3.95%

FanDuel

5.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -9.94% / Under gap +3.77%

Under +3.77%

Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.1

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs MIN | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.71

Strongest Gap Over +4.22%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap +4.22% / Under gap -11.21%

Over +4.22%

FanDuel

4.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap +4.00% / Under gap -9.99%

Over +4.00%

DraftKings

4.5

O +120 / U -156

Over gap +3.60% / Under gap -9.99%

Over +3.60%

Model O 65.8% | U 34.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.4

Spencer Arrighetti

HOU vs CWS | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.97

Strongest Gap Under +3.83%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -10.94% / Under gap +3.83%

Under +3.83%

FanDuel

5.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -9.33% / Under gap +3.48%

Under +3.48%

DraftKings

5.5

O +113 / U -145

Over gap -9.11% / Under gap +2.98%

Under +2.98%

Model O 37.8% | U 62.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.0

Grant Holmes

ATL vs BAL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.88

Strongest Gap Under +3.41%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -158 / U +123

Over gap -9.49% / Under gap +3.41%

Under +3.41%

FanDuel

4.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -8.88% / Under gap +2.80%

Under +2.80%

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -10.05% / Under gap +2.76%

Under +2.76%

Model O 51.7% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.5

Sean Manaea

NYM vs LAD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.00

Strongest Gap Under +3.37%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -10.48% / Under gap +3.37%

Under +3.37%

DraftKings

5.5

O +128 / U -150

Over gap -5.56% / Under gap +1.70%

Under +1.70%

FanDuel

5.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +1.70%

Under +1.70%

Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.7

Germán Márquez

SD vs MIA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 3.19

Strongest Gap Under +3.27%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +107 / U -136

Over gap -9.21% / Under gap +3.27%

Under +3.27%

BetMGM

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -7.41% / Under gap +0.12%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +124 / U -160

Over gap -5.54% / Under gap -0.64%

No Play

Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.9

Trevor Rogers

BAL vs ATL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.81

Strongest Gap Under +3.05%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap -9.03% / Under gap +3.05%

Under +3.05%

FanDuel

4.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -6.25% / Under gap +0.33%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -4.91% / Under gap -1.87%

No Play

Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3

Davis Martin

CWS vs HOU | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.21

Strongest Gap Under +1.87%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -9.32% / Under gap +1.87%

Under +1.87%

FanDuel

4.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -6.49% / Under gap +0.64%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +118 / U -153

Over gap -5.19% / Under gap -1.15%

No Play

Model O 40.7% | U 59.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.3

MacKenzie Gore

TEX vs SEA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.09

Strongest Gap No Play +1.20%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -8.31% / Under gap +1.20%

No Play

DraftKings

6.5

O +132 / U -158

Over gap -2.63% / Under gap -1.71%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O +124 / U -158

Over gap -4.17% / Under gap -1.71%

No Play

Model O 40.5% | U 59.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.1

Logan Webb

SF vs LAA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.08

Strongest Gap No Play +0.93%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -6.92% / Under gap +0.93%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -155 / U +121

Over gap -6.76% / Under gap +0.73%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -4.31% / Under gap -2.80%

No Play

Model O 54.0% | U 46.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.3

Joey Cantillo

CLE vs TB | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.92

Strongest Gap No Play +0.45%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -6.30% / Under gap +0.45%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -144 / U +112

Over gap -6.64% / Under gap +0.45%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -5.07% / Under gap -2.38%

No Play

Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ vs WSH | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.31

Strongest Gap No Play -1.08%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +113 / U -142

Over gap -4.55% / Under gap -1.08%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -4.77% / Under gap -1.08%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -6.38% / Under gap -1.58%

No Play

Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.