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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-01 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-01
37 matched props 28 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-02 Older: 2026-07-31

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 37
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 28
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-01 | Raw sportsbook rows: 37 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-01/strikeout_edges_2026-08-01.json
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs CWS | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap Under +24.67%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -30.84% / Under gap +24.67%
Under +24.67%
DraftKings
5.5
O -130 / U +101
Over gap -29.73% / Under gap +23.46%
Under +23.46%
Model O 26.8% | U 73.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.5
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs HOU | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.36
Strongest Gap Under +17.20%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap -23.28% / Under gap +17.20%
Under +17.20%
FanDuel
6.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -20.08% / Under gap +14.02%
Under +14.02%
Model O 30.4% | U 69.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.2
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.99
Strongest Gap Under +13.78%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +109 / U -143
Over gap -20.48% / Under gap +13.78%
Under +13.78%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -19.23% / Under gap +12.12%
Under +12.12%
FanDuel
7.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -17.27% / Under gap +11.39%
Under +11.39%
Model O 27.4% | U 72.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.6
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.38
Strongest Gap Under +12.91%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -20.02% / Under gap +12.91%
Under +12.91%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +128
Over gap -18.83% / Under gap +12.56%
Under +12.56%
DraftKings
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -17.54% / Under gap +11.56%
Under +11.56%
Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.0
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.63
Strongest Gap Under +12.01%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -19.46% / Under gap +12.01%
Under +12.01%
DraftKings
4.5
O +117 / U -149
Over gap -15.54% / Under gap +9.62%
Under +9.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -13.32% / Under gap +7.34%
Under +7.34%
Model O 30.5% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs BOS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Under +6.30%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -12.36% / Under gap +6.30%
Under +6.30%
DraftKings
6.5
O +101 / U -128
Over gap -11.61% / Under gap +5.72%
Under +5.72%
BetMGM
6.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -10.64% / Under gap +2.68%
Under +2.68%
Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.4
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs PHI | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.22
Strongest Gap Under +4.86%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -11.84% / Under gap +4.86%
Under +4.86%
DraftKings
5.5
O +100 / U -125
Over gap -8.35% / Under gap +2.79%
Under +2.79%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -5.97% / Under gap +0.02%
No Play
Model O 41.6% | U 58.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs STL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Over +3.98%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +109 / U -136
Over gap +3.98% / Under gap -9.46%
Over +3.98%
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +3.75% / Under gap -9.81%
Over +3.75%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +0.61% / Under gap -7.39%
No Play
Model O 51.8% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.8
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs MIN | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 6.46
Strongest Gap Under +2.63%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -8.68% / Under gap +2.63%
Under +2.63%
DraftKings
6.5
O -115 / U -110
Over gap -8.04% / Under gap +2.17%
Under +2.17%
BetMGM
6.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -8.04% / Under gap +1.06%
No Play
Model O 45.5% | U 54.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.5
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap No Play +1.37%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +1.37% / Under gap -7.30%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -127 / U -103
Over gap +0.37% / Under gap -7.06%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -1.13% / Under gap -6.32%
No Play
Model O 56.3% | U 43.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.5
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.91
Strongest Gap No Play +0.57%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -7.86% / Under gap +0.57%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -5.76% / Under gap -0.09%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -139 / U +108
Over gap -5.24% / Under gap -1.00%
No Play
Model O 52.9% | U 47.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.4
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
SF vs SD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.06
Strongest Gap No Play +0.01%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -158 / U +125
Over gap -5.69% / Under gap +0.01%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -5.99% / Under gap -0.19%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -6.36% / Under gap -0.34%
No Play
Model O 55.5% | U 44.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.4
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs NYY | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.11
Strongest Gap No Play -1.36%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +117
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap -1.36%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap -1.58%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -2.17% / Under gap -5.28%
No Play
Model O 55.3% | U 44.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.